Comprehensive Stock Comparison
Compare Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) vs The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 (CGABL) Stock
Analyze side-by-side fundamentals, valuation, growth, and profitability to decide which stock is the better buy.
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Quick Verdict
| Category | Winner | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | CGABL | 83.1% revenue growth vs AGM's -0.8% |
| Value | CGABL | Lower P/E (6.4x vs 8.4x) |
| Quality / Margins | CGABL | 18.8% net margin vs AGM's 11.3% |
| Stability / Safety | CGABL | Beta 0.20 vs AGM's 0.67 |
| Dividends | AGM | 5.1% yield, 14-year raise streak, vs CGABL's 7.8% |
| Momentum (1Y) | CGABL | +4.0% vs AGM's -21.7% |
| Efficiency (ROA) | CGABL | 2.9% ROA vs AGM's 0.5% |
Who Each Stock Is For
Income & stability
Growth exposure
Long-term compounding (10Y)
Sleep-well-at-night portfolio
Defensive / Recession hedge
Business Model
What each company does and how it makes money
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (Farmer Mac) is a government-sponsored enterprise that provides a secondary market for agricultural and rural infrastructure loans in the United States. It makes money primarily through guarantee fees on loan-backed securities (about 60% of revenue) and net interest income from its retained loan portfolio (about 40%). Its key advantage is its government-sponsored status, which provides lower funding costs and regulatory advantages in the agricultural lending market.
The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 is a financing subsidiary that issues long-term debt securities to raise capital for The Carlyle Group's investment activities. It generates revenue through interest payments on these notes — which are subordinated to other debt — providing investors with fixed income while funding Carlyle's private equity, real estate, and credit investments. Its key advantage lies in being backed by The Carlyle Group's established global investment platform and creditworthiness, though the notes themselves represent a specific debt obligation rather than equity in the parent company.
Revenue Breakdown by Segment
How each company's revenue is distributed across its business units
Segment breakdown not available.
Financial Metrics Comparison
Side-by-side fundamentals across 2 stocks. BestLagging
Financial Scorecard
CGABL leads in 4 of 6 categories (Financial Metrics, Valuation Metrics). AGM leads in 1 (Total Returns). 1 tied.
Financial Metrics (TTM)
CGABL is the larger business by revenue, generating $5.4B annually — 3.4x AGM's $1.6B. CGABL is the more profitable business, keeping 18.8% of every revenue dollar as net income compared to AGM's 11.3%.
| Metric | AGMFederal Agricultu… | CGABLThe Carlyle Group… |
|---|---|---|
| RevenueTrailing 12 months | $1.6B | $5.4B |
| EBITDAEarnings before interest/tax | $0 | $249M |
| Net IncomeAfter-tax profit | $182M | $773M |
| Free Cash FlowCash after capex | $80M | $1.1B |
| Gross MarginGross profit ÷ Revenue | — | +50.1% |
| Operating MarginEBIT ÷ Revenue | — | +25.2% |
| Net MarginNet income ÷ Revenue | +11.3% | +18.8% |
| FCF MarginFCF ÷ Revenue | +5.0% | +18.6% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | — | — |
| EPS Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | -20.1% | -81.6% |
Valuation Metrics
At 6.4x trailing earnings, CGABL trades at a 33% valuation discount to AGM's 9.5x P/E.
| Metric | AGMFederal Agricultu… | CGABLThe Carlyle Group… |
|---|---|---|
| Market CapShares × price | $1.5B | $6.3B |
| Enterprise ValueMkt cap + debt − cash | $31.4B | $5.1B |
| Trailing P/EPrice ÷ TTM EPS | 9.48x | 6.35x |
| Forward P/EPrice ÷ next-FY EPS est. | 8.36x | — |
| PEG RatioP/E ÷ EPS growth rate | 0.63x | — |
| EV / EBITDAEnterprise value multiple | — | 3.26x |
| Price / SalesMarket cap ÷ Revenue | 0.91x | 1.17x |
| Price / BookPrice ÷ Book value/share | 1.01x | 0.91x |
| Price / FCFMarket cap ÷ FCF | 18.36x | 6.26x |
Profitability & Efficiency
AGM delivers a 10.6% return on equity — every $100 of shareholder capital generates $11 in annual profit, vs $10 for CGABL. On the Piotroski fundamental quality scale (0–9), CGABL scores 6/9 vs AGM's 4/9, reflecting solid financial health.
| Metric | AGMFederal Agricultu… | CGABLThe Carlyle Group… |
|---|---|---|
| ROE (TTM)Return on equity | +10.6% | +9.6% |
| ROA (TTM)Return on assets | +0.5% | +2.9% |
| ROICReturn on invested capital | — | +15.3% |
| ROCEReturn on capital employed | — | +6.2% |
| Piotroski ScoreFundamental quality 0–9 | 4 | 6 |
| Debt / EquityFinancial leverage | 17.93x | — |
| Net DebtTotal debt minus cash | $29.9B | -$1.3B |
| Cash & Equiv.Liquid assets | $931M | $1.3B |
| Total DebtShort + long-term debt | $30.8B | $0 |
| Interest CoverageEBIT ÷ Interest expense | — | 2.60x |
Total Returns (with DRIP)
A $10,000 investment in AGM five years ago would be worth $20,353 today (with dividends reinvested), compared to $9,271 for CGABL. Over the past 12 months, CGABL leads with a +4.0% total return vs AGM's -21.7%. The 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) favors AGM at 7.0% vs CGABL's 4.6% — a key indicator of consistent wealth creation.
| Metric | AGMFederal Agricultu… | CGABLThe Carlyle Group… |
|---|---|---|
| YTD ReturnYear-to-date | -10.6% | +2.9% |
| 1-Year ReturnPast 12 months | -21.7% | +4.0% |
| 3-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +22.4% | +14.4% |
| 5-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +103.5% | -7.3% |
| 10-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +491.0% | -7.3% |
| CAGR (3Y)Annualised 3-year return | +7.0% | +4.6% |
Risk & Volatility
CGABL is the less volatile stock with a 0.20 beta — it tends to amplify market swings less than AGM's 0.67 beta. A beta below 1.0 means the stock typically moves less than the S&P 500. CGABL currently trades 93.6% from its 52-week high vs AGM's 74.8% drawdown — a narrower gap to the peak suggests stronger recent price momentum.
| Metric | AGMFederal Agricultu… | CGABLThe Carlyle Group… |
|---|---|---|
| Beta (5Y)Sensitivity to S&P 500 | 0.67x | 0.20x |
| 52-Week HighHighest price in past year | $210.78 | $18.80 |
| 52-Week LowLowest price in past year | $146.69 | $16.43 |
| % of 52W HighCurrent price vs 52-week peak | +74.8% | +93.6% |
| RSI (14)Momentum oscillator 0–100 | 42.9 | 49.8 |
| Avg Volume (50D)Average daily shares traded | 90K | 34K |
Analyst Outlook
For income investors, CGABL offers the higher dividend yield at 7.77% vs AGM's 5.15%.
| Metric | AGMFederal Agricultu… | CGABLThe Carlyle Group… |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst RatingConsensus buy/hold/sell | Buy | — |
| Price TargetConsensus 12-month target | $233.00 | — |
| # AnalystsCovering analysts | 5 | — |
| Dividend YieldAnnual dividend ÷ price | +5.1% | +7.8% |
| Dividend StreakConsecutive years of raises | 14 | 0 |
| Dividend / ShareAnnual DPS | $8.12 | $1.37 |
| Buyback YieldShare repurchases ÷ mkt cap | +0.9% | +8.8% |
Historical Charts
Charts are rendered on first load. Hover for details.
Chart 1Total Return — 5 Years (Rebased to 100)
| Stock | Jun 21 | Feb 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Agricultura… (AGM) | 100 | 165.93 | +65.9% |
| The Carlyle Group I… (CGABL) | 102.09 | 69.85 | -31.6% |
Federal Agricultura… (AGM) returned +104% over 5 years vs The Carlyle Group I… (CGABL)'s -7%. A $10,000 investment in AGM 5 years ago would be worth $20,353 today (including dividends reinvested).
Chart 2Revenue Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Agricultura… (AGM) | $332M | $1.6B | +385.1% |
| The Carlyle Group I… (CGABL) | $2.3B | $5.4B | +138.6% |
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation's revenue grew from $332M (2016) to $1.6B (2025) — a 19.2% CAGR.
Chart 3Net Margin Trend — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Agricultura… (AGM) | 23.3% | 11.3% | -51.4% |
| The Carlyle Group I… (CGABL) | 0.7% | 18.8% | +2695.7% |
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation's net margin went from 23% (2016) to 11% (2025).
Chart 4P/E Ratio History — 9 Years
| Stock | 2017 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Agricultura… (AGM) | 11.9 | 10.6 | -10.9% |
| The Carlyle Group I… (CGABL) | 3 | 6.4 | +113.3% |
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation has traded in a 7x–12x P/E range over 9 years; current trailing P/E is ~9x. The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 has traded in a 3x–6x P/E range over 3 years; current trailing P/E is ~6x.
Chart 5EPS Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Agricultura… (AGM) | 5.97 | 16.63 | +178.6% |
| The Carlyle Group I… (CGABL) | 0.05 | 2.77 | +5484.7% |
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation's EPS grew from $5.97 (2016) to $16.63 (2025) — a 12% CAGR.
Chart 6Free Cash Flow — 5 Years
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation generated $80M FCF in 2025 (-82% vs 2021). The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 generated $1B FCF in 2024 (-42% vs 2021).
AGM vs CGABL: Frequently Asked Questions
8 questions · data-driven answers · updated daily
01Is AGM or CGABL a better buy right now?
The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 (CGABL) offers the better valuation at 6.4x trailing P/E, making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) a "Buy" — based on 5 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.
02Which has the better valuation — AGM or CGABL?
On trailing P/E, The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 (CGABL) is the cheapest at 6.4x versus Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation at 9.5x.
03Which is the better long-term investment — AGM or CGABL?
Over the past 5 years, Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) delivered a total return of +103.5%, compared to -7.3% for The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 (CGABL). A $10,000 investment in AGM five years ago would be worth approximately $20K today (assuming dividends reinvested). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: AGM returned +491.0% versus CGABL's -7.3%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.
04Which is safer — AGM or CGABL?
By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 (CGABL) is the lower-risk stock at 0.20β versus Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation's 0.67β — meaning AGM is approximately 230% more volatile than CGABL relative to the S&P 500.
05Which has better profit margins — AGM or CGABL?
The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 (CGABL) is the more profitable company, earning 18.8% net margin versus 11.3% for Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation — meaning it keeps 18.8% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: CGABL leads at 25.2% versus 0.0% for AGM. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — CGABL leads at 50.1%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.
06Which pays a better dividend — AGM or CGABL?
All stocks in this comparison pay dividends. The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 (CGABL) offers the highest yield at 7.8%, versus 5.1% for Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM).
07Is AGM or CGABL better for a retirement portfolio?
For long-horizon retirement investors, The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 (CGABL) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding (low volatility (β 0.20), 7.8% yield). Both have compounded well over 10 years (CGABL: -7.3%, AGM: +491.0%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.
08What are the main differences between AGM and CGABL?
Both stocks operate in the Financial Services sector, making this a peer-level intra-sector comparison — the same macro tailwinds and headwinds will affect both. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.
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