Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN)
Valuation Overview•Is Waste Connections, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a premium valuation multiple over its peers, likely pricing in superior execution.
Moderate quality score of 54/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
WCN demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (9.6% 3Y CAGR) paired with robust earnings compounding (8.9% EPS 3Y CAGR). The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 17.6% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.4B | +6.5% | +9.6% | +11.8% | +16.2% | |
| EBITDA | $451.3M | — | +11.0% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $219.3M | +75.0% | +8.9% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.86 | +74.9% | +8.9% | +39.9% | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $545.6M | +5.8% | +3.8% | +10.8% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 39.1% | 40.5% | 40.4% | 40.8% |
| Operating Margin | 17.6% | 15.2% | 15.9% | 14.7% |
| Net Margin | 11.0% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 9.5% |
| FCF Margin | 23.1% | 13.7% | 14.4% | 14.8% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $1.19 | $1.23 | +3.4% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.28 | $1.29 | +0.8% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.38 | $1.44 | +4.3% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.25 | $1.29 | +3.2% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.07 | $1.13 | +5.6% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.20 | $1.16 | -3.3% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.29 | $1.35 | +4.7% | ||
| Q3'24 | $1.17 | $1.24 | +6.0% |
Total return is -17.0% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -42.0%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -11.2% | -20.5% | — |
| 1Y | -17.0% | -42.0% | +0.7% |
| 3YCAGR | +4.9% | -14.4% | +2.7% |
| 5YCAGR | +6.2% | -6.5% | +4.7% |
| 10YCAGR | +13.1% | -0.4% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) valuation, health, and returns.
Waste Connections, Inc. is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Slightly expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $147.88)
Waste Connections, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $147.88 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $141.79 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $205.58 (implying +33.5% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Waste Connections, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 54/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.2 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 7.7%.
Waste Connections, Inc. pays a 0.9% dividend yield, covered by a 31% payout ratio with 15 years of growth, supplemented by a 1.3% buyback yield.
Waste Connections, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +6.5% 1Y revenue growth and +74.9% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +9.6%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 33 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 92% of recent quarters with a 5-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +33.5% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Waste Connections, Inc. include: -22.3% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of -0.02x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.