Intrinsic Value Overview
The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 (CGABL)
The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 (CGABL) intrinsic value summary: current price $17.59, fair value $27.03, +54% implied move via DCF and relative valuation.
Method Breakdown
Base blend: 60% DCF + 40% RelativeCompany Quality
Above average — solid fundamentals with minor weakness
Wall St Estimates
Shareholder Returns
Total Return vs S&P 500
Fundamental Analysis
Profitability & Financial HealthProfitability
Returns & MarginsSolvency
Financial HealthGrowth & Margins
Quarterly Trends · 5-Year Window · Hover for detailPiotroski F-Score
Fundamental QualityMonte Carlo Distribution & Risk
10,000 SimulationsModel Observation History
Quantitative Track RecordMonthly model snapshots showing quantitative assessments. High Conviction = model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Return columns show actual price changes following each observation date for reference purposes only.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 26Latest | Moderate | 0.67 | $17.59 | — | — |
| Feb 21, 26 | Moderate | 0.67 | $17.71 | — | — |
| Feb 14, 26 | Moderate | 0.67 | $17.74 | — | — |
| Feb 11, 26 | Moderate | 0.67 | $17.55 | — | — |
| Jan 11, 26 | Moderate | 0.68 | $17.44 | -0.1% | — |
Earnings Surprise History
Last 2 Quarters| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'23Latest | — | $0.22 | — | ||
| Q2'23 | — | $-0.27 | — |
Peer Valuation Comparison
Financial - Credit Services CohortAnnual Returns vs SPY
Total Return (Price + Dividends)| Year | Stock Return | SPY Return | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026YTD | +7.9% | +0.4% | +7.4% |
| 2025 | -0.1% | +16.6% | -16.8% |
| 2024 | -6.7% | +24.0% | -30.7% |
| 2023Best | +30.5% | +24.8% | +5.7% |
| 2022Worst | -31.0% | -19.9% | -11.1% |
| 2021 | +3.9% | +28.8% | -24.9% |
Frequently Asked Questions
ValuationIs CGABL a good stock to buy right now?
Based on our multi-model analysis of The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 (CGABL) at $17.59: Relative valuation verdict: Significantly Undervalued vs industry peers. Fundamental quality score: 68/100 (moderate). This is a quantitative summary combining DCF intrinsic value, peer-based relative valuation, quality scoring, and analyst consensus — not a buy/sell recommendation. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before investing.
ValuationWhat is The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061's fair value?
The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 has multiple fair value estimates from different frameworks: Relative fair value: $27.03 (Significantly Undervalued, +53.6% vs current price). We recommend comparing all three lenses — when DCF, relative, and analyst targets converge, the signal is stronger. When they diverge, investigate what assumptions differ.
QualityIs CGABL financially healthy?
The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061's financial health as measured by our composite scoring: Overall quality score: 68/100. Piotroski F-Score: 6/9 (moderate). Return on invested capital: 15.3%. Cash conversion (OCF/NI): 1.07x (earnings are cash-backed). The quality score blends profitability (ROIC, ROE, margins), solvency (leverage, coverage, Z-Score), and growth trajectory into a single 0–100 framework updated end-of-day.
PerformanceHow has CGABL performed compared to the S&P 500?
The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061's performance profile: 1-year total return: +4.0%. 1-year alpha vs S&P 500: -11.5% (underperforming the benchmark). 5-year CAGR: -1.5%. Maximum drawdown (1Y): -9.0%. Relative Strength rating: 47/99 (weak momentum). Beta: 0.20 (less volatile than the market). Total returns include reinvested dividends. Alpha is calculated against the S&P 500 Total Return Index over matching periods.
IncomeDoes CGABL pay dividends?
Current dividend yield: 7.8%. Annual dividend per share: $1.37. Payout ratio: 49% (well-covered). Buyback yield: 8.8% (hybrid return program). Total shareholder yield (dividends + buybacks): 16.5%.
EstimatesWhat do Wall Street analysts say about CGABL?
No analyst coverage data available for CGABL.
RiskWhat are the key risks of investing in CGABL?
Key risks identified for The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061: No significant risk flags detected in the current quantitative assessment. Note: This model does not capture regulatory changes, management decisions, competitive disruption, or geopolitical events. Macro and qualitative risks remain material and should be assessed independently.
LegalDoes this dashboard provide investment advice?
No. This overview dashboard aggregates data from our DCF intrinsic value model, relative peer multiples model, proprietary estimates engine, and third-party analyst consensus feeds. It is strictly for educational and informational purposes. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, quality scores, and signals are automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as investment recommendations. Consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.