Comprehensive Stock Comparison
Compare Novartis AG (NVS) vs Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) vs Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Stock
Analyze side-by-side fundamentals, valuation, growth, and profitability to decide which stock is the better buy.
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Quick Verdict
| Category | Winner | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | LLY | 32.0% revenue growth vs JNJ's 4.3% |
| Value | NVS | Lower P/E (19.0x vs 21.5x), PEG 1.24 vs 38.22 |
| Quality / Margins | LLY | 31.0% net margin vs NVS's 24.9% |
| Stability / Safety | JNJ | Beta 0.06 vs LLY's 0.65, lower leverage |
| Dividends | NVS | 2.4% yield, 6-year raise streak, vs LLY's 0.5% |
| Momentum (1Y) | NVS | +57.6% vs LLY's +15.0% |
| Efficiency (ROA) | LLY | 16.0% ROA vs NVS's 12.1%, ROIC 33.7% vs 18.8% |
Who Each Stock Is For
Income & stability
Growth exposure
Long-term compounding (10Y)
Sleep-well-at-night portfolio
Valuation efficiency (growth/$)
Defensive / Recession hedge
Business Model
What each company does and how it makes money
Novartis is a global pharmaceutical company that develops and markets innovative prescription drugs and generic medicines. It generates revenue primarily from its Innovative Medicines segment — which includes oncology, immunology, and cardiovascular drugs — and its Sandoz generics division, with Innovative Medicines contributing roughly 80% of total sales. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep R&D pipeline, strong patent protection for blockbuster drugs, and global commercial infrastructure that spans both branded and generic markets.
Eli Lilly is a global pharmaceutical company that discovers, develops, and markets innovative medicines for serious diseases like diabetes, cancer, and autoimmune disorders. It generates revenue primarily from drug sales — with diabetes treatments like Trulicity and Mounjaro contributing over 50% of revenue — and from oncology and immunology products. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep research and development capabilities, particularly in diabetes and obesity treatments where it has established a strong patent-protected portfolio.
Johnson & Johnson is a global healthcare company focused on innovative medicines and medical technology. It generates revenue primarily from its Innovative Medicine segment — prescription drugs for complex diseases like cancer and autoimmune disorders — and its MedTech segment — medical devices including orthopedics, surgery tools, and contact lenses. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive R&D scale, deep scientific expertise, and diversified portfolio of patented pharmaceuticals and medical devices.
Revenue Breakdown by Segment
How each company's revenue is distributed across its business units
Financial Metrics Comparison
Side-by-side fundamentals across 3 stocks. BestLagging
Financial Scorecard
LLY leads in 3 of 6 categories (Financial Metrics, Profitability & Efficiency). NVS leads in 1 (Valuation Metrics). 1 tied.
Financial Metrics (TTM)
JNJ is the larger business by revenue, generating $92.1B annually — 1.6x NVS's $56.1B. LLY is the more profitable business, keeping 31.0% of every revenue dollar as net income compared to NVS's 24.9%. On growth, LLY holds the edge at +53.9% YoY revenue growth, suggesting stronger near-term business momentum.
| Metric | NVSNovartis AG | LLYEli Lilly and Com… | JNJJohnson & Johnson |
|---|---|---|---|
| RevenueTrailing 12 months | $56.1B | $59.4B | $92.1B |
| EBITDAEarnings before interest/tax | $22.4B | $28.6B | $31.4B |
| Net IncomeAfter-tax profit | $14.0B | $18.4B | $25.1B |
| Free Cash FlowCash after capex | $15.6B | $9.0B | $19.1B |
| Gross MarginGross profit ÷ Revenue | +73.2% | +83.0% | +68.1% |
| Operating MarginEBIT ÷ Revenue | +30.4% | +45.0% | +26.1% |
| Net MarginNet income ÷ Revenue | +24.9% | +31.0% | +27.3% |
| FCF MarginFCF ÷ Revenue | +27.9% | +15.2% | +20.7% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | -1.6% | +53.9% | +6.8% |
| EPS Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | -11.3% | +4.8% | +91.0% |
Valuation Metrics
At 23.5x trailing earnings, NVS trades at a 74% valuation discount to LLY's 89.9x P/E. Adjusting for growth (PEG ratio), NVS offers better value at 1.53x vs JNJ's 38.22x — a lower PEG means you pay less per unit of expected earnings growth.
| Metric | NVSNovartis AG | LLYEli Lilly and Com… | JNJJohnson & Johnson |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market CapShares × price | $321.8B | $941.7B | $598.7B |
| Enterprise ValueMkt cap + debt − cash | $347.4B | $972.1B | $611.2B |
| Trailing P/EPrice ÷ TTM EPS | 23.45x | 89.85x | 42.91x |
| Forward P/EPrice ÷ next-FY EPS est. | 18.99x | 30.86x | 21.48x |
| PEG RatioP/E ÷ EPS growth rate | 1.53x | 14.62x | 38.22x |
| EV / EBITDAEnterprise value multiple | 15.49x | 50.45x | 20.73x |
| Price / SalesMarket cap ÷ Revenue | 5.87x | 20.91x | 6.74x |
| Price / BookPrice ÷ Book value/share | 7.08x | 66.65x | 8.44x |
| Price / FCFMarket cap ÷ FCF | 18.19x | 2273.08x | 30.17x |
Profitability & Efficiency
LLY delivers a 77.2% return on equity — every $100 of shareholder capital generates $77 in annual profit, vs $30 for NVS. JNJ carries lower financial leverage with a 0.51x debt-to-equity ratio, signaling a more conservative balance sheet compared to LLY's 2.36x. On the Piotroski fundamental quality scale (0–9), NVS scores 6/9 vs JNJ's 5/9, reflecting solid financial health.
| Metric | NVSNovartis AG | LLYEli Lilly and Com… | JNJJohnson & Johnson |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE (TTM)Return on equity | +30.0% | +77.2% | +31.7% |
| ROA (TTM)Return on assets | +12.1% | +16.0% | +13.0% |
| ROICReturn on invested capital | +18.8% | +33.7% | +20.7% |
| ROCEReturn on capital employed | +21.1% | +40.2% | +17.6% |
| Piotroski ScoreFundamental quality 0–9 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| Debt / EquityFinancial leverage | 0.80x | 2.36x | 0.51x |
| Net DebtTotal debt minus cash | $25.6B | $30.4B | $12.5B |
| Cash & Equiv.Liquid assets | $11.4B | $3.3B | $24.1B |
| Total DebtShort + long-term debt | $37.0B | $33.6B | $36.6B |
| Interest CoverageEBIT ÷ Interest expense | 15.35x | 26.09x | 48.23x |
Total Returns (with DRIP)
A $10,000 investment in LLY five years ago would be worth $52,120 today (with dividends reinvested), compared to $17,079 for JNJ. Over the past 12 months, NVS leads with a +57.6% total return vs LLY's +15.0%. The 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) favors LLY at 50.9% vs JNJ's 19.8% — a key indicator of consistent wealth creation.
| Metric | NVSNovartis AG | LLYEli Lilly and Com… | JNJJohnson & Johnson |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD ReturnYear-to-date | +21.7% | -2.4% | +20.4% |
| 1-Year ReturnPast 12 months | +57.6% | +15.0% | +53.7% |
| 3-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +122.8% | +243.3% | +71.8% |
| 5-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +119.5% | +421.2% | +70.8% |
| 10-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +221.6% | +1411.6% | +175.7% |
| CAGR (3Y)Annualised 3-year return | +30.6% | +50.9% | +19.8% |
Risk & Volatility
JNJ is the less volatile stock with a 0.06 beta — it tends to amplify market swings less than LLY's 0.65 beta. A beta below 1.0 means the stock typically moves less than the S&P 500. JNJ currently trades 99.8% from its 52-week high vs LLY's 92.8% drawdown — a narrower gap to the peak suggests stronger recent price momentum.
| Metric | NVSNovartis AG | LLYEli Lilly and Com… | JNJJohnson & Johnson |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beta (5Y)Sensitivity to S&P 500 | 0.24x | 0.65x | 0.06x |
| 52-Week HighHighest price in past year | $170.46 | $1133.95 | $248.93 |
| 52-Week LowLowest price in past year | $97.72 | $623.78 | $141.50 |
| % of 52W HighCurrent price vs 52-week peak | +98.9% | +92.8% | +99.8% |
| RSI (14)Momentum oscillator 0–100 | 70.2 | 46.9 | 66.2 |
| Avg Volume (50D)Average daily shares traded | 1.7M | 2.6M | 7.1M |
Analyst Outlook
Analyst consensus: NVS as "Hold", LLY as "Buy", JNJ as "Buy". Consensus price targets imply 15.4% upside for LLY (target: $1214) vs -24.7% for NVS (target: $127). For income investors, NVS offers the higher dividend yield at 2.38% vs LLY's 0.49%.
| Metric | NVSNovartis AG | LLYEli Lilly and Com… | JNJJohnson & Johnson |
|---|---|---|---|
| Analyst RatingConsensus buy/hold/sell | Hold | Buy | Buy |
| Price TargetConsensus 12-month target | $127.00 | $1214.28 | $229.33 |
| # AnalystsCovering analysts | 25 | 44 | 39 |
| Dividend YieldAnnual dividend ÷ price | +2.4% | +0.5% | +2.0% |
| Dividend StreakConsecutive years of raises | 6 | 10 | 36 |
| Dividend / ShareAnnual DPS | $4.02 | $5.18 | $4.87 |
| Buyback YieldShare repurchases ÷ mkt cap | +2.9% | +0.3% | +0.4% |
Historical Charts
Charts are rendered on first load. Hover for details.
Chart 1Total Return — 5 Years (Rebased to 100)
| Stock | Mar 20 | Feb 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Novartis AG (NVS) | 100 | 183.75 | +83.7% |
| Eli Lilly and Compa… (LLY) | 100 | 786.01 | +686.0% |
| Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) | 100 | 164.8 | +64.8% |
Eli Lilly and Compa… (LLY) returned +421% over 5 years vs Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)'s +71%. A $10,000 investment in LLY 5 years ago would be worth $52,120 today (including dividends reinvested).
Chart 2Revenue Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Novartis AG (NVS) | $49.4B | $54.8B | +10.9% |
| Eli Lilly and Compa… (LLY) | $21.2B | $45.0B | +112.2% |
| Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) | $71.9B | $88.8B | +23.6% |
Novartis AG's revenue grew from $49.4B (2016) to $54.8B (2025) — a 1.2% CAGR.
Chart 3Net Margin Trend — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Novartis AG (NVS) | 13.6% | 25.6% | +88.9% |
| Eli Lilly and Compa… (LLY) | 12.9% | 23.5% | +82.3% |
| Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) | 23.0% | 15.8% | -31.2% |
Novartis AG's net margin went from 14% (2016) to 26% (2025).
Chart 4P/E Ratio History — 9 Years
| Stock | 2017 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Novartis AG (NVS) | 21.6 | 19.2 | -11.1% |
| Eli Lilly and Compa… (LLY) | 37 | 65.9 | +78.1% |
| Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) | 297.3 | 25 | -91.6% |
Novartis AG has traded in a 8x–29x P/E range over 9 years; current trailing P/E is ~23x. Eli Lilly and Company has traded in a 15x–101x P/E range over 7 years; current trailing P/E is ~90x.
Chart 5EPS Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Novartis AG (NVS) | 2.8 | 7.19 | +156.8% |
| Eli Lilly and Compa… (LLY) | 2.49 | 11.71 | +370.3% |
| Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) | 5.93 | 5.79 | -2.4% |
Novartis AG's EPS grew from $2.80 (2016) to $7.19 (2025) — a 11% CAGR.
Chart 6Free Cash Flow — 5 Years
Novartis AG generated $18B FCF in 2025 (+41% vs 2021). Eli Lilly and Company generated $414M FCF in 2024 (-92% vs 2021).
NVS vs LLY vs JNJ: Key Questions Answered
9 questions · data-driven answers · updated daily
01Is NVS or LLY or JNJ a better buy right now?
Novartis AG (NVS) offers the better valuation at 23.5x trailing P/E (19.0x forward), making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) a "Buy" — based on 44 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.
02Which has the better valuation — NVS or LLY or JNJ?
On trailing P/E, Novartis AG (NVS) is the cheapest at 23.5x versus Eli Lilly and Company at 89.9x. On forward P/E, Novartis AG is actually cheaper at 19.0x. The PEG ratio (P/E divided by earnings growth rate) is the most growth-adjusted single valuation metric: Novartis AG wins at 1.24x versus Johnson & Johnson's 38.22x — a reasonable growth-adjusted valuation.
03Which is the better long-term investment — NVS or LLY or JNJ?
Over the past 5 years, Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) delivered a total return of +421.2%, compared to +70.8% for Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). A $10,000 investment in LLY five years ago would be worth approximately $52K today (assuming dividends reinvested). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: LLY returned +1412% versus JNJ's +175.7%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.
04Which is safer — NVS or LLY or JNJ?
By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is the lower-risk stock at 0.06β versus Eli Lilly and Company's 0.65β — meaning LLY is approximately 1071% more volatile than JNJ relative to the S&P 500. On balance sheet safety, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) carries a lower debt/equity ratio of 51% versus 2% for Eli Lilly and Company — giving it more financial flexibility in a downturn.
05Which has better profit margins — NVS or LLY or JNJ?
Novartis AG (NVS) is the more profitable company, earning 25.6% net margin versus 15.8% for Johnson & Johnson — meaning it keeps 25.6% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: LLY leads at 38.9% versus 24.9% for JNJ. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — LLY leads at 81.3%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.
06Is NVS or LLY or JNJ more undervalued right now?
The PEG ratio (forward P/E divided by expected earnings growth rate) is the most precise measure of undervaluation relative to growth potential. By this metric, Novartis AG (NVS) is the more undervalued stock at a PEG of 1.24x versus Johnson & Johnson's 38.22x. A PEG below 1.5 suggests fair-to-attractive pricing relative to expected growth. On forward earnings alone, Novartis AG (NVS) trades at 19.0x forward P/E versus 30.9x for Eli Lilly and Company — 11.9x cheaper on a one-year earnings basis. Analyst consensus price targets imply the most upside for LLY: 15.4% to $1214.28.
07Which pays a better dividend — NVS or LLY or JNJ?
All stocks in this comparison pay dividends. Novartis AG (NVS) offers the highest yield at 2.4%, versus 0.5% for Eli Lilly and Company (LLY).
08Is NVS or LLY or JNJ better for a retirement portfolio?
For long-horizon retirement investors, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding (low volatility (β 0.06), 2.0% yield, +175.7% 10Y return). Both have compounded well over 10 years (JNJ: +175.7%, LLY: +1412%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.
09What are the main differences between NVS and LLY and JNJ?
Both stocks operate in the Healthcare sector, making this a peer-level intra-sector comparison — the same macro tailwinds and headwinds will affect both. NVS, JNJ pay a dividend while LLY does not, making them suitable for different income and tax situations. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.
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