Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)
Valuation Overview•Is Union Pacific Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
Moderate quality score of 64/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though solvency presents a headwind.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven by a balanced mix of reliable dividends and share buybacks.
UNP exhibits elite business quality, driven by exceptional capital efficiency and highly lucrative margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-0.5% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 40.3% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.2M | +1.1% | -0.5% | +4.6% | +1.2% | |
| EBITDA | $2.5M | — | +0.3% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $1.7M | +5.8% | +0.7% | — | +4.1% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.87 | +7.9% | +2.2% | +8.7% | +8.1% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.4M | -6.7% | -1.4% | -0.4% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 45.8% | 49.5% | 48.4% | 45.9% |
| Operating Margin | 40.3% | 39.3% | 40.1% | 39.2% |
| Net Margin | 29.8% | 27.8% | 28.3% | 29.4% |
| FCF Margin | 22.7% | 22.2% | 23.5% | 23.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $2.86 | $2.93 | +2.4% | ||
| Q1'26 | $2.86 | $2.86 | +0.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $2.99 | $3.08 | +3.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $2.91 | $3.03 | +4.1% | ||
| Q2'25 | $2.74 | $2.70 | -1.5% | ||
| Q1'25 | $2.76 | $2.91 | +5.4% | ||
| Q4'24 | $2.78 | $2.75 | -1.1% | ||
| Q3'24 | $2.71 | $2.74 | +1.1% |
Total return is +18.2% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -6.8%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +12.0% | +2.7% | — |
| 1Y | +18.2% | -6.8% | +2.5% |
| 3YCAGR | +10.7% | -8.7% | +8.0% |
| 5YCAGR | +5.7% | -7.1% | +12.1% |
| 10YCAGR | +13.0% | -0.5% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) valuation, health, and returns.
Union Pacific Corporation is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Slightly cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +23.2% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $316.57)
Union Pacific Corporation has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $316.57 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $286.59 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $293.30 (implying +14.2% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Union Pacific Corporation displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 64/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 3.1 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 15.2%.
Union Pacific Corporation pays a 2.1% dividend yield, covered by a 45% payout ratio with 19 years of growth, supplemented by a 1.8% buyback yield.
Union Pacific Corporation's current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +1.1% 1Y revenue growth and +7.9% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -0.5%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 47 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 67% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +14.2% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Union Pacific Corporation include: -12.3% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.38x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.