Comprehensive Stock Comparison
Compare Nelnet, Inc. (NNI) vs Mastercard Incorporated (MA) vs American Express Company (AXP) Stock
Analyze side-by-side fundamentals, valuation, growth, and profitability to decide which stock is the better buy.
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Quick Verdict
| Category | Winner | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | MA | 16.4% revenue growth vs NNI's -55.5% |
| Value | NNI | Lower P/E (14.7x vs 17.6x) |
| Quality / Margins | MA | 45.6% net margin vs AXP's 13.7% |
| Stability / Safety | NNI | Beta 0.64 vs AXP's 1.35 |
| Dividends | NNI | 3.1% yield, 12-year raise streak, vs MA's 0.6% |
| Momentum (1Y) | NNI | +7.0% vs MA's -9.7% |
| Efficiency (ROA) | MA | 27.6% ROA vs NNI's 3.0% |
Who Each Stock Is For
Income & stability
Growth exposure
Long-term compounding (10Y)
Sleep-well-at-night portfolio
Valuation efficiency (growth/$)
Defensive / Recession hedge
Business Model
What each company does and how it makes money
Nelnet is a diversified financial services company focused primarily on student loan servicing and education technology. It generates revenue through loan servicing fees (its largest segment), education technology platforms, and payment processing services for educational institutions. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep expertise in the complex student loan ecosystem and its established relationships with educational institutions and government agencies.
Mastercard is a global payment technology company that operates a network connecting consumers, merchants, financial institutions, and governments. It generates revenue primarily from transaction processing fees—charging a small percentage of each payment volume—and from service fees for its data analytics, consulting, and security solutions. The company's moat lies in its massive two-sided network effect—the more merchants accept Mastercard, the more valuable it becomes to cardholders, and vice versa—creating a powerful ecosystem that's difficult to replicate.
American Express is a global payments and financial services company that issues charge and credit cards to consumers and businesses. It generates revenue primarily from discount fees charged to merchants — typically 2-3% of transaction value — and cardmember fees, with additional income from interest on revolving balances and travel services. Its key competitive advantage is its premium brand positioning and closed-loop network — which allows it to control both card issuance and merchant acceptance while collecting rich transaction data.
Revenue Breakdown by Segment
How each company's revenue is distributed across its business units
Financial Metrics Comparison
Side-by-side fundamentals across 3 stocks. BestLagging
Financial Scorecard
MA leads in 2 of 6 categories (Financial Metrics, Profitability & Efficiency). NNI leads in 2 (Valuation Metrics, Risk & Volatility). 1 tied.
Financial Metrics (TTM)
AXP is the larger business by revenue, generating $74.2B annually — 90.3x NNI's $822M. MA is the more profitable business, keeping 45.6% of every revenue dollar as net income compared to AXP's 13.7%.
| Metric | NNINelnet, Inc. | MAMastercard Incorp… | AXPAmerican Express … |
|---|---|---|---|
| RevenueTrailing 12 months | $822M | $32.8B | $74.2B |
| EBITDAEarnings before interest/tax | $726M | $20.5B | $15.2B |
| Net IncomeAfter-tax profit | $428M | $15.0B | $10.5B |
| Free Cash FlowCash after capex | $267M | $17.1B | $18.9B |
| Gross MarginGross profit ÷ Revenue | — | +83.4% | +81.9% |
| Operating MarginEBIT ÷ Revenue | — | +59.2% | +17.4% |
| Net MarginNet income ÷ Revenue | +32.4% | +45.6% | +13.7% |
| FCF MarginFCF ÷ Revenue | -9.5% | +52.3% | +16.4% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | — | — | — |
| EPS Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | -6.4% | +24.2% | +18.6% |
Valuation Metrics
At 22.0x trailing earnings, AXP trades at a 30% valuation discount to MA's 31.3x P/E. Adjusting for growth (PEG ratio), MA offers better value at 1.49x vs AXP's 1.85x — a lower PEG means you pay less per unit of expected earnings growth.
| Metric | NNINelnet, Inc. | MAMastercard Incorp… | AXPAmerican Express … |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market CapShares × price | $1.4B | $457.8B | $212.8B |
| Enterprise ValueMkt cap + debt − cash | -$1.3B | $465.7B | $223.4B |
| Trailing P/EPrice ÷ TTM EPS | — | 31.31x | 22.03x |
| Forward P/EPrice ÷ next-FY EPS est. | 14.70x | 26.43x | 17.58x |
| PEG RatioP/E ÷ EPS growth rate | — | 1.49x | 1.85x |
| EV / EBITDAEnterprise value multiple | -1.75x | 22.67x | 15.33x |
| Price / SalesMarket cap ÷ Revenue | 1.67x | 13.96x | 2.87x |
| Price / BookPrice ÷ Book value/share | 0.88x | 59.96x | 7.28x |
| Price / FCFMarket cap ÷ FCF | — | 26.68x | 17.53x |
Profitability & Efficiency
MA delivers a 193.0% return on equity — every $100 of shareholder capital generates $193 in annual profit, vs $27 for NNI. AXP carries lower financial leverage with a 1.69x debt-to-equity ratio, signaling a more conservative balance sheet compared to MA's 2.45x. On the Piotroski fundamental quality scale (0–9), MA scores 9/9 vs NNI's 3/9, reflecting strong financial health.
| Metric | NNINelnet, Inc. | MAMastercard Incorp… | AXPAmerican Express … |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE (TTM)Return on equity | +27.3% | +193.0% | +32.5% |
| ROA (TTM)Return on assets | +3.0% | +27.6% | +3.5% |
| ROICReturn on invested capital | — | +56.5% | +12.2% |
| ROCEReturn on capital employed | — | +64.4% | +11.2% |
| Piotroski ScoreFundamental quality 0–9 | 3 | 9 | 7 |
| Debt / EquityFinancial leverage | — | 2.45x | 1.69x |
| Net DebtTotal debt minus cash | -$2.6B | $7.9B | $10.5B |
| Cash & Equiv.Liquid assets | $2.6B | $11.1B | $40.6B |
| Total DebtShort + long-term debt | $0 | $19.0B | $51.1B |
| Interest CoverageEBIT ÷ Interest expense | 0.97x | 26.39x | 1.64x |
Total Returns (with DRIP)
A $10,000 investment in AXP five years ago would be worth $23,155 today (with dividends reinvested), compared to $14,586 for MA. Over the past 12 months, NNI leads with a +7.0% total return vs MA's -9.7%. The 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) favors AXP at 22.2% vs NNI's 12.4% — a key indicator of consistent wealth creation.
| Metric | NNINelnet, Inc. | MAMastercard Incorp… | AXPAmerican Express … |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD ReturnYear-to-date | +0.6% | -8.0% | -16.9% |
| 1-Year ReturnPast 12 months | +7.0% | -9.7% | +3.7% |
| 3-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +41.9% | +47.9% | +82.4% |
| 5-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +81.9% | +45.9% | +131.5% |
| 10-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +267.6% | +515.7% | +491.2% |
| CAGR (3Y)Annualised 3-year return | +12.4% | +13.9% | +22.2% |
Risk & Volatility
NNI is the less volatile stock with a 0.64 beta — it tends to amplify market swings less than AXP's 1.35 beta. A beta below 1.0 means the stock typically moves less than the S&P 500. NNI currently trades 90.6% from its 52-week high vs AXP's 79.7% drawdown — a narrower gap to the peak suggests stronger recent price momentum.
| Metric | NNINelnet, Inc. | MAMastercard Incorp… | AXPAmerican Express … |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beta (5Y)Sensitivity to S&P 500 | 0.64x | 0.78x | 1.35x |
| 52-Week HighHighest price in past year | $142.87 | $601.77 | $387.49 |
| 52-Week LowLowest price in past year | $98.15 | $465.59 | $220.43 |
| % of 52W HighCurrent price vs 52-week peak | +90.6% | +85.9% | +79.7% |
| RSI (14)Momentum oscillator 0–100 | 50.1 | 42.8 | 42.2 |
| Avg Volume (50D)Average daily shares traded | 82K | 3.2M | 2.4M |
Analyst Outlook
Analyst consensus: NNI as "Hold", MA as "Buy", AXP as "Hold". Consensus price targets imply 29.0% upside for MA (target: $667) vs 21.3% for AXP (target: $375). For income investors, NNI offers the higher dividend yield at 3.13% vs MA's 0.59%.
| Metric | NNINelnet, Inc. | MAMastercard Incorp… | AXPAmerican Express … |
|---|---|---|---|
| Analyst RatingConsensus buy/hold/sell | Hold | Buy | Hold |
| Price TargetConsensus 12-month target | — | $667.00 | $374.58 |
| # AnalystsCovering analysts | 3 | 63 | 56 |
| Dividend YieldAnnual dividend ÷ price | +3.1% | +0.6% | +0.9% |
| Dividend StreakConsecutive years of raises | 12 | 14 | 14 |
| Dividend / ShareAnnual DPS | $4.05 | $3.07 | $2.80 |
| Buyback YieldShare repurchases ÷ mkt cap | +5.0% | +2.6% | +2.8% |
Historical Charts
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Chart 1Total Return — 5 Years (Rebased to 100)
| Stock | Mar 20 | Feb 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nelnet, Inc. (NNI) | 100 | 255.17 | +155.2% |
| Mastercard Incorpor… (MA) | 100 | 181.06 | +81.1% |
| American Express Co… (AXP) | 100 | 309.85 | +209.9% |
American Express Co… (AXP) returned +132% over 5 years vs Mastercard Incorpor… (MA)'s +46%. A $10,000 investment in AXP 5 years ago would be worth $23,155 today (including dividends reinvested).
Chart 2Revenue Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nelnet, Inc. (NNI) | $1.2B | $822M | -31.2% |
| Mastercard Incorpor… (MA) | $10.8B | $32.8B | +204.3% |
| American Express Co… (AXP) | $38.4B | $74.2B | +93.4% |
Nelnet, Inc.'s revenue grew from $1.2B (2016) to $822M (2025) — a -4.1% CAGR. Mastercard Incorporated's revenue grew from $10.8B (2016) to $32.8B (2025) — a 13.2% CAGR.
Chart 3Net Margin Trend — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nelnet, Inc. (NNI) | 21.5% | 32.4% | +50.7% |
| Mastercard Incorpor… (MA) | 37.7% | 45.6% | +21.2% |
| American Express Co… (AXP) | 14.0% | 13.7% | -2.6% |
Nelnet, Inc.'s net margin went from 22% (2016) to 32% (2025). Mastercard Incorporated's net margin went from 38% (2016) to 46% (2025).
Chart 4P/E Ratio History — 9 Years
| Stock | 2017 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nelnet, Inc. (NNI) | 13.2 | 21.3 | +61.4% |
| Mastercard Incorpor… (MA) | 41.5 | 34.6 | -16.6% |
| American Express Co… (AXP) | 33.4 | 21.2 | -36.5% |
Nelnet, Inc. has traded in a 8x–37x P/E range over 8 years; current trailing P/E is ~21x. Mastercard Incorporated has traded in a 34x–56x P/E range over 9 years; current trailing P/E is ~31x.
Chart 5EPS Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nelnet, Inc. (NNI) | 6.02 | 0 | -100.0% |
| Mastercard Incorpor… (MA) | 3.69 | 16.52 | +347.7% |
| American Express Co… (AXP) | 5.65 | 14.02 | +148.1% |
Nelnet, Inc.'s EPS grew from $6.02 (2016) to $0.00 (2025) — a -100% CAGR. Mastercard Incorporated's EPS grew from $3.69 (2016) to $16.52 (2025) — a 18% CAGR.
Chart 6Free Cash Flow — 5 Years
Nelnet, Inc. generated $-78M FCF in 2025 (-119% vs 2021). Mastercard Incorporated generated $17B FCF in 2025 (+98% vs 2021).
NNI vs MA vs AXP: Key Questions Answered
9 questions · data-driven answers · updated daily
01Is NNI or MA or AXP a better buy right now?
American Express Company (AXP) offers the better valuation at 22.0x trailing P/E (17.6x forward), making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate Mastercard Incorporated (MA) a "Buy" — based on 63 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.
02Which has the better valuation — NNI or MA or AXP?
On trailing P/E, American Express Company (AXP) is the cheapest at 22.0x versus Mastercard Incorporated at 31.3x. On forward P/E, Nelnet, Inc. is actually cheaper at 14.7x — notably different from the trailing picture, reflecting expected earnings growth. The PEG ratio (P/E divided by earnings growth rate) is the most growth-adjusted single valuation metric: Mastercard Incorporated wins at 1.26x versus American Express Company's 1.48x — a reasonable growth-adjusted valuation.
03Which is the better long-term investment — NNI or MA or AXP?
Over the past 5 years, American Express Company (AXP) delivered a total return of +131.5%, compared to +45.9% for Mastercard Incorporated (MA). A $10,000 investment in AXP five years ago would be worth approximately $23K today (assuming dividends reinvested). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: MA returned +515.7% versus NNI's +267.6%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.
04Which is safer — NNI or MA or AXP?
By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), Nelnet, Inc. (NNI) is the lower-risk stock at 0.64β versus American Express Company's 1.35β — meaning AXP is approximately 109% more volatile than NNI relative to the S&P 500. On balance sheet safety, American Express Company (AXP) carries a lower debt/equity ratio of 169% versus 2% for Mastercard Incorporated — giving it more financial flexibility in a downturn.
05Which has better profit margins — NNI or MA or AXP?
Mastercard Incorporated (MA) is the more profitable company, earning 45.6% net margin versus 13.7% for American Express Company — meaning it keeps 45.6% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: MA leads at 59.2% versus 0.0% for NNI. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — MA leads at 83.4%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.
06Is NNI or MA or AXP more undervalued right now?
The PEG ratio (forward P/E divided by expected earnings growth rate) is the most precise measure of undervaluation relative to growth potential. By this metric, Mastercard Incorporated (MA) is the more undervalued stock at a PEG of 1.26x versus American Express Company's 1.48x. A PEG below 1.5 suggests fair-to-attractive pricing relative to expected growth. On forward earnings alone, Nelnet, Inc. (NNI) trades at 14.7x forward P/E versus 26.4x for Mastercard Incorporated — 11.7x cheaper on a one-year earnings basis. Analyst consensus price targets imply the most upside for MA: 29.0% to $667.00.
07Which pays a better dividend — NNI or MA or AXP?
All stocks in this comparison pay dividends. Nelnet, Inc. (NNI) offers the highest yield at 3.1%, versus 0.6% for Mastercard Incorporated (MA).
08Is NNI or MA or AXP better for a retirement portfolio?
For long-horizon retirement investors, Mastercard Incorporated (MA) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding (low volatility (β 0.78), 0.6% yield, +515.7% 10Y return). Both have compounded well over 10 years (MA: +515.7%, AXP: +491.2%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.
09What are the main differences between NNI and MA and AXP?
Both stocks operate in the Financial Services sector, making this a peer-level intra-sector comparison — the same macro tailwinds and headwinds will affect both. In terms of investment character: NNI is a small-cap income-oriented stock; MA is a large-cap quality compounder stock; AXP is a large-cap quality compounder stock. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.
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