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Sanofi (SNY) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Sanofi (SNY)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$47.20
→
Intrinsic$54.57
+16%
$35.20$54.57$93.09
Market implies 11% growth for 5 years
SNY shows 16% potential upside using 14% growth — reasonable if fundamentals hold.
At $47, the market prices in 11% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (14%).
Range: Bear $35 → Bull $93. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
Discount ↓Growth →10%12%14%16%
8%$69$75$82$89
10%$46$50$55$59
12%$34$37$40$44
14%$26$29$31$34

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($93) offers 97% upside at 17% growth, 8% discount
  • 14% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
  • Market-implied growth (11%) ≤ historical CAGR (14%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($35) implies 25% downside at 11% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$6.71B
Year 2$7.64B
Year 3$8.71B
Year 4$9.92B
Year 5$11.31B
Terminal$179.18B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate13.9%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$5.89BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is SNY stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟡 FAIRLY VALUED

SNY trades at $47.20, within 10% of our $54.57 intrinsic value estimate. At 9.5% WACC and 13.9% FCF growth, the market is pricing in assumptions roughly aligned with the 5-year historical CAGR. The valuation range spans $35.53 (bear) to $82.24 (bull).

What is SNY's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $5.89B, projected at 13.9% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 9.5% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $10.46B net debt and dividing by 2.50B shares: Bear $35.53 | Base $54.57 | Bull $82.24. Current price $47.20 implies +13% to base case.

How is SNY's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 13.9% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=9.5%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($147.04B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 25.0x.