Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR)
Valuation Overview•Is Greenfire Resources Ltd. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Fragile underlying quality score of 35/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral alongside robust expected earnings growth. The company currently retains all capital for reinvestment and growth rather than returning it to shareholders.
GFR struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($36M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-16.9% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 10.7%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $145.4M | -27.4% | -16.9% | — | — | |
| EBITDA | $28.8M | — | -44.4% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$74.2M | -61.6% | -29.2% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.59 | -62.4% | -30.7% | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$49.0M | -57.6% | -42.1% | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 22.7% | 29.5% | 35.0% | 35.0% |
| Operating Margin | 10.7% | 10.1% | 14.4% | 14.4% |
| Net Margin | -17.9% | 1.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| FCF Margin | -4.6% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.06 | $-0.42 | -832.1% | ||
| Q1'26 | — | $-0.09 | — | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.14 | $-0.08 | -157.1% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.14 | $-0.09 | -164.3% | ||
| Q3'25 | — | $0.51 | — | ||
| Q3'25 | — | $0.50 | — | ||
| Q2'25 | — | $0.16 | — | ||
| Q1'25 | — | $0.78 | — |
Total return is +18.7% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -2.1%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +13.3% | +6.0% | — |
| 1Y | +18.7% | -2.1% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -20.4% | -39.0% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -12.8% | -23.8% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -6.6% | -20.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.0x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Greenfire Resources Ltd. appears Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers.
Greenfire Resources Ltd. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $11.31. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Greenfire Resources Ltd. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 35/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 3.5 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 3.9%.
Greenfire Resources Ltd. does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
Greenfire Resources Ltd.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -27.4% 1Y revenue growth and -62.4% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -16.9%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 1 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 40% of recent quarters with a -3-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for Greenfire Resources Ltd. include: -21.5% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of -0.13x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.