Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE)
Valuation Overview•Is Baytex Energy Corp. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Priced at a premium to peer multiples and intrinsic cash flows, demanding strong execution to justify current levels.
Fragile underlying quality score of 45/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant growth concerns.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
BTE struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($834M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-13.7% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 16.1% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $402.4M | -8.2% | -13.7% | +12.7% | +5.3% | |
| EBITDA | $175.7M | — | -22.1% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$67.5M | -355.2% | — | — | +6.1% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.09 | -360.0% | — | — | +18.1% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$29.6M | -58.5% | -27.6% | +28.4% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | -15.4% | 25.2% | 31.5% | 13.6% |
| Operating Margin | 16.1% | 20.4% | 27.3% | 8.1% |
| Net Margin | -139.9% | -11.6% | 21.5% | -29.3% |
| FCF Margin | 36.4% | 20.8% | 23.2% | 13.7% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.01 | $-0.08 | -900.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.02 | $-0.31 | -1650.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.02 | $-0.31 | -1650.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.01 | $0.03 | +200.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.04 | $0.14 | +256.7% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.04 | $0.15 | +263.6% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.10 | $0.06 | -40.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.12 | $-0.04 | -133.3% |
Total return is +93.5% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +68.6%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +21.6% | +12.3% | — |
| 1Y | +93.5% | +68.6% | +3.1% |
| 3YCAGR | +9.1% | -9.5% | +6.1% |
| 5YCAGR | +18.9% | +7.7% | +11.1% |
| 10YCAGR | -3.5% | -16.3% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE) valuation, health, and returns.
Baytex Energy Corp. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -71.6% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $1.13)
Baytex Energy Corp. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $1.13 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $2.63. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Baytex Energy Corp. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 45/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 0.6 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 4.2%.
Baytex Energy Corp. pays a 1.6% dividend yield, covered by a 0% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.7% buyback yield.
Baytex Energy Corp.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved -8.2% 1Y revenue growth and -360.0% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -13.7%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 16 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 42% of recent quarters with a -3-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for Baytex Energy Corp. include: -25.2% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.09x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.