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MSFTMicrosoft Corporation
$498.00$3.70T
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MSFT logo

Microsoft Corporation

MSFT
NASDAQ · Infrastructure Software
$498.00
At close - Sep 22, 4:00 PM EDT - USD
Market Cap$3.7T
P/E27.7x
52W High$553.72
Volume20.58M
OverviewTerminalAnalysisFinancialsValuationEarningsBreakoutsOwnership
VCP Research Verdict2026Q4

AI Capex Surge Pressures Margins Despite Revenue Acceleration

Microsoft's revenue growth accelerated to 17.7% in 2026Q4, driven by cloud and AI monetization, while operating margin expanded to 45.1% from 43.1% a year earlier. However, the aggressive AI infrastructure buildout has driven capex to 39.8% of revenue, compres...

GrowthAccelerating
ProfitabilityStrong
ValuationReview
TechnicalsHealthy
Explore valuation models
MARKET ACTION

MSFT price & volume

Price trend, volume and key moving averages

Launch Terminal
Loading chart...
Decision Checklist4 Core Signals

What matters now

The signals most likely to change the investment case.

01

Earnings momentum

12/12 Beats

EPS beat 12 of last 12 quarters

02

Valuation risk

-22% Peers

P/E is 22% below peer median

03

Market leadership

RS 80 · Leader

High momentum (Outperforming 80% of market)

04

Healthy Uptrend

Uptrend

Price > 50DMA > 200DMA

Next CatalystEstimated earnings · Oct 29
01

Build the investment case

Start with the evidence for owning the stock and the risks that can break the thesis.

EXECUTIVE THESIS

The Investment Case

Full Analysis
Fundamental Trajectory

Revenue growth accelerated to 17.7% in 2026Q4 with operating margin expanding to 45.1%, though gross margin declined to 67.2% from 70.1% in 2024Q3 due to AI mix dilution.

Analyst Consensus+11.1% target
Buy(82 analysts)
66 Buy16 Hold0 Sell

The Bull Case

Upside Catalysts

Strong Azure Growth

Azure is expected to grow over 35% through fiscal year 2026 as supply constraints ease.

Copilot Adoption Driving Revenue

Increased adoption of Microsoft 365 Copilot among enterprise clients is anticipated to significantly boost revenue.

AI Infrastructure Investment

Significant capital expenditures on AI infrastructure are necessary to maintain competitiveness, with new capacity expected in late 2026.

The Bear Case

Key Downside Risks

High AI Capital Expenditures

Planned AI infrastructure spending could reach up to $190 billion in 2026, risking free cash flow margins.

Slowing AI Demand Risks

There are concerns about softening AI demand and execution risks with Microsoft 365 Copilot adoption.

Margin Compression Risks

Increased depreciation from AI infrastructure investments may lead to margin compression.

Market performance

Price History →

Trailing total returns as of 9/23/2026, which may include dividends or other distributions. Benchmark is S&P 500 (^GSPC).

YTD Return
MSFT+5.88%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+13.20%
1-Year Return
MSFT-2.49%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+15.98%
3-Year Return
MSFT+60.23%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+79.82%
5-Year Return
MSFT+71.87%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+73.18%
02

Test the fundamentals

Check whether operating performance supports the current valuation.

VALUATION & INTRINSIC VALUE

Valuation Scenarios

Valuation Analysis
Trailing P/EMedian
27.7x
Forward P/EExpansion
25.2x
EV/EBITDA20th %ile
19.6x
FCF YieldCash Flow
1.8%

Valuation vs 5-Year History

Multiple Range
Metric
Current
5Y Median
Historical Range
Percentile
P/E
27.7x
35.2x
40th· Fair
EV/EBITDA
19.6x
23.3x
20th· Low
Price/FCF
55.2x
42.8x
100th· High
Current Multiple
5Y Median (50th %ile)

Intrinsic Value Scenarios

DCF Projection
Bear$392.91-21.1%
Base (Fair)$629.77+27.5%
Bull$1008.52+102.5%
$392.91 Bear$629.77 Base$1008.52 Bull
Current Market Price: $498.00
Trades at a 20.9% discount to Base DCF ($629.77)
Open DCF & Valuation Models →Chart Terminal ↗

Growth & profitability

Annual revenue & EPS trend
Revenue
$331.84B+17.8% YoY
Net income
$133.75B+31.3% YoY
Free cash flow
$66.99B-6.5% YoY
Operating margin
46.8%+1.2 pts YoY
ROIC (TTM)23.9%
Avg ROIC 5Y-
ROE (TTM)34%
Piotroski Score6 / 9
Financial Statements →
03

Monitor what changed

Recent results and news deserve attention only when they alter the forward view.

OPERATING RESULTS

Recent Earnings

Earnings History
EPS Beat Rate12/12 (100%)
Revenue Beat Rate12/12 (100%)
QuarterEPS (Act vs Est)Revenue (Act vs Est)
Q3 2026Latest
Jul 29, 2026
$4.74+11.8%
vs $4.24
$90.0B+2.7%
vs $87.6B
Q2 2026
Apr 29, 2026
$4.27+5.2%
vs $4.06
$82.9B+1.8%
vs $81.4B
Q1 2026
Jan 28, 2026
$4.14+6.2%
vs $3.90
$81.3B+1.2%
vs $80.3B
Q4 2025
Oct 29, 2025
$4.13+12.5%
vs $3.67
$77.7B+2.9%
vs $75.5B
Historical baseline: 12 quarters analyzedGAAP / Adjusted
MARKET COVERAGE

Latest News

5 Stories
Reuters·9h ago
Microsoft to give DARPA hands-on access to quantum system at new Maryland site

Microsoft on Tuesday said it will give the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency direct, on-site access to its latest quantum ​computing hardware as part of a new research center the company ‌opened in Maryland alongside the University of Maryland and other industry partners.

Reuters·9h ago
Microsoft to keep shareholder proposal rights through 2027, even as SEC reduces oversight

Microsoft will consider shareholder ​proposals at its annual meetings through next year, at the request of an activist looking to preserve ‌investor rights as they come under pressure from a contentious U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission rule change proposed last week.

CNBC·12h ago
Trump discloses more than 1,100 July trades, including up to $25 million sales of Microsoft and Amazon

President Donald Trump disclosed 1,156 securities transactions made on his behalf in July, totaling between roughly $79 million and $270 million, CNBC calculated. The largest were sales of between $5 million and $25 million each of Microsoft and Amazon on July 20.

24/7 Wall Street·13h ago
Big Short Investor Issues AI Warning: ‘70% of AI Revenue Is Just Two Companies, And One of Them I Think Is in Trouble'

Steve Eisman, the money manager who shorted subprime and was portrayed by Steve Carell in The Big Short, warned on his September 21 podcast that the AI trade rests on dangerous concentration.

Filtered for Microsoft CorporationMore Headlines
04

Compare before deciding

Benchmark MSFT against direct peers instead of judging its metrics in isolation.

Peers Comparison

Key metrics vs top competitors for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

Full Screener →
CompanyPriceMarket CapP/E RatioRev Growth (1Y)Net MarginROEDiv Yield
MSFT logoMSFTMicrosoft CorporationCurrent
$498.00$3.7T27.7417.79%40.31%34.04%0.71%
AAPL logoAAPLApple Inc.
$339.75$4.99T45.546.43%27.62%137.18%—
GOOGL logoGOOGLAlphabet Inc.
$351.16$4.25T32.4815.13%54.77%50.84%—
AMZN logoAMZNAmazon.com, Inc.
$254.98$2.74T35.5612.38%17.44%30.5%—
META logoMETAMeta Platforms, Inc.
$736.60$1.87T31.3622.17%29.84%29.73%—
ORCL logoORCLOracle Corporation
$149.12$428.88B25.5817.35%26.36%42.1%—

Compare MSFT vs Peers

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) vs competitors — business, growth, and fundamentals comparison against the closest industry rivals.

Closest Rival

vs AAPL

Most directly comparable listed peer for MSFT.

Scale Benchmark

vs NVDA

Larger-name benchmark to compare MSFT against a more recognizable public peer.

Peer Set

Compare Top 5

vs AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, META

05

Keep researching

Verify the primary filings, follow material updates, and answer the remaining questions.

MSFT SEC Filings & Documents

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) SEC filings — annual & quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q)

8-K Announcements

6
Material company update

Jul 29, 2026·SEC

Material company update

Jun 5, 2026·SEC

Material company update

May 14, 2026·SEC

10-K Annual Reports

2
FY 2026

Jul 29, 2026·SEC

FY 2025

Jul 30, 2025·SEC

10-Q Quarterly Reports

5
FY 2026

Apr 29, 2026·SEC

FY 2026

Jan 28, 2026·SEC

FY 2025

Oct 29, 2025·SEC

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MSFT Frequently Asked Questions

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) stock FAQ — growth, dividends, profitability & financials explained

Growth & Financials
What is Microsoft Corporation's revenue?

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) reported $331.84B in revenue for fiscal year 2026. This represents a 2680% increase from $11.94B in 1997.

How fast is Microsoft Corporation growing?

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) grew revenue by 17.8% over the past year. This is strong growth.

Is MSFT profitable?

Yes, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is profitable, generating $133.75B in net income for fiscal year 2026 (40.3% net margin).

Dividend & Returns
Does MSFT pay dividends?

Yes, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) pays a dividend with a yield of 0.71%. This makes it attractive for income-focused investors.

What is MSFT's return on equity?

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) has a return on equity (ROE) of 34.0%. This is excellent, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.

What is Microsoft Corporation's free cash flow?

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) generated $66.99B in free cash flow for fiscal year 2026. Positive FCF indicates the company can fund dividends, buybacks, or reinvestment.

What if you invested $1,000 in MSFT back in 1997?

Total return calculator · dividends reinvested · 29+ years of data

See returns →