Comprehensive Stock Comparison
Compare Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) vs Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) Stock
Analyze side-by-side fundamentals, valuation, growth, and profitability to decide which stock is the better buy.
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Quick Verdict
| Category | Winner | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | OBE | 28.2% revenue growth vs GFR's 17.0% |
| Value | OBE | Lower P/E (35.0x vs 433.6x) |
| Quality / Margins | GFR | 27.7% net margin vs OBE's -33.7% |
| Stability / Safety | GFR | Beta 0.94 vs OBE's 1.39 |
| Dividends | Tie | Neither pays a meaningful dividend |
| Momentum (1Y) | OBE | +43.5% vs GFR's -0.2% |
| Efficiency (ROA) | GFR | 15.7% ROA vs OBE's -13.2%, ROIC 16.5% vs -10.3% |
Who Each Stock Is For
Income & stability
Growth exposure
Long-term compounding (10Y)
Sleep-well-at-night portfolio
Defensive / Recession hedge
Business Model
What each company does and how it makes money
Greenfire Resources is an oil sands producer that develops and operates thermal oil recovery projects in Alberta's Athabasca region using steam-assisted gravity drainage technology. It generates revenue primarily from bitumen sales — the heavy crude oil extracted from its SAGD operations — with production volumes directly tied to oil prices. The company's competitive advantage lies in its ownership of Tier-1 oil sands assets with established infrastructure and its expertise in efficient SAGD extraction methods.
Obsidian Energy is an oil and natural gas exploration and production company operating primarily in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin. It generates revenue through the sale of crude oil (roughly 70% of production) and natural gas liquids, with natural gas making up the remainder. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive, low-decline asset base in established Canadian basins — which provides operational efficiency and predictable production.
Revenue Breakdown by Segment
How each company's revenue is distributed across its business units
Segment breakdown not available.
Financial Metrics Comparison
Side-by-side fundamentals across 2 stocks. BestLagging
Financial Scorecard
GFR leads in 3 of 6 categories (Financial Metrics, Profitability & Efficiency). OBE leads in 2 (Valuation Metrics, Total Returns). 1 tied.
Financial Metrics (TTM)
GFR and OBE operate at a comparable scale, with $731M and $705M in trailing revenue. GFR is the more profitable business, keeping 27.7% of every revenue dollar as net income compared to OBE's -33.7%.
| Metric | GFRGreenfire Resourc… | OBEObsidian Energy L… |
|---|---|---|
| RevenueTrailing 12 months | $731M | $705M |
| EBITDAEarnings before interest/tax | $181M | $311M |
| Net IncomeAfter-tax profit | $202M | -$237M |
| Free Cash FlowCash after capex | $22M | -$5M |
| Gross MarginGross profit ÷ Revenue | +45.9% | -1.8% |
| Operating MarginEBIT ÷ Revenue | +12.7% | -44.3% |
| Net MarginNet income ÷ Revenue | +27.7% | -33.7% |
| FCF MarginFCF ÷ Revenue | +3.1% | -0.6% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | -34.1% | -32.4% |
| EPS Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | +60.5% | -42.9% |
Valuation Metrics
On an enterprise value basis, OBE's 2.6x EV/EBITDA is more attractive than GFR's 4.0x.
| Metric | GFRGreenfire Resourc… | OBEObsidian Energy L… |
|---|---|---|
| Market CapShares × price | $745M | $527M |
| Enterprise ValueMkt cap + debt − cash | $943M | $777M |
| Trailing P/EPrice ÷ TTM EPS | 4.78x | -4.02x |
| Forward P/EPrice ÷ next-FY EPS est. | 433.58x | 35.04x |
| PEG RatioP/E ÷ EPS growth rate | — | — |
| EV / EBITDAEnterprise value multiple | 4.00x | 2.58x |
| Price / SalesMarket cap ÷ Revenue | 1.29x | 0.86x |
| Price / BookPrice ÷ Book value/share | 0.71x | 0.58x |
| Price / FCFMarket cap ÷ FCF | 17.84x | — |
Profitability & Efficiency
GFR delivers a 22.8% return on equity — every $100 of shareholder capital generates $23 in annual profit, vs $-17 for OBE. OBE carries lower financial leverage with a 0.24x debt-to-equity ratio, signaling a more conservative balance sheet compared to GFR's 0.41x. On the Piotroski fundamental quality scale (0–9), GFR scores 6/9 vs OBE's 5/9, reflecting solid financial health.
| Metric | GFRGreenfire Resourc… | OBEObsidian Energy L… |
|---|---|---|
| ROE (TTM)Return on equity | +22.8% | -16.9% |
| ROA (TTM)Return on assets | +15.7% | -13.2% |
| ROICReturn on invested capital | +16.5% | -10.3% |
| ROCEReturn on capital employed | +23.1% | -12.9% |
| Piotroski ScoreFundamental quality 0–9 | 6 | 5 |
| Debt / EquityFinancial leverage | 0.41x | 0.24x |
| Net DebtTotal debt minus cash | $271M | $343M |
| Cash & Equiv.Liquid assets | $67M | — |
| Total DebtShort + long-term debt | $338M | $343M |
| Interest CoverageEBIT ÷ Interest expense | 4.50x | -13.27x |
Total Returns (with DRIP)
A $10,000 investment in OBE five years ago would be worth $57,721 today (with dividends reinvested), compared to $5,505 for GFR. Over the past 12 months, OBE leads with a +43.5% total return vs GFR's -0.2%. The 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) favors OBE at 3.5% vs GFR's -18.0% — a key indicator of consistent wealth creation.
| Metric | GFRGreenfire Resourc… | OBEObsidian Energy L… |
|---|---|---|
| YTD ReturnYear-to-date | +23.5% | +24.8% |
| 1-Year ReturnPast 12 months | -0.2% | +43.5% |
| 3-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -44.9% | +10.9% |
| 5-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -44.9% | +477.2% |
| 10-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -44.9% | +20.4% |
| CAGR (3Y)Annualised 3-year return | -18.0% | +3.5% |
Risk & Volatility
GFR is the less volatile stock with a 0.94 beta — it tends to amplify market swings less than OBE's 1.39 beta. A beta below 1.0 means the stock typically moves less than the S&P 500.
| Metric | GFRGreenfire Resourc… | OBEObsidian Energy L… |
|---|---|---|
| Beta (5Y)Sensitivity to S&P 500 | 0.94x | 1.39x |
| 52-Week HighHighest price in past year | $6.18 | $8.10 |
| 52-Week LowLowest price in past year | $3.81 | $3.88 |
| % of 52W HighCurrent price vs 52-week peak | +96.1% | +96.9% |
| RSI (14)Momentum oscillator 0–100 | 54.5 | 55.9 |
| Avg Volume (50D)Average daily shares traded | 99K | 436K |
Analyst Outlook
Wall Street rates GFR as "Buy" and OBE as "Hold".
| Metric | GFRGreenfire Resourc… | OBEObsidian Energy L… |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst RatingConsensus buy/hold/sell | Buy | Hold |
| Price TargetConsensus 12-month target | — | — |
| # AnalystsCovering analysts | 1 | 1 |
| Dividend YieldAnnual dividend ÷ price | — | — |
| Dividend StreakConsecutive years of raises | 1 | 0 |
| Dividend / ShareAnnual DPS | — | — |
| Buyback YieldShare repurchases ÷ mkt cap | 0.0% | +5.8% |
Historical Charts
Charts are rendered on first load. Hover for details.
Chart 1Total Return — 5 Years (Rebased to 100)
| Stock | Sep 23 | Feb 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greenfire Resources… (GFR) | 100 | 49.49 | -50.5% |
| Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) | 100 | 87.1 | -12.9% |
Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) returned +477% over 5 years vs Greenfire Resources… (GFR)'s -45%. A $10,000 investment in OBE 5 years ago would be worth $57,721 today (including dividends reinvested).
Chart 2Revenue Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2015 | 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greenfire Resources… (GFR) | $0.00 | $791M | — |
| Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) | $1.2B | $838M | -29.4% |
Obsidian Energy Ltd.'s revenue grew from $1.2B (2015) to $838M (2024) — a -3.8% CAGR.
Chart 3Net Margin Trend — 10 Years
| Stock | 2015 | 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greenfire Resources… (GFR) | 13.2% | 15.3% | +16.4% |
| Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) | -2.2% | -24.2% | -985.0% |
Obsidian Energy Ltd.'s net margin went from -2% (2015) to -24% (2024).
Chart 4P/E Ratio History — 3 Years
| Stock | 2021 | 2023 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) | 0.8 | 5.3 | +562.5% |
Obsidian Energy Ltd. has traded in a 1x–5x P/E range over 3 years; current trailing P/E is ~-4x.
Chart 5EPS Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2015 | 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greenfire Resources… (GFR) | -0.01 | 1.7 | +17808.3% |
| Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) | -36.9 | -2.67 | +92.8% |
Obsidian Energy Ltd.'s EPS grew from $-36.90 (2015) to $-2.67 (2024).
Chart 6Free Cash Flow — 5 Years
Greenfire Resources Ltd. generated $57M FCF in 2024 (+109% vs 2021). Obsidian Energy Ltd. generated $-65M FCF in 2024 (-212% vs 2021).
GFR vs OBE: Frequently Asked Questions
9 questions · data-driven answers · updated daily
01Is GFR or OBE a better buy right now?
Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) offers the better valuation at 4.8x trailing P/E (433.6x forward), making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) a "Buy" — based on 1 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.
02Which has the better valuation — GFR or OBE?
On forward P/E, Obsidian Energy Ltd. is actually cheaper at 35.0x — notably different from the trailing picture, reflecting expected earnings growth.
03Which is the better long-term investment — GFR or OBE?
Over the past 5 years, Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) delivered a total return of +477.2%, compared to -44.9% for Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR). A $10,000 investment in OBE five years ago would be worth approximately $58K today (assuming dividends reinvested). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: OBE returned +20.4% versus GFR's -44.9%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.
04Which is safer — GFR or OBE?
By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) is the lower-risk stock at 0.94β versus Obsidian Energy Ltd.'s 1.39β — meaning OBE is approximately 47% more volatile than GFR relative to the S&P 500. On balance sheet safety, Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) carries a lower debt/equity ratio of 24% versus 41% for Greenfire Resources Ltd. — giving it more financial flexibility in a downturn.
05Which has better profit margins — GFR or OBE?
Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) is the more profitable company, earning 15.3% net margin versus -24.2% for Obsidian Energy Ltd. — meaning it keeps 15.3% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: GFR leads at 28.7% versus -29.8% for OBE. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — GFR leads at 32.6%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.
06Is GFR or OBE more undervalued right now?
On forward earnings alone, Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) trades at 35.0x forward P/E versus 433.6x for Greenfire Resources Ltd. — 398.5x cheaper on a one-year earnings basis.
07Which pays a better dividend — GFR or OBE?
None of the stocks in this comparison currently pay a material dividend. All are effectively zero-yield and should be held for capital appreciation rather than income.
08Is GFR or OBE better for a retirement portfolio?
For long-horizon retirement investors, Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding (low volatility (β 0.94)). Both have compounded well over 10 years (GFR: -44.9%, OBE: +20.4%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.
09What are the main differences between GFR and OBE?
Both stocks operate in the Energy sector, making this a peer-level intra-sector comparison — the same macro tailwinds and headwinds will affect both. In terms of investment character: GFR is a small-cap deep-value stock; OBE is a small-cap quality compounder stock. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.
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