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Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$149.04
→
Intrinsic$300.30
+101%
$199.40$300.30$491.72
Market implies 8% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests TOL could have 101% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $149, the market prices in 8% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (25%).
Range: Bear $199 → Bull $492. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $373 | $404 | $438 | $473 |
| 10% | $256 | $278 | $300 | $324 |
| 12% | $192 | $207 | $224 | $242 |
| 14% | $151 | $163 | $176 | $190 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($492) offers 230% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (8%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($199) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.17B
Year 2$1.46B
Year 3$1.83B
Year 4$2.29B
Year 5$2.86B
Terminal$42.05B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$936.52MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.