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PGRThe Progressive Corporation
$203.13$119.2B
Overview & Tools
OverviewChart Terminal ↗Visualize
Valuation & Forecasts
Valuation ModelsEstimatesDCF Model
Price & Analyst Data
Analyst TargetsPrice History
Financial Statements
Income StatementBalance SheetCash FlowRatios & Margins
Performance
P/E HistoryRevenue HistoryEarnings HistoryDividend HistoryTotal Return
Discovery & Screens
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PGR logo

The Progressive Corporation

PGR
NYSE · Property & Casualty Insurance
$203.13
At close - Sep 23, 4:00 PM EDT - USD
Market Cap$119.22B
P/E10.6x
52W High$248.17
Volume4.26M
OverviewTerminalAnalysisFinancialsValuationEarningsBreakoutsOwnership
VCP Research Verdict2026Q1

Underwriting Discipline Drives Sustained Premium Growth Trajectory

Progressive demonstrates a robust fundamental outlook characterized by consistent revenue expansion and superior underwriting efficiency, as evidenced by a 2026Q1 combined ratio of 83.9%. While the company maintains a fortress balance sheet with equity growing...

GrowthExpanding
ProfitabilityStrong
ValuationReview
TechnicalsWeak
Explore valuation models
MARKET ACTION

PGR price & volume

Price trend, volume and key moving averages

Launch Terminal
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Decision Checklist4 Core Signals

What matters now

The signals most likely to change the investment case.

01

Earnings momentum

8/12 Beats

EPS beat 8 of last 12 quarters

02

Valuation risk

-20% Peers

P/E is 20% below peer median

03

Market leadership

RS 59 · Avg

Average momentum (RS Rating: 59)

04

Weak Trend

Below 200DMA

Price < 200DMA

Next CatalystEstimated earnings · Oct 15
01

Build the investment case

Start with the evidence for owning the stock and the risks that can break the thesis.

EXECUTIVE THESIS

The Investment Case

Full Analysis
Fundamental Trajectory

Progressive maintains strong underwriting discipline, consistently achieving a combined ratio well below its 96% target, most recently reaching 83.9% in 2026Q1 despite an 8.7% year-over-year revenue growth rate.

Analyst Consensus+8.7% target
Hold(42 analysts)
16 Buy22 Hold4 Sell

The Bull Case

Upside Catalysts

Technological Innovation & Data Moat

Progressive’s usage‑based insurance leverages telematics and data analytics to personalize premiums, creating a significant data moat that enhances underwriting and customer retention. The company’s technology edge drives lower loss ratios and higher customer acquisition efficiency.

Operational Efficiency & Profitability

Progressive consistently outperforms peers in its combined ratio, reflecting superior underwriting and claims management. Profit margins have improved and earnings per share have grown substantially, underscoring operational excellence.

Market Leadership & Distribution Model

As the second‑largest personal auto insurer in the U.S., Progressive holds nearly 27 million personal auto policies in force. Its hybrid direct‑to‑consumer and independent‑agent distribution appeals to a broad customer base.

The Bear Case

Key Downside Risks

Market performance

Price History →

Trailing total returns as of 9/24/2026, which may include dividends or other distributions. Benchmark is S&P 500 (^GSPC).

YTD Return
PGR+2.27%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+12.39%
1-Year Return
PGR-9.04%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+15.77%
3-Year Return
PGR+56.64%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+75.76%
5-Year Return
PGR+146.13%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+71.09%
02

Test the fundamentals

Check whether operating performance supports the current valuation.

VALUATION & INTRINSIC VALUE

Valuation Scenarios

Valuation Analysis
Trailing P/E5Y Low
10.6x
Forward P/E
11.3x
EV/EBITDA0th %ile
8.7x
FCF YieldCash Flow
14.4%

Valuation vs 5-Year History

Multiple Range
Metric
Current
5Y Median
Historical Range
Percentile
P/E
10.6x
18.1x
0th· Low
EV/EBITDA
8.7x
14.3x
0th· Low
Price/FCF
6.9x
9.0x
0th· Low
Current Multiple
5Y Median (50th %ile)

Intrinsic Value Scenarios

DCF Projection
Bear$215.60+6.1%
Base (Fair)$417.63+95.6%
Bull$715.22+252.1%
$215.60 Bear$417.63 Base$715.22 Bull
Current Market Price: $203.13
Trades at a 51.4% discount to Base DCF ($417.63)
Open DCF & Valuation Models →Chart Terminal ↗

Growth & profitability

Annual revenue & EPS trend
Revenue
$87.64B+16.3% YoY
Net income
$11.31B+33.3% YoY
Free cash flow
$17.2B+15.9% YoY
Operating margin
16.2%+2.0 pts YoY
ROIC (TTM)30.7%
Avg ROIC 5Y-
ROE (TTM)40.4%
Piotroski Score7 / 9
Financial Statements →
03

Monitor what changed

Recent results and news deserve attention only when they alter the forward view.

OPERATING RESULTS

Recent Earnings

Earnings History
EPS Beat Rate8/12 (67%)
Revenue Beat Rate7/12 (58%)
QuarterEPS (Act vs Est)Revenue (Act vs Est)
Q3 2026Latest
Jul 15, 2026
$4.85+4.5%
vs $4.64
$21.1B+8.2%
vs $19.5B
Q2 2026
Apr 15, 2026
$4.81-0.8%
vs $4.85
$23.6B+2.9%
vs $23.0B
Q1 2026
Jan 28, 2026
$4.67+5.2%
vs $4.44
$19.5B-3.9%
vs $20.3B
Q4 2025
Oct 15, 2025
$4.05-18.8%
vs $4.99
$21.4B-1.9%
vs $21.8B
Historical baseline: 12 quarters analyzedGAAP / Adjusted
MARKET COVERAGE

Latest News

5 Stories
24/7 Wall Street·2d ago
Progressive's Trailing Yield Is Wildly Misleading. Here Is What It Actually Pays

Most income investors screening Progressive see a yield figure and assume it reflects what they will actually collect. The reality is far stranger, and far more consequential for anyone buying shares today.

Defense World·3d ago
Comparing Progressive (NYSE:PGR) and AON (NYSE:AON)

AON (NYSE: AON - Get Free Report) and Progressive (NYSE: PGR - Get Free Report) are both large-cap finance companies, but which is the better investment? We will compare the two businesses based on the strength of their profitability, earnings, institutional ownership, dividends, analyst recommendations, valuation and risk. Earnings and Valuation This table compares AON and Progressive"s

Defense World·4d ago
Nykredit A S Acquires Shares of 174,560 The Progressive Corporation $PGR

Nykredit A S acquired a new stake in shares of The Progressive Corporation (NYSE: PGR) in the undefined quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The fund acquired 174,560 shares of the insurance provider's stock, valued at approximately $38,133,000. A number of other hedge funds

Fool - Investing News·5d ago
What History Says About Insurance Stocks When Bond Yields Rise

Rising bond yields can both help and hurt insurance stocks, so the latest Fed rate hike is an important development.

Filtered for The Progressive CorporationMore Headlines
04

Compare before deciding

Benchmark PGR against direct peers instead of judging its metrics in isolation.

Peers Comparison

Key metrics vs top competitors for The Progressive Corporation (PGR)

Full Screener →
CompanyPriceMarket CapP/E RatioRev Growth (1Y)Net MarginROEDiv Yield
PGR logoPGRThe Progressive CorporationCurrent
$203.13$119.22B10.5616.32%12.9%40.45%2.4%
ALL logoALLThe Allstate Corporation
$225.66$58.09B5.914.64%19.24%43.16%—
TRV logoTRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc.
$360.39$75.17B13.145.17%16.95%25.62%—
HIG logoHIGThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.
$126.59$34.7B9.507.1%15.03%22.99%—
ERIE logoERIEErie Indemnity Company
$225.77$10.43B21.267.17%14%24.52%—
KMPR logoKMPRKemper Corporation
$25.85$1.52B11.293.62%-10.83%-19.42%—

Compare PGR vs Peers

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) vs competitors — business, growth, and fundamentals comparison against the closest industry rivals.

Closest Rival

vs ALL

Most directly comparable listed peer for PGR.

Scale Benchmark

vs GOOG

Larger-name benchmark to compare PGR against a more recognizable public peer.

Peer Set

Compare Top 5

vs ALL, TRV, HIG, ERIE

05

Keep researching

Verify the primary filings, follow material updates, and answer the remaining questions.

PGR SEC Filings & Documents

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) SEC filings — annual & quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q)

8-K Announcements

6
Material company update

Jul 15, 2026·SEC

Material company update

Jun 17, 2026·SEC

Material company update

May 20, 2026·SEC

10-K Annual Reports

1
FY 2026

Mar 2, 2026·SEC

10-Q Quarterly Reports

4
FY 2026

May 4, 2026·SEC

FY 2025

Nov 3, 2025·SEC

FY 2025

Aug 4, 2025·SEC

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PGR Frequently Asked Questions

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) stock FAQ — growth, dividends, profitability & financials explained

Growth & Financials
How fast is The Progressive Corporation growing?

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) grew revenue by 16.3% over the past year. This is strong growth.

Is PGR profitable?

Yes, The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is profitable, generating $11.56B in net income for fiscal year 2025 (12.9% net margin).

Dividend & Returns
Does PGR pay dividends?

Yes, The Progressive Corporation (PGR) pays a dividend with a yield of 2.40%. This makes it attractive for income-focused investors.

What is PGR's return on equity?

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) has a return on equity (ROE) of 40.4%. This is excellent, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.

Industry Metrics
What is The Progressive Corporation's combined ratio?

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) has a combined ratio of 83.8%. A ratio below 100% indicates underwriting profitability.

What if you invested $1,000 in PGR back in 1996?

Total return calculator · dividends reinvested · 30+ years of data

See returns →