Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.

U.S. markets remained unsettled as cracks emerged in the AI investment boom, while another oil-price surge complicated the inflation outlook ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision. Treasury yields fell for a third straight week as AI-related risk-off flows strengthened, with markets now assigning just 10% odds of an October hike despite still-elevated energy prices. REITs rallied for a third-straight week as earnings opened on an encouraging note: 15 REITs raised full-year FFO guidance, reinforcing the view that fundamentals remain healthier than recent price action.

Rate Shock: REITs enter earnings season on their back foot amid a renewed surge in long-term rates, facing a materially different cost-of-capital and financing environment than just three months ago. The rate surge is again stressing highly leveraged borrowers, particularly across private markets. Public REITs are better positioned, but remain exposed through refinancing, tenant credit, and equity valuations. Higher rates have brought an important silver lining: years of expensive capital are finally curbing construction, with shrinking pipelines beginning to support occupancy, rents, and landlord pricing power.

The October 2026 'Dogs of the Russell 3000' strategy highlights high-yield, fair-priced stocks with analyst-projected net gains up to 81.2% by October 2027. Top ten S-M Russell 3000 stocks offer yields from 10.1% to 19.6%, with all currently trading below projected annual dividends from $1,000 invested. Fifteen out of fifty-one S-M Russell 3000 high-yielders have negative free cash flow margins, signaling caution for dividend sustainability.

U.S. equities stumbled as AI-bubble concerns overwhelmed otherwise resilient fundamentals, while September inflation ran hot but remained heavily energy-driven, complicating the Fed's path without clearly forcing an October hike. Treasuries rallied sharply despite hotter CPI and PPI, with the 2-Year reversing from 4.95% to 4.71% as dovish Fed signals and risk-off flows pushed October hike odds. Oil reemerged as the key macro pressure point, with WTI surging above $100 as Saudi and Hormuz risks intensified, threatening to reverse recent relief in gasoline and diesel prices.