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Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$167.63
→
Intrinsic$59.42
-65%
$30.41$59.42$114.55
Market implies 31% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 11% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $168, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (31%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $30 → Bull $115. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 7% | 9% | 11% | 13% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $77 | $87 | $97 | $109 |
| 10% | $45 | $52 | $59 | $67 |
| 12% | $28 | $33 | $38 | $44 |
| 14% | $17 | $21 | $25 | $30 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($115) with 13% growth, 9% discount rate
- Conservative 11% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($30) implies 82% downside at 8% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 31% growth expectations vs 11% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 65% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.30B
Year 2$1.43B
Year 3$1.59B
Year 4$1.76B
Year 5$1.94B
Terminal$28.57B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate10.6%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.17BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.