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VICI Properties Inc. (VICI) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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VICI Properties Inc. (VICI)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$28.42
→
Intrinsic$74.15
+161%
$45.27$74.15$128.95
Market implies 7% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests VICI could have 161% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $28, the market prices in only 7% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $45 → Bull $129. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$95$104$114$124
10%$62$68$74$81
12%$43$48$52$58
14%$31$35$39$43

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($129) offers 354% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (7%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($45) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year FFO Projection

Year 1$3.35B
Year 2$4.19B
Year 3$5.24B
Year 4$6.55B
Year 5$8.19B
Terminal$120.48B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$2.68BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is VICI stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

VICI trades at $28.42 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $58.62, implying +110% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 25.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of VICI's future cash flows. The bear case ($32.83) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is VICI's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $2.68B, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $17.13B net debt and dividing by 1.05B shares: Bear $32.83 | Base $58.62 | Bull $96.61. Current price $28.42 implies +110% to base case.

How is VICI's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($78.54B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.