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Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. (ZGN)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$11.02
→
Intrinsic$18.14
+65%
$11.33$18.14$31.07
Market implies 14% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests ZGN could have 65% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $11, the market prices in 14% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (25%).
Range: Bear $11 → Bull $31. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $23 | $25 | $27 | $30 |
| 10% | $15 | $17 | $18 | $20 |
| 12% | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| 14% | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($31) offers 182% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (14%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($11) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$192.00M
Year 2$240.00M
Year 3$300.00M
Year 4$375.00M
Year 5$468.75M
Terminal$6.90B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$153.60MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.