Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM)
Valuation Overview•Is Federal Agricultural Mortgage Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a peer premium multiple, but this multiple is justified by a strong intrinsic cash flow value.
Fragile underlying quality score of 35/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
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Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong dividend yield, though free cash flow coverage appears tight.
AGM demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (9.8% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 14.2%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $450.3M | +9.0% | +9.8% | +14.6% | +16.6% | |
| EBITDA | $0.00 | — | +4.1% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $58.9M | +0.1% | +5.2% | — | +11.7% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $4.56 | +1.1% | +6.2% | +15.0% | +14.8% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $40.4M | -86.8% | -53.8% | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 21.8% | 25.5% | 34.5% | 36.2% |
| Operating Margin | 14.2% | 17.7% | 24.3% | 26.0% |
| Net Margin | 15.7% | 14.2% | 19.3% | 19.7% |
| FCF Margin | 22.1% | 23.3% | 54.9% | 39.4% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26Latest | $4.87 | $5.40 | +10.9% | ||
| Q2'26 | $4.52 | $4.74 | +4.9% | ||
| Q1'26 | $4.50 | $3.66 | -18.7% | ||
| Q4'25 | $4.43 | $4.52 | +2.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $4.29 | $4.32 | +0.7% | ||
| Q2'25 | $4.00 | $4.19 | +4.8% | ||
| Q1'25 | $4.17 | $3.97 | -4.8% | ||
| Q4'24 | $4.11 | $4.10 | -0.2% |
Total return is +34.4% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +19.4%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +24.5% | +11.8% | — |
| 1Y | +34.4% | +19.4% | +3.8% |
| 3YCAGR | +15.3% | -7.3% | +11.6% |
| 5YCAGR | +16.2% | +3.3% | +22.5% |
| 10YCAGR | +20.1% | +6.3% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM) valuation, health, and returns.
Federal Agricultural Mortgage is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +16.5% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $250.27)
Federal Agricultural Mortgage has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $250.27 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $89.79 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $233.00 (implying +8.5% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Federal Agricultural Mortgage displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 35/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 0.6%.
Federal Agricultural Mortgage pays a 3.8% dividend yield, covered by a 43% payout ratio with 14 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Federal Agricultural Mortgage's current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +9.0% 1Y revenue growth and +1.1% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +9.8%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 5 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 58% of recent quarters with a 2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +8.5% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Federal Agricultural Mortgage include: -24.7% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.55x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.