Comprehensive Stock Comparison
Compare The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 (CGABL) vs Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Stock
Analyze side-by-side fundamentals, valuation, growth, and profitability to decide which stock is the better buy.
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Quick Verdict
| Category | Winner | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | CGABL | 83.1% revenue growth vs UPST's 54.2% |
| Value | CGABL | Lower P/E (6.4x vs 12.8x) |
| Quality / Margins | CGABL | 18.8% net margin vs UPST's 5.1% |
| Stability / Safety | CGABL | Beta 0.20 vs UPST's 2.55 |
| Dividends | CGABL | 7.8% yield; UPST pays no meaningful dividend |
| Momentum (1Y) | CGABL | +4.0% vs UPST's -59.2% |
| Efficiency (ROA) | CGABL | 2.9% ROA vs UPST's 1.1%, ROIC 15.3% vs 2.2% |
Who Each Stock Is For
Income & stability
Growth exposure
Long-term compounding (10Y)
Sleep-well-at-night portfolio
Defensive / Recession hedge
Business Model
What each company does and how it makes money
The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 is a financing subsidiary that issues long-term debt securities to raise capital for The Carlyle Group's investment activities. It generates revenue through interest payments on these notes — which are subordinated to other debt — providing investors with fixed income while funding Carlyle's private equity, real estate, and credit investments. Its key advantage lies in being backed by The Carlyle Group's established global investment platform and creditworthiness, though the notes themselves represent a specific debt obligation rather than equity in the parent company.
Upstart operates an AI-powered lending platform that connects borrowers with bank partners using machine learning to assess credit risk. It generates revenue primarily from referral fees paid by banks for approved loans — roughly 80% of revenue — and smaller amounts from servicing fees and interest income. Its key advantage is its proprietary AI underwriting model, which analyzes thousands of data points beyond traditional credit scores to identify creditworthy borrowers that conventional models might miss.
Revenue Breakdown by Segment
How each company's revenue is distributed across its business units
Financial Metrics Comparison
Side-by-side fundamentals across 2 stocks. BestLagging
Financial Scorecard
CGABL leads in 5 of 6 categories — strongest in Financial Metrics and Valuation Metrics.
Financial Metrics (TTM)
CGABL is the larger business by revenue, generating $5.4B annually — 5.2x UPST's $1.0B. CGABL is the more profitable business, keeping 18.8% of every revenue dollar as net income compared to UPST's 5.1%.
| Metric | CGABLThe Carlyle Group… | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… |
|---|---|---|
| RevenueTrailing 12 months | $5.4B | $1.0B |
| EBITDAEarnings before interest/tax | $249M | $46M |
| Net IncomeAfter-tax profit | $773M | $32M |
| Free Cash FlowCash after capex | $1.1B | -$374M |
| Gross MarginGross profit ÷ Revenue | +50.1% | — |
| Operating MarginEBIT ÷ Revenue | +25.2% | +4.1% |
| Net MarginNet income ÷ Revenue | +18.8% | +5.1% |
| FCF MarginFCF ÷ Revenue | +18.6% | -14.2% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | — | — |
| EPS Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | -81.6% | +4.1% |
Valuation Metrics
At 6.4x trailing earnings, CGABL trades at a 90% valuation discount to UPST's 60.5x P/E. On an enterprise value basis, CGABL's 3.3x EV/EBITDA is more attractive than UPST's 47.3x.
| Metric | CGABLThe Carlyle Group… | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… |
|---|---|---|
| Market CapShares × price | $6.3B | $2.7B |
| Enterprise ValueMkt cap + debt − cash | $5.1B | $2.0B |
| Trailing P/EPrice ÷ TTM EPS | 6.35x | 60.51x |
| Forward P/EPrice ÷ next-FY EPS est. | — | 12.81x |
| PEG RatioP/E ÷ EPS growth rate | — | 4.21x |
| EV / EBITDAEnterprise value multiple | 3.26x | 47.31x |
| Price / SalesMarket cap ÷ Revenue | 1.17x | 2.56x |
| Price / BookPrice ÷ Book value/share | 0.91x | 3.66x |
| Price / FCFMarket cap ÷ FCF | 6.26x | — |
Profitability & Efficiency
CGABL delivers a 9.6% return on equity — every $100 of shareholder capital generates $10 in annual profit, vs $4 for UPST. On the Piotroski fundamental quality scale (0–9), CGABL scores 6/9 vs UPST's 3/9, reflecting solid financial health.
| Metric | CGABLThe Carlyle Group… | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… |
|---|---|---|
| ROE (TTM)Return on equity | +9.6% | +4.3% |
| ROA (TTM)Return on assets | +2.9% | +1.1% |
| ROICReturn on invested capital | +15.3% | +2.2% |
| ROCEReturn on capital employed | +6.2% | +1.6% |
| Piotroski ScoreFundamental quality 0–9 | 6 | 3 |
| Debt / EquityFinancial leverage | — | — |
| Net DebtTotal debt minus cash | -$1.3B | -$652M |
| Cash & Equiv.Liquid assets | $1.3B | $652M |
| Total DebtShort + long-term debt | $0 | $0 |
| Interest CoverageEBIT ÷ Interest expense | 2.60x | 0.85x |
Total Returns (with DRIP)
A $10,000 investment in CGABL five years ago would be worth $9,271 today (with dividends reinvested), compared to $4,086 for UPST. Over the past 12 months, CGABL leads with a +4.0% total return vs UPST's -59.2%. The 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) favors UPST at 13.7% vs CGABL's 4.6% — a key indicator of consistent wealth creation.
| Metric | CGABLThe Carlyle Group… | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… |
|---|---|---|
| YTD ReturnYear-to-date | +2.9% | -40.6% |
| 1-Year ReturnPast 12 months | +4.0% | -59.2% |
| 3-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +14.4% | +47.1% |
| 5-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -7.3% | -59.1% |
| 10-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -7.3% | -7.6% |
| CAGR (3Y)Annualised 3-year return | +4.6% | +13.7% |
Risk & Volatility
CGABL is the less volatile stock with a 0.20 beta — it tends to amplify market swings less than UPST's 2.55 beta. A beta below 1.0 means the stock typically moves less than the S&P 500. CGABL currently trades 93.6% from its 52-week high vs UPST's 31.2% drawdown — a narrower gap to the peak suggests stronger recent price momentum.
| Metric | CGABLThe Carlyle Group… | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… |
|---|---|---|
| Beta (5Y)Sensitivity to S&P 500 | 0.20x | 2.55x |
| 52-Week HighHighest price in past year | $18.80 | $87.30 |
| 52-Week LowLowest price in past year | $16.43 | $26.80 |
| % of 52W HighCurrent price vs 52-week peak | +93.6% | +31.2% |
| RSI (14)Momentum oscillator 0–100 | 49.8 | 33.9 |
| Avg Volume (50D)Average daily shares traded | 34K | 4.2M |
Analyst Outlook
CGABL is the only dividend payer here at 7.77% yield — a key consideration for income-focused portfolios.
| Metric | CGABLThe Carlyle Group… | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst RatingConsensus buy/hold/sell | — | Hold |
| Price TargetConsensus 12-month target | — | $45.17 |
| # AnalystsCovering analysts | — | 22 |
| Dividend YieldAnnual dividend ÷ price | +7.8% | — |
| Dividend StreakConsecutive years of raises | 0 | — |
| Dividend / ShareAnnual DPS | $1.37 | — |
| Buyback YieldShare repurchases ÷ mkt cap | +8.8% | 0.0% |
Historical Charts
Charts are rendered on first load. Hover for details.
Chart 1Total Return — 5 Years (Rebased to 100)
| Stock | May 21 | Feb 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Carlyle Group I… (CGABL) | 100 | 69.85 | -30.1% |
| Upstart Holdings, I… (UPST) | 100 | 27.47 | -72.5% |
The Carlyle Group I… (CGABL) returned -7% over 5 years vs Upstart Holdings, I… (UPST)'s -59%.
Chart 2Revenue Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Carlyle Group I… (CGABL) | $2.3B | $5.4B | +138.6% |
| Upstart Holdings, I… (UPST) | $96M | $1.0B | +992.1% |
Chart 3Net Margin Trend — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Carlyle Group I… (CGABL) | 0.7% | 18.8% | +2695.7% |
| Upstart Holdings, I… (UPST) | -12.9% | 5.1% | +139.8% |
Chart 4P/E Ratio History — 5 Years
| Stock | 2020 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Carlyle Group I… (CGABL) | 3 | 6.4 | +113.3% |
| Upstart Holdings, I… (UPST) | 177.2 | 97.2 | -45.1% |
The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 has traded in a 3x–6x P/E range over 3 years; current trailing P/E is ~6x. Upstart Holdings, Inc. has traded in a 97x–177x P/E range over 3 years; current trailing P/E is ~61x.
Chart 5EPS Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Carlyle Group I… (CGABL) | 0.05 | 2.77 | +5484.7% |
| Upstart Holdings, I… (UPST) | -0.87 | 0.45 | +151.7% |
Chart 6Free Cash Flow — 5 Years
The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 generated $1B FCF in 2024 (-42% vs 2021). Upstart Holdings, Inc. generated $-148M FCF in 2025 (-196% vs 2021).
CGABL vs UPST: Frequently Asked Questions
8 questions · data-driven answers · updated daily
01Is CGABL or UPST a better buy right now?
The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 (CGABL) offers the better valuation at 6.4x trailing P/E, making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) a "Hold" — based on 22 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.
02Which has the better valuation — CGABL or UPST?
On trailing P/E, The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 (CGABL) is the cheapest at 6.4x versus Upstart Holdings, Inc. at 60.5x.
03Which is the better long-term investment — CGABL or UPST?
Over the past 5 years, The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 (CGABL) delivered a total return of -7.3%, compared to -59.1% for Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST). A $10,000 investment in CGABL five years ago would be worth approximately $9K today (assuming dividends reinvested). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: CGABL returned -7.3% versus UPST's -7.6%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.
04Which is safer — CGABL or UPST?
By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 (CGABL) is the lower-risk stock at 0.20β versus Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s 2.55β — meaning UPST is approximately 1152% more volatile than CGABL relative to the S&P 500.
05Which has better profit margins — CGABL or UPST?
The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 (CGABL) is the more profitable company, earning 18.8% net margin versus 5.1% for Upstart Holdings, Inc. — meaning it keeps 18.8% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: CGABL leads at 25.2% versus 4.1% for UPST. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — CGABL leads at 50.1%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.
06Which pays a better dividend — CGABL or UPST?
In this comparison, CGABL (7.8% yield) pays a dividend. UPST does not pay a meaningful dividend and should not be held primarily for income.
07Is CGABL or UPST better for a retirement portfolio?
For long-horizon retirement investors, The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 (CGABL) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding (low volatility (β 0.20), 7.8% yield). Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) carries a higher beta of 2.55 — meaning larger drawdowns in market downturns, which matters significantly when you cannot wait years for a recovery. Both have compounded well over 10 years (CGABL: -7.3%, UPST: -7.6%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.
08What are the main differences between CGABL and UPST?
Both stocks operate in the Financial Services sector, making this a peer-level intra-sector comparison — the same macro tailwinds and headwinds will affect both. In terms of investment character: CGABL is a small-cap deep-value stock; UPST is a small-cap quality compounder stock. CGABL pays a dividend while UPST does not, making them suitable for different income and tax situations. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.
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