Comprehensive Stock Comparison
Compare Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) vs Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Stock
Analyze side-by-side fundamentals, valuation, growth, and profitability to decide which stock is the better buy.
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Quick Verdict
| Category | Winner | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | UPST | 54.2% revenue growth vs AGM's -0.8% |
| Value | AGM | Lower P/E (8.4x vs 12.8x), PEG 0.56 vs 0.89 |
| Quality / Margins | AGM | 11.3% net margin vs UPST's 5.1% |
| Stability / Safety | AGM | Beta 0.67 vs UPST's 2.55 |
| Dividends | AGM | 5.1% yield; 14-year raise streak; UPST pays no meaningful dividend |
| Momentum (1Y) | AGM | -21.7% vs UPST's -59.2% |
| Efficiency (ROA) | UPST | 1.1% ROA vs AGM's 0.5% |
Who Each Stock Is For
Income & stability
Growth exposure
Long-term compounding (10Y)
Sleep-well-at-night portfolio
Valuation efficiency (growth/$)
Defensive / Recession hedge
Business Model
What each company does and how it makes money
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (Farmer Mac) is a government-sponsored enterprise that provides a secondary market for agricultural and rural infrastructure loans in the United States. It makes money primarily through guarantee fees on loan-backed securities (about 60% of revenue) and net interest income from its retained loan portfolio (about 40%). Its key advantage is its government-sponsored status, which provides lower funding costs and regulatory advantages in the agricultural lending market.
Upstart operates an AI-powered lending platform that connects borrowers with bank partners using machine learning to assess credit risk. It generates revenue primarily from referral fees paid by banks for approved loans — roughly 80% of revenue — and smaller amounts from servicing fees and interest income. Its key advantage is its proprietary AI underwriting model, which analyzes thousands of data points beyond traditional credit scores to identify creditworthy borrowers that conventional models might miss.
Revenue Breakdown by Segment
How each company's revenue is distributed across its business units
Segment breakdown not available.
Financial Metrics Comparison
Side-by-side fundamentals across 2 stocks. BestLagging
Financial Scorecard
AGM leads in 4 of 6 categories (Financial Metrics, Valuation Metrics). UPST leads in 1 (Profitability & Efficiency).
Financial Metrics (TTM)
AGM is the larger business by revenue, generating $1.6B annually — 1.5x UPST's $1.0B. AGM is the more profitable business, keeping 11.3% of every revenue dollar as net income compared to UPST's 5.1%.
| Metric | AGMFederal Agricultu… | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… |
|---|---|---|
| RevenueTrailing 12 months | $1.6B | $1.0B |
| EBITDAEarnings before interest/tax | $0 | $46M |
| Net IncomeAfter-tax profit | $182M | $32M |
| Free Cash FlowCash after capex | $80M | -$374M |
| Gross MarginGross profit ÷ Revenue | — | — |
| Operating MarginEBIT ÷ Revenue | — | +4.1% |
| Net MarginNet income ÷ Revenue | +11.3% | +5.1% |
| FCF MarginFCF ÷ Revenue | +5.0% | -14.2% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | — | — |
| EPS Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | -20.1% | +4.1% |
Valuation Metrics
At 9.5x trailing earnings, AGM trades at a 84% valuation discount to UPST's 60.5x P/E. Adjusting for growth (PEG ratio), AGM offers better value at 0.63x vs UPST's 4.21x — a lower PEG means you pay less per unit of expected earnings growth.
| Metric | AGMFederal Agricultu… | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… |
|---|---|---|
| Market CapShares × price | $1.5B | $2.7B |
| Enterprise ValueMkt cap + debt − cash | $31.4B | $2.0B |
| Trailing P/EPrice ÷ TTM EPS | 9.48x | 60.51x |
| Forward P/EPrice ÷ next-FY EPS est. | 8.36x | 12.81x |
| PEG RatioP/E ÷ EPS growth rate | 0.63x | 4.21x |
| EV / EBITDAEnterprise value multiple | — | 47.31x |
| Price / SalesMarket cap ÷ Revenue | 0.91x | 2.56x |
| Price / BookPrice ÷ Book value/share | 1.01x | 3.66x |
| Price / FCFMarket cap ÷ FCF | 18.36x | — |
Profitability & Efficiency
AGM delivers a 10.6% return on equity — every $100 of shareholder capital generates $11 in annual profit, vs $4 for UPST. On the Piotroski fundamental quality scale (0–9), AGM scores 4/9 vs UPST's 3/9, reflecting mixed financial health.
| Metric | AGMFederal Agricultu… | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… |
|---|---|---|
| ROE (TTM)Return on equity | +10.6% | +4.3% |
| ROA (TTM)Return on assets | +0.5% | +1.1% |
| ROICReturn on invested capital | — | +2.2% |
| ROCEReturn on capital employed | — | +1.6% |
| Piotroski ScoreFundamental quality 0–9 | 4 | 3 |
| Debt / EquityFinancial leverage | 17.93x | — |
| Net DebtTotal debt minus cash | $29.9B | -$652M |
| Cash & Equiv.Liquid assets | $931M | $652M |
| Total DebtShort + long-term debt | $30.8B | $0 |
| Interest CoverageEBIT ÷ Interest expense | — | 0.85x |
Total Returns (with DRIP)
A $10,000 investment in AGM five years ago would be worth $20,353 today (with dividends reinvested), compared to $4,086 for UPST. Over the past 12 months, AGM leads with a -21.7% total return vs UPST's -59.2%. The 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) favors UPST at 13.7% vs AGM's 7.0% — a key indicator of consistent wealth creation.
| Metric | AGMFederal Agricultu… | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… |
|---|---|---|
| YTD ReturnYear-to-date | -10.6% | -40.6% |
| 1-Year ReturnPast 12 months | -21.7% | -59.2% |
| 3-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +22.4% | +47.1% |
| 5-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +103.5% | -59.1% |
| 10-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +491.0% | -7.6% |
| CAGR (3Y)Annualised 3-year return | +7.0% | +13.7% |
Risk & Volatility
AGM is the less volatile stock with a 0.67 beta — it tends to amplify market swings less than UPST's 2.55 beta. A beta below 1.0 means the stock typically moves less than the S&P 500. AGM currently trades 74.8% from its 52-week high vs UPST's 31.2% drawdown — a narrower gap to the peak suggests stronger recent price momentum.
| Metric | AGMFederal Agricultu… | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… |
|---|---|---|
| Beta (5Y)Sensitivity to S&P 500 | 0.67x | 2.55x |
| 52-Week HighHighest price in past year | $210.78 | $87.30 |
| 52-Week LowLowest price in past year | $146.69 | $26.80 |
| % of 52W HighCurrent price vs 52-week peak | +74.8% | +31.2% |
| RSI (14)Momentum oscillator 0–100 | 42.9 | 33.9 |
| Avg Volume (50D)Average daily shares traded | 90K | 4.2M |
Analyst Outlook
Wall Street rates AGM as "Buy" and UPST as "Hold". Consensus price targets imply 65.9% upside for UPST (target: $45) vs 47.8% for AGM (target: $233). AGM is the only dividend payer here at 5.15% yield — a key consideration for income-focused portfolios.
| Metric | AGMFederal Agricultu… | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst RatingConsensus buy/hold/sell | Buy | Hold |
| Price TargetConsensus 12-month target | $233.00 | $45.17 |
| # AnalystsCovering analysts | 5 | 22 |
| Dividend YieldAnnual dividend ÷ price | +5.1% | — |
| Dividend StreakConsecutive years of raises | 14 | — |
| Dividend / ShareAnnual DPS | $8.12 | — |
| Buyback YieldShare repurchases ÷ mkt cap | +0.9% | 0.0% |
Historical Charts
Charts are rendered on first load. Hover for details.
Chart 1Total Return — 5 Years (Rebased to 100)
| Stock | Jan 21 | Feb 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Agricultura… (AGM) | 100 | 227.72 | +127.7% |
| Upstart Holdings, I… (UPST) | 149.27 | 134.68 | -9.8% |
Federal Agricultura… (AGM) returned +104% over 5 years vs Upstart Holdings, I… (UPST)'s -59%. A $10,000 investment in AGM 5 years ago would be worth $20,353 today (including dividends reinvested).
Chart 2Revenue Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Agricultura… (AGM) | $332M | $1.6B | +385.1% |
| Upstart Holdings, I… (UPST) | $96M | $1.0B | +992.1% |
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation's revenue grew from $332M (2016) to $1.6B (2025) — a 19.2% CAGR.
Chart 3Net Margin Trend — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Agricultura… (AGM) | 23.3% | 11.3% | -51.4% |
| Upstart Holdings, I… (UPST) | -12.9% | 5.1% | +139.8% |
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation's net margin went from 23% (2016) to 11% (2025).
Chart 4P/E Ratio History — 9 Years
| Stock | 2017 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Agricultura… (AGM) | 11.9 | 10.6 | -10.9% |
| Upstart Holdings, I… (UPST) | 177.2 | 97.2 | -45.1% |
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation has traded in a 7x–12x P/E range over 9 years; current trailing P/E is ~9x. Upstart Holdings, Inc. has traded in a 97x–177x P/E range over 3 years; current trailing P/E is ~61x.
Chart 5EPS Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Agricultura… (AGM) | 5.97 | 16.63 | +178.6% |
| Upstart Holdings, I… (UPST) | -0.87 | 0.45 | +151.7% |
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation's EPS grew from $5.97 (2016) to $16.63 (2025) — a 12% CAGR.
Chart 6Free Cash Flow — 5 Years
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation generated $80M FCF in 2025 (-82% vs 2021). Upstart Holdings, Inc. generated $-148M FCF in 2025 (-196% vs 2021).
AGM vs UPST: Frequently Asked Questions
9 questions · data-driven answers · updated daily
01Is AGM or UPST a better buy right now?
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) offers the better valuation at 9.5x trailing P/E (8.4x forward), making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) a "Buy" — based on 5 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.
02Which has the better valuation — AGM or UPST?
On trailing P/E, Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) is the cheapest at 9.5x versus Upstart Holdings, Inc. at 60.5x. On forward P/E, Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation is actually cheaper at 8.4x. The PEG ratio (P/E divided by earnings growth rate) is the most growth-adjusted single valuation metric: Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation wins at 0.56x versus Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s 0.89x — a PEG below 1.0 traditionally signals the market is underpricing earnings growth.
03Which is the better long-term investment — AGM or UPST?
Over the past 5 years, Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) delivered a total return of +103.5%, compared to -59.1% for Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST). A $10,000 investment in AGM five years ago would be worth approximately $20K today (assuming dividends reinvested). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: AGM returned +491.0% versus UPST's -7.6%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.
04Which is safer — AGM or UPST?
By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) is the lower-risk stock at 0.67β versus Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s 2.55β — meaning UPST is approximately 280% more volatile than AGM relative to the S&P 500.
05Which has better profit margins — AGM or UPST?
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) is the more profitable company, earning 11.3% net margin versus 5.1% for Upstart Holdings, Inc. — meaning it keeps 11.3% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: UPST leads at 4.1% versus 0.0% for AGM. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — AGM leads at 0.0%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.
06Is AGM or UPST more undervalued right now?
The PEG ratio (forward P/E divided by expected earnings growth rate) is the most precise measure of undervaluation relative to growth potential. By this metric, Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) is the more undervalued stock at a PEG of 0.56x versus Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s 0.89x. A PEG below 1.0 is traditionally considered the threshold for growth-adjusted undervaluation. On forward earnings alone, Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) trades at 8.4x forward P/E versus 12.8x for Upstart Holdings, Inc. — 4.4x cheaper on a one-year earnings basis. Analyst consensus price targets imply the most upside for UPST: 65.9% to $45.17.
07Which pays a better dividend — AGM or UPST?
In this comparison, AGM (5.1% yield) pays a dividend. UPST does not pay a meaningful dividend and should not be held primarily for income.
08Is AGM or UPST better for a retirement portfolio?
For long-horizon retirement investors, Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding (low volatility (β 0.67), 5.1% yield, +491.0% 10Y return). Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) carries a higher beta of 2.55 — meaning larger drawdowns in market downturns, which matters significantly when you cannot wait years for a recovery. Both have compounded well over 10 years (AGM: +491.0%, UPST: -7.6%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.
09What are the main differences between AGM and UPST?
Both stocks operate in the Financial Services sector, making this a peer-level intra-sector comparison — the same macro tailwinds and headwinds will affect both. In terms of investment character: AGM is a small-cap deep-value stock; UPST is a small-cap quality compounder stock. AGM pays a dividend while UPST does not, making them suitable for different income and tax situations. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.
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