Comprehensive Stock Comparison
Compare Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) vs Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE) Stock
Analyze side-by-side fundamentals, valuation, growth, and profitability to decide which stock is the better buy.
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Quick Verdict
| Category | Winner | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | BTE | 24.4% revenue growth vs GFR's 17.0% |
| Value | BTE | Lower P/E (35.8x vs 433.6x) |
| Quality / Margins | GFR | 27.7% net margin vs BTE's 5.6% |
| Stability / Safety | GFR | Beta 0.94 vs BTE's 1.63, lower leverage |
| Dividends | BTE | 1.7% yield; 1-year raise streak; GFR pays no meaningful dividend |
| Momentum (1Y) | BTE | +72.8% vs GFR's -0.2% |
| Efficiency (ROA) | GFR | 15.7% ROA vs BTE's 2.8%, ROIC 16.5% vs 9.1% |
Who Each Stock Is For
Income & stability
Growth exposure
Long-term compounding (10Y)
Sleep-well-at-night portfolio
Defensive / Recession hedge
Business Model
What each company does and how it makes money
Greenfire Resources is an oil sands producer that develops and operates thermal oil recovery projects in Alberta's Athabasca region using steam-assisted gravity drainage technology. It generates revenue primarily from bitumen sales — the heavy crude oil extracted from its SAGD operations — with production volumes directly tied to oil prices. The company's competitive advantage lies in its ownership of Tier-1 oil sands assets with established infrastructure and its expertise in efficient SAGD extraction methods.
Baytex Energy is an oil and gas exploration and production company focused on developing crude oil and natural gas reserves in Western Canada and the Eagle Ford shale in Texas. It generates revenue primarily from crude oil sales — about 80% of total revenue — with the remainder from natural gas and natural gas liquids. The company's competitive advantage lies in its concentrated, high-quality asset base in low-decline basins — particularly its Eagle Ford position — which provides stable production and attractive economics.
Financial Metrics Comparison
Side-by-side fundamentals across 2 stocks. BestLagging
Financial Scorecard
BTE leads in 2 of 6 categories (Valuation Metrics, Total Returns). GFR leads in 1 (Profitability & Efficiency). 2 tied.
Financial Metrics (TTM)
BTE is the larger business by revenue, generating $3.8B annually — 5.2x GFR's $731M. GFR is the more profitable business, keeping 27.7% of every revenue dollar as net income compared to BTE's 5.6%. On growth, BTE holds the edge at +9.0% YoY revenue growth, suggesting stronger near-term business momentum.
| Metric | GFRGreenfire Resourc… | BTEBaytex Energy Cor… |
|---|---|---|
| RevenueTrailing 12 months | $731M | $3.8B |
| EBITDAEarnings before interest/tax | $181M | $1.9B |
| Net IncomeAfter-tax profit | $202M | $215M |
| Free Cash FlowCash after capex | $22M | $420M |
| Gross MarginGross profit ÷ Revenue | +45.9% | +27.0% |
| Operating MarginEBIT ÷ Revenue | +12.7% | +16.1% |
| Net MarginNet income ÷ Revenue | +27.7% | +5.6% |
| FCF MarginFCF ÷ Revenue | +3.1% | +11.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | -34.1% | +9.0% |
| EPS Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | +60.5% | -82.6% |
Valuation Metrics
At 4.8x trailing earnings, GFR trades at a 73% valuation discount to BTE's 17.5x P/E. On an enterprise value basis, BTE's 2.9x EV/EBITDA is more attractive than GFR's 4.0x.
| Metric | GFRGreenfire Resourc… | BTEBaytex Energy Cor… |
|---|---|---|
| Market CapShares × price | $745M | $3.0B |
| Enterprise ValueMkt cap + debt − cash | $943M | $4.6B |
| Trailing P/EPrice ÷ TTM EPS | 4.78x | 17.52x |
| Forward P/EPrice ÷ next-FY EPS est. | 433.58x | 35.75x |
| PEG RatioP/E ÷ EPS growth rate | — | — |
| EV / EBITDAEnterprise value multiple | 4.00x | 2.92x |
| Price / SalesMarket cap ÷ Revenue | 1.29x | 0.96x |
| Price / BookPrice ÷ Book value/share | 0.71x | 1.01x |
| Price / FCFMarket cap ÷ FCF | 17.84x | 6.80x |
Profitability & Efficiency
GFR delivers a 22.8% return on equity — every $100 of shareholder capital generates $23 in annual profit, vs $5 for BTE. GFR carries lower financial leverage with a 0.41x debt-to-equity ratio, signaling a more conservative balance sheet compared to BTE's 0.55x.
| Metric | GFRGreenfire Resourc… | BTEBaytex Energy Cor… |
|---|---|---|
| ROE (TTM)Return on equity | +22.8% | +5.1% |
| ROA (TTM)Return on assets | +15.7% | +2.8% |
| ROICReturn on invested capital | +16.5% | +9.1% |
| ROCEReturn on capital employed | +23.1% | +10.9% |
| Piotroski ScoreFundamental quality 0–9 | 6 | 6 |
| Debt / EquityFinancial leverage | 0.41x | 0.55x |
| Net DebtTotal debt minus cash | $271M | $2.3B |
| Cash & Equiv.Liquid assets | $67M | $17M |
| Total DebtShort + long-term debt | $338M | $2.3B |
| Interest CoverageEBIT ÷ Interest expense | 4.50x | 2.81x |
Total Returns (with DRIP)
A $10,000 investment in BTE five years ago would be worth $39,639 today (with dividends reinvested), compared to $5,505 for GFR. Over the past 12 months, BTE leads with a +72.8% total return vs GFR's -0.2%. The 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) favors BTE at 1.1% vs GFR's -18.0% — a key indicator of consistent wealth creation.
| Metric | GFRGreenfire Resourc… | BTEBaytex Energy Cor… |
|---|---|---|
| YTD ReturnYear-to-date | +23.5% | +16.4% |
| 1-Year ReturnPast 12 months | -0.2% | +72.8% |
| 3-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -44.9% | +3.5% |
| 5-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -44.9% | +296.4% |
| 10-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -44.9% | +75.6% |
| CAGR (3Y)Annualised 3-year return | -18.0% | +1.1% |
Risk & Volatility
GFR is the less volatile stock with a 0.94 beta — it tends to amplify market swings less than BTE's 1.63 beta. A beta below 1.0 means the stock typically moves less than the S&P 500. BTE currently trades 99.6% from its 52-week high vs GFR's 96.1% drawdown — a narrower gap to the peak suggests stronger recent price momentum.
| Metric | GFRGreenfire Resourc… | BTEBaytex Energy Cor… |
|---|---|---|
| Beta (5Y)Sensitivity to S&P 500 | 0.94x | 1.63x |
| 52-Week HighHighest price in past year | $6.18 | $3.85 |
| 52-Week LowLowest price in past year | $3.81 | $1.36 |
| % of 52W HighCurrent price vs 52-week peak | +96.1% | +99.6% |
| RSI (14)Momentum oscillator 0–100 | 54.5 | 60.5 |
| Avg Volume (50D)Average daily shares traded | 99K | 15.2M |
Analyst Outlook
Wall Street rates GFR as "Buy" and BTE as "Buy". BTE is the only dividend payer here at 1.71% yield — a key consideration for income-focused portfolios.
| Metric | GFRGreenfire Resourc… | BTEBaytex Energy Cor… |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst RatingConsensus buy/hold/sell | Buy | Buy |
| Price TargetConsensus 12-month target | — | — |
| # AnalystsCovering analysts | 1 | 16 |
| Dividend YieldAnnual dividend ÷ price | — | +1.7% |
| Dividend StreakConsecutive years of raises | 1 | 1 |
| Dividend / ShareAnnual DPS | — | $0.09 |
| Buyback YieldShare repurchases ÷ mkt cap | 0.0% | +5.5% |
Historical Charts
Charts are rendered on first load. Hover for details.
Chart 1Total Return — 5 Years (Rebased to 100)
| Stock | Sep 23 | Feb 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greenfire Resources… (GFR) | 100 | 49.49 | -50.5% |
| Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE) | 100 | 82 | -18.0% |
Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE) returned +296% over 5 years vs Greenfire Resources… (GFR)'s -45%. A $10,000 investment in BTE 5 years ago would be worth $39,639 today (including dividends reinvested).
Chart 2Revenue Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2015 | 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greenfire Resources… (GFR) | $0.00 | $791M | — |
| Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE) | $1.1B | $4.2B | +272.5% |
Baytex Energy Corp.'s revenue grew from $1.1B (2015) to $4.2B (2024) — a 15.7% CAGR.
Chart 3Net Margin Trend — 10 Years
| Stock | 2015 | 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greenfire Resources… (GFR) | 13.2% | 15.3% | +16.4% |
| Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE) | -100.3% | 5.6% | +105.6% |
Baytex Energy Corp.'s net margin went from -100% (2015) to 6% (2024).
Chart 4P/E Ratio History — 4 Years
| Stock | 2017 | 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE) | 8.1 | 8.6 | +6.2% |
Baytex Energy Corp. has traded in a 1x–9x P/E range over 4 years; current trailing P/E is ~18x.
Chart 5EPS Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2015 | 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greenfire Resources… (GFR) | -0.01 | 1.7 | +17808.3% |
| Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE) | -5.72 | 0.3 | +105.2% |
Baytex Energy Corp.'s EPS grew from $-5.72 (2015) to $0.30 (2024).
Chart 6Free Cash Flow — 5 Years
Greenfire Resources Ltd. generated $57M FCF in 2024 (+109% vs 2021). Baytex Energy Corp. generated $594M FCF in 2024 (+50% vs 2021).
GFR vs BTE: Frequently Asked Questions
9 questions · data-driven answers · updated daily
01Is GFR or BTE a better buy right now?
Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) offers the better valuation at 4.8x trailing P/E (433.6x forward), making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) a "Buy" — based on 1 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.
02Which has the better valuation — GFR or BTE?
On trailing P/E, Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) is the cheapest at 4.8x versus Baytex Energy Corp. at 17.5x. On forward P/E, Baytex Energy Corp. is actually cheaper at 35.8x — notably different from the trailing picture, reflecting expected earnings growth.
03Which is the better long-term investment — GFR or BTE?
Over the past 5 years, Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE) delivered a total return of +296.4%, compared to -44.9% for Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR). A $10,000 investment in BTE five years ago would be worth approximately $40K today (assuming dividends reinvested). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: BTE returned +75.6% versus GFR's -44.9%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.
04Which is safer — GFR or BTE?
By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) is the lower-risk stock at 0.94β versus Baytex Energy Corp.'s 1.63β — meaning BTE is approximately 73% more volatile than GFR relative to the S&P 500. On balance sheet safety, Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) carries a lower debt/equity ratio of 41% versus 55% for Baytex Energy Corp. — giving it more financial flexibility in a downturn.
05Which has better profit margins — GFR or BTE?
Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) is the more profitable company, earning 15.3% net margin versus 5.6% for Baytex Energy Corp. — meaning it keeps 15.3% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: GFR leads at 28.7% versus 18.3% for BTE. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — GFR leads at 32.6%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.
06Is GFR or BTE more undervalued right now?
On forward earnings alone, Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE) trades at 35.8x forward P/E versus 433.6x for Greenfire Resources Ltd. — 397.8x cheaper on a one-year earnings basis.
07Which pays a better dividend — GFR or BTE?
In this comparison, BTE (1.7% yield) pays a dividend. GFR does not pay a meaningful dividend and should not be held primarily for income.
08Is GFR or BTE better for a retirement portfolio?
For long-horizon retirement investors, Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding (low volatility (β 0.94)). Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE) carries a higher beta of 1.63 — meaning larger drawdowns in market downturns, which matters significantly when you cannot wait years for a recovery. Both have compounded well over 10 years (GFR: -44.9%, BTE: +75.6%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.
09What are the main differences between GFR and BTE?
Both stocks operate in the Energy sector, making this a peer-level intra-sector comparison — the same macro tailwinds and headwinds will affect both. BTE pays a dividend while GFR does not, making them suitable for different income and tax situations. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.
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