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Viking Holdings Ltd (VIK) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Viking Holdings Ltd (VIK)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$70.20
→
Intrinsic$87.87
+25%
$57.44$87.87$145.61
Market implies 20% growth for 5 years
VIK shows 25% potential upside using 25% growth — reasonable if fundamentals hold.
At $70, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (20%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $57 → Bull $146. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$110$119$129$140
10%$75$81$88$95
12%$55$60$65$70
14%$43$47$50$55

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($146) offers 107% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
  • 20% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
  • Market-implied growth (20%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($57) implies 18% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$1.46B
Year 2$1.82B
Year 3$2.27B
Year 4$2.84B
Year 5$3.55B
Terminal$52.30B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.16BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is VIK stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟡 FAIRLY VALUED

VIK trades at $70.20, within 10% of our $71.51 intrinsic value estimate. At 10.0% WACC and 25.0% FCF growth, the market is pricing in assumptions roughly aligned with the 5-year historical CAGR. The valuation range spans $44.33 (bear) to $111.53 (bull).

What is VIK's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $1.16B, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $3.23B net debt and dividing by 0.43B shares: Bear $44.33 | Base $71.51 | Bull $111.53. Current price $70.20 implies -3% to base case.

How is VIK's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($34.09B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.