Comprehensive Stock Comparison
Compare Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) vs Forge Global Holdings, Inc. (FRGE) Stock
Analyze side-by-side fundamentals, valuation, growth, and profitability to decide which stock is the better buy.
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Quick Verdict
| Category | Winner | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | FICO | 15.9% revenue growth vs FRGE's 13.6% |
| Quality / Margins | FICO | 31.9% net margin vs FRGE's -67.4% |
| Stability / Safety | FRGE | Beta 0.56 vs FICO's 1.00 |
| Dividends | Tie | Neither pays a meaningful dividend |
| Momentum (1Y) | FRGE | +200.0% vs FICO's -25.3% |
| Efficiency (ROA) | FICO | 35.5% ROA vs FRGE's -24.8%, ROIC 59.7% vs -45.6% |
Who Each Stock Is For
Income & stability
Growth exposure
Long-term compounding (10Y)
Sleep-well-at-night portfolio
Defensive / Recession hedge
Business Model
What each company does and how it makes money
Fair Isaac Corporation is a data analytics and decision management software company that helps businesses make better credit, fraud, and risk decisions. It generates revenue primarily through its FICO Scores business—which provides credit scoring data and analytics—and its Software segment that sells decision management platforms and professional services. The company's main competitive advantage is its FICO credit scoring system, which has become the industry standard used by over 90% of top U.S. lenders.
Forge Global operates a marketplace and technology platform for trading private company shares. It generates revenue primarily through transaction fees from secondary market trades in private securities — supplemented by data subscriptions and technology services for market participants. The company's key advantage is its established network effect and proprietary technology infrastructure that connects private companies, shareholders, and accredited investors in a traditionally illiquid market.
Revenue Breakdown by Segment
How each company's revenue is distributed across its business units
Financial Metrics Comparison
Side-by-side fundamentals across 2 stocks. BestLagging
Financial Scorecard
FICO leads in 3 of 6 categories (Financial Metrics, Profitability & Efficiency). FRGE leads in 1 (Risk & Volatility). 1 tied.
Financial Metrics (TTM)
FICO is the larger business by revenue, generating $2.1B annually — 22.2x FRGE's $93M. FICO is the more profitable business, keeping 31.9% of every revenue dollar as net income compared to FRGE's -67.4%. On growth, FICO holds the edge at +16.4% YoY revenue growth, suggesting stronger near-term business momentum.
| Metric | FICOFair Isaac Corpor… | FRGEForge Global Hold… |
|---|---|---|
| RevenueTrailing 12 months | $2.1B | $93M |
| EBITDAEarnings before interest/tax | $995M | -$64M |
| Net IncomeAfter-tax profit | $658M | -$63M |
| Free Cash FlowCash after capex | $735M | -$40M |
| Gross MarginGross profit ÷ Revenue | +82.9% | +11.9% |
| Operating MarginEBIT ÷ Revenue | +47.5% | -73.5% |
| Net MarginNet income ÷ Revenue | +31.9% | -67.4% |
| FCF MarginFCF ÷ Revenue | +35.6% | -43.4% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | +16.4% | +10.6% |
| EPS Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | +7.7% | +8.1% |
Valuation Metrics
| Metric | FICOFair Isaac Corpor… | FRGEForge Global Hold… |
|---|---|---|
| Market CapShares × price | $33.5B | $8.4B |
| Enterprise ValueMkt cap + debt − cash | $36.4B | $8.3B |
| Trailing P/EPrice ÷ TTM EPS | 53.10x | -8.29x |
| Forward P/EPrice ÷ next-FY EPS est. | 33.93x | — |
| PEG RatioP/E ÷ EPS growth rate | 1.94x | — |
| EV / EBITDAEnterprise value multiple | 38.76x | — |
| Price / SalesMarket cap ÷ Revenue | 16.82x | 105.74x |
| Price / BookPrice ÷ Book value/share | — | 2.42x |
| Price / FCFMarket cap ÷ FCF | 43.50x | — |
Profitability & Efficiency
On the Piotroski fundamental quality scale (0–9), FICO scores 7/9 vs FRGE's 3/9, reflecting strong financial health.
| Metric | FICOFair Isaac Corpor… | FRGEForge Global Hold… |
|---|---|---|
| ROE (TTM)Return on equity | — | -30.3% |
| ROA (TTM)Return on assets | +35.5% | -24.8% |
| ROICReturn on invested capital | +59.7% | -45.6% |
| ROCEReturn on capital employed | +78.5% | -31.3% |
| Piotroski ScoreFundamental quality 0–9 | 7 | 3 |
| Debt / EquityFinancial leverage | — | 0.06x |
| Net DebtTotal debt minus cash | $2.9B | -$91M |
| Cash & Equiv.Liquid assets | $134M | $105M |
| Total DebtShort + long-term debt | $3.1B | $15M |
| Interest CoverageEBIT ÷ Interest expense | 6.78x | — |
Total Returns (with DRIP)
A $10,000 investment in FICO five years ago would be worth $29,863 today (with dividends reinvested), compared to $2,927 for FRGE. Over the past 12 months, FRGE leads with a +200.0% total return vs FICO's -25.3%. The 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) favors FICO at 27.7% vs FRGE's 18.6% — a key indicator of consistent wealth creation.
| Metric | FICOFair Isaac Corpor… | FRGEForge Global Hold… |
|---|---|---|
| YTD ReturnYear-to-date | -14.2% | +1.2% |
| 1-Year ReturnPast 12 months | -25.3% | +200.0% |
| 3-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +108.1% | +66.7% |
| 5-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +198.6% | -70.7% |
| 10-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +1316.3% | -70.9% |
| CAGR (3Y)Annualised 3-year return | +27.7% | +18.6% |
Risk & Volatility
FRGE is the less volatile stock with a 0.56 beta — it tends to amplify market swings less than FICO's 1.00 beta. A beta below 1.0 means the stock typically moves less than the S&P 500. FRGE currently trades 99.9% from its 52-week high vs FICO's 63.6% drawdown — a narrower gap to the peak suggests stronger recent price momentum.
| Metric | FICOFair Isaac Corpor… | FRGEForge Global Hold… |
|---|---|---|
| Beta (5Y)Sensitivity to S&P 500 | 1.00x | 0.56x |
| 52-Week HighHighest price in past year | $2217.60 | $45.03 |
| 52-Week LowLowest price in past year | $1193.10 | $6.60 |
| % of 52W HighCurrent price vs 52-week peak | +63.6% | +99.9% |
| RSI (14)Momentum oscillator 0–100 | 47.7 | 64.7 |
| Avg Volume (50D)Average daily shares traded | 244K | 146K |
Analyst Outlook
Wall Street rates FICO as "Buy" and FRGE as "Hold". Consensus price targets imply 49.8% upside for FICO (target: $2111) vs 0.0% for FRGE (target: $45).
| Metric | FICOFair Isaac Corpor… | FRGEForge Global Hold… |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst RatingConsensus buy/hold/sell | Buy | Hold |
| Price TargetConsensus 12-month target | $2111.17 | $45.00 |
| # AnalystsCovering analysts | 18 | 5 |
| Dividend YieldAnnual dividend ÷ price | — | — |
| Dividend StreakConsecutive years of raises | 0 | — |
| Dividend / ShareAnnual DPS | — | — |
| Buyback YieldShare repurchases ÷ mkt cap | +4.2% | 0.0% |
Historical Charts
Charts are rendered on first load. Hover for details.
Chart 1Total Return — 5 Years (Rebased to 100)
| Stock | Feb 21 | Feb 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair Isaac Corporat… (FICO) | 100 | 321.01 | +221.0% |
| Forge Global Holdin… (FRGE) | 100 | 28.88 | -71.1% |
Fair Isaac Corporat… (FICO) returned +199% over 5 years vs Forge Global Holdin… (FRGE)'s -71%. A $10,000 investment in FICO 5 years ago would be worth $29,863 today (including dividends reinvested).
Chart 2Revenue Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair Isaac Corporat… (FICO) | $881M | $2.0B | +125.9% |
| Forge Global Holdin… (FRGE) | $24M | $79M | +229.9% |
Fair Isaac Corporation's revenue grew from $881M (2016) to $2.0B (2025) — a 9.5% CAGR.
Chart 3Net Margin Trend — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair Isaac Corporat… (FICO) | 12.4% | 32.7% | +163.7% |
| Forge Global Holdin… (FRGE) | -63.4% | -83.6% | -32.0% |
Fair Isaac Corporation's net margin went from 12% (2016) to 33% (2025).
Chart 4P/E Ratio History — 9 Years
| Stock | 2017 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair Isaac Corporat… (FICO) | 38.5 | 63.7 | +65.5% |
Fair Isaac Corporation has traded in a 32x–97x P/E range over 9 years; current trailing P/E is ~53x.
Chart 5EPS Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair Isaac Corporat… (FICO) | 3.39 | 26.54 | +682.9% |
| Forge Global Holdin… (FRGE) | -4.42 | -5.43 | -22.9% |
Fair Isaac Corporation's EPS grew from $3.39 (2016) to $26.54 (2025) — a 26% CAGR.
Chart 6Free Cash Flow — 5 Years
Fair Isaac Corporation generated $770M FCF in 2025 (+85% vs 2021). Forge Global Holdings, Inc. generated $-41M FCF in 2024 (-641% vs 2021).
FICO vs FRGE: Frequently Asked Questions
8 questions · data-driven answers · updated daily
01Is FICO or FRGE a better buy right now?
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) offers the better valuation at 53.1x trailing P/E (33.9x forward), making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) a "Buy" — based on 18 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.
02Which is the better long-term investment — FICO or FRGE?
Over the past 5 years, Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) delivered a total return of +198.6%, compared to -70.7% for Forge Global Holdings, Inc. (FRGE). A $10,000 investment in FICO five years ago would be worth approximately $30K today (assuming dividends reinvested). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: FICO returned +1316% versus FRGE's -70.9%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.
03Which is safer — FICO or FRGE?
By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), Forge Global Holdings, Inc. (FRGE) is the lower-risk stock at 0.56β versus Fair Isaac Corporation's 1.00β — meaning FICO is approximately 80% more volatile than FRGE relative to the S&P 500.
04Which has better profit margins — FICO or FRGE?
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) is the more profitable company, earning 32.7% net margin versus -83.6% for Forge Global Holdings, Inc. — meaning it keeps 32.7% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: FICO leads at 46.5% versus -103.7% for FRGE. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — FICO leads at 82.2%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.
05Is FICO or FRGE more undervalued right now?
Analyst consensus price targets imply the most upside for FICO: 49.8% to $2111.17.
06Which pays a better dividend — FICO or FRGE?
None of the stocks in this comparison currently pay a material dividend. All are effectively zero-yield and should be held for capital appreciation rather than income.
07Is FICO or FRGE better for a retirement portfolio?
For long-horizon retirement investors, Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding (low volatility (β 1.00), +1316% 10Y return). Both have compounded well over 10 years (FICO: +1316%, FRGE: -70.9%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.
08What are the main differences between FICO and FRGE?
Both stocks operate in the Technology sector, making this a peer-level intra-sector comparison — the same macro tailwinds and headwinds will affect both. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.
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