Comprehensive Stock Comparison
Compare Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) vs Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) Stock
Analyze side-by-side fundamentals, valuation, growth, and profitability to decide which stock is the better buy.
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Quick Verdict
| Category | Winner | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | UPST | 54.2% revenue growth vs COF's 9.0% |
| Value | UPST | PEG 0.89 vs 10.08 |
| Quality / Margins | COF | 8.8% net margin vs UPST's 5.1% |
| Stability / Safety | COF | Beta 1.53 vs UPST's 2.55 |
| Dividends | COF | 1.2% yield; 2-year raise streak; UPST pays no meaningful dividend |
| Momentum (1Y) | COF | -1.1% vs UPST's -59.2% |
| Efficiency (ROA) | UPST | 1.1% ROA vs COF's 0.2%, ROIC 2.2% vs 4.1% |
Who Each Stock Is For
Income & stability
Growth exposure
Long-term compounding (10Y)
Sleep-well-at-night portfolio
Valuation efficiency (growth/$)
Defensive / Recession hedge
Business Model
What each company does and how it makes money
Upstart operates an AI-powered lending platform that connects borrowers with bank partners using machine learning to assess credit risk. It generates revenue primarily from referral fees paid by banks for approved loans — roughly 80% of revenue — and smaller amounts from servicing fees and interest income. Its key advantage is its proprietary AI underwriting model, which analyzes thousands of data points beyond traditional credit scores to identify creditworthy borrowers that conventional models might miss.
Capital One is a diversified financial services company that operates primarily as a credit card issuer and consumer bank. It generates revenue through three main segments: credit card interest and fees (its largest segment), consumer banking services, and commercial banking operations. The company's key advantage lies in its sophisticated data analytics and technology platform—which enables targeted marketing and risk assessment—coupled with its direct banking model that reduces physical branch costs.
Revenue Breakdown by Segment
How each company's revenue is distributed across its business units
Financial Metrics Comparison
Side-by-side fundamentals across 2 stocks. BestLagging
Financial Scorecard
COF leads in 4 of 6 categories (Financial Metrics, Valuation Metrics). UPST leads in 1 (Profitability & Efficiency).
Financial Metrics (TTM)
COF is the larger business by revenue, generating $53.9B annually — 51.7x UPST's $1.0B. Profitability is closely matched — net margins range from 8.8% (COF) to 5.1% (UPST).
| Metric | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… | COFCapital One Finan… |
|---|---|---|
| RevenueTrailing 12 months | $1.0B | $53.9B |
| EBITDAEarnings before interest/tax | $46M | $6.1B |
| Net IncomeAfter-tax profit | $32M | $1.4B |
| Free Cash FlowCash after capex | -$374M | $20.8B |
| Gross MarginGross profit ÷ Revenue | — | +50.8% |
| Operating MarginEBIT ÷ Revenue | +4.1% | +11.0% |
| Net MarginNet income ÷ Revenue | +5.1% | +8.8% |
| FCF MarginFCF ÷ Revenue | -14.2% | +31.4% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | — | — |
| EPS Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | +4.1% | +9.5% |
Valuation Metrics
At 16.9x trailing earnings, COF trades at a 72% valuation discount to UPST's 60.5x P/E. Adjusting for growth (PEG ratio), UPST offers better value at 4.21x vs COF's 10.08x — a lower PEG means you pay less per unit of expected earnings growth.
| Metric | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… | COFCapital One Finan… |
|---|---|---|
| Market CapShares × price | $2.7B | $124.4B |
| Enterprise ValueMkt cap + debt − cash | $2.0B | $126.7B |
| Trailing P/EPrice ÷ TTM EPS | 60.51x | 16.88x |
| Forward P/EPrice ÷ next-FY EPS est. | 12.81x | 9.67x |
| PEG RatioP/E ÷ EPS growth rate | 4.21x | 10.08x |
| EV / EBITDAEnterprise value multiple | 47.31x | 13.85x |
| Price / SalesMarket cap ÷ Revenue | 2.56x | 2.31x |
| Price / BookPrice ÷ Book value/share | 3.66x | 1.23x |
| Price / FCFMarket cap ÷ FCF | — | 7.34x |
Profitability & Efficiency
UPST delivers a 4.3% return on equity — every $100 of shareholder capital generates $4 in annual profit, vs $1 for COF. On the Piotroski fundamental quality scale (0–9), COF scores 5/9 vs UPST's 3/9, reflecting solid financial health.
| Metric | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… | COFCapital One Finan… |
|---|---|---|
| ROE (TTM)Return on equity | +4.3% | +1.2% |
| ROA (TTM)Return on assets | +1.1% | +0.2% |
| ROICReturn on invested capital | +2.2% | +4.1% |
| ROCEReturn on capital employed | +1.6% | +4.6% |
| Piotroski ScoreFundamental quality 0–9 | 3 | 5 |
| Debt / EquityFinancial leverage | — | 0.75x |
| Net DebtTotal debt minus cash | -$652M | $2.3B |
| Cash & Equiv.Liquid assets | $652M | $43.2B |
| Total DebtShort + long-term debt | $0 | $45.6B |
| Interest CoverageEBIT ÷ Interest expense | 0.85x | 0.11x |
Total Returns (with DRIP)
A $10,000 investment in COF five years ago would be worth $16,819 today (with dividends reinvested), compared to $4,086 for UPST. Over the past 12 months, COF leads with a -1.1% total return vs UPST's -59.2%. The 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) favors COF at 23.1% vs UPST's 13.7% — a key indicator of consistent wealth creation.
| Metric | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… | COFCapital One Finan… |
|---|---|---|
| YTD ReturnYear-to-date | -40.6% | -20.8% |
| 1-Year ReturnPast 12 months | -59.2% | -1.1% |
| 3-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +47.1% | +86.3% |
| 5-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -59.1% | +68.2% |
| 10-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -7.6% | +228.4% |
| CAGR (3Y)Annualised 3-year return | +13.7% | +23.1% |
Risk & Volatility
COF is the less volatile stock with a 1.53 beta — it tends to amplify market swings less than UPST's 2.55 beta. A beta below 1.0 means the stock typically moves less than the S&P 500. COF currently trades 75.4% from its 52-week high vs UPST's 31.2% drawdown — a narrower gap to the peak suggests stronger recent price momentum.
| Metric | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… | COFCapital One Finan… |
|---|---|---|
| Beta (5Y)Sensitivity to S&P 500 | 2.55x | 1.53x |
| 52-Week HighHighest price in past year | $87.30 | $259.64 |
| 52-Week LowLowest price in past year | $26.80 | $143.22 |
| % of 52W HighCurrent price vs 52-week peak | +31.2% | +75.4% |
| RSI (14)Momentum oscillator 0–100 | 33.9 | 45.1 |
| Avg Volume (50D)Average daily shares traded | 4.2M | 4.5M |
Analyst Outlook
Wall Street rates UPST as "Hold" and COF as "Buy". Consensus price targets imply 65.9% upside for UPST (target: $45) vs 39.9% for COF (target: $274). COF is the only dividend payer here at 1.24% yield — a key consideration for income-focused portfolios.
| Metric | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… | COFCapital One Finan… |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst RatingConsensus buy/hold/sell | Hold | Buy |
| Price TargetConsensus 12-month target | $45.17 | $273.62 |
| # AnalystsCovering analysts | 22 | 56 |
| Dividend YieldAnnual dividend ÷ price | — | +1.2% |
| Dividend StreakConsecutive years of raises | — | 2 |
| Dividend / ShareAnnual DPS | — | $2.43 |
| Buyback YieldShare repurchases ÷ mkt cap | 0.0% | +0.6% |
Historical Charts
Charts are rendered on first load. Hover for details.
Chart 1Total Return — 5 Years (Rebased to 100)
| Stock | Dec 20 | Feb 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upstart Holdings, I… (UPST) | 100 | 134.68 | +34.7% |
| Capital One Financi… (COF) | 100 | 228.62 | +128.6% |
Capital One Financi… (COF) returned +68% over 5 years vs Upstart Holdings, I… (UPST)'s -59%. A $10,000 investment in COF 5 years ago would be worth $16,819 today (including dividends reinvested).
Chart 2Revenue Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upstart Holdings, I… (UPST) | $96M | $1.0B | +992.1% |
| Capital One Financi… (COF) | $27.5B | $53.9B | +96.0% |
Chart 3Net Margin Trend — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upstart Holdings, I… (UPST) | -12.9% | 5.1% | +139.8% |
| Capital One Financi… (COF) | 13.6% | 8.8% | -35.4% |
Chart 4P/E Ratio History — 9 Years
| Stock | 2017 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upstart Holdings, I… (UPST) | 177.2 | 97.2 | -45.1% |
| Capital One Financi… (COF) | 28.5 | 15.4 | -46.0% |
Upstart Holdings, Inc. has traded in a 97x–177x P/E range over 3 years; current trailing P/E is ~61x. Capital One Financial Corporation has traded in a 5x–29x P/E range over 8 years; current trailing P/E is ~17x.
Chart 5EPS Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upstart Holdings, I… (UPST) | -0.87 | 0.45 | +151.7% |
| Capital One Financi… (COF) | 6.89 | 11.59 | +68.2% |
Chart 6Free Cash Flow — 5 Years
Upstart Holdings, Inc. generated $-148M FCF in 2025 (-196% vs 2021). Capital One Financial Corporation generated $17B FCF in 2024 (+46% vs 2021).
UPST vs COF: Frequently Asked Questions
9 questions · data-driven answers · updated daily
01Is UPST or COF a better buy right now?
Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) offers the better valuation at 16.9x trailing P/E (9.7x forward), making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) a "Buy" — based on 56 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.
02Which has the better valuation — UPST or COF?
On trailing P/E, Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) is the cheapest at 16.9x versus Upstart Holdings, Inc. at 60.5x. On forward P/E, Capital One Financial Corporation is actually cheaper at 9.7x. The PEG ratio (P/E divided by earnings growth rate) is the most growth-adjusted single valuation metric: Upstart Holdings, Inc. wins at 0.89x versus Capital One Financial Corporation's 10.08x — a PEG below 1.0 traditionally signals the market is underpricing earnings growth.
03Which is the better long-term investment — UPST or COF?
Over the past 5 years, Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) delivered a total return of +68.2%, compared to -59.1% for Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST). A $10,000 investment in COF five years ago would be worth approximately $17K today (assuming dividends reinvested). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: COF returned +228.4% versus UPST's -7.6%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.
04Which is safer — UPST or COF?
By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) is the lower-risk stock at 1.53β versus Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s 2.55β — meaning UPST is approximately 67% more volatile than COF relative to the S&P 500.
05Which has better profit margins — UPST or COF?
Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) is the more profitable company, earning 8.8% net margin versus 5.1% for Upstart Holdings, Inc. — meaning it keeps 8.8% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: COF leads at 11.0% versus 4.1% for UPST. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — COF leads at 50.8%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.
06Is UPST or COF more undervalued right now?
The PEG ratio (forward P/E divided by expected earnings growth rate) is the most precise measure of undervaluation relative to growth potential. By this metric, Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) is the more undervalued stock at a PEG of 0.89x versus Capital One Financial Corporation's 10.08x. A PEG below 1.0 is traditionally considered the threshold for growth-adjusted undervaluation. On forward earnings alone, Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) trades at 9.7x forward P/E versus 12.8x for Upstart Holdings, Inc. — 3.1x cheaper on a one-year earnings basis. Analyst consensus price targets imply the most upside for UPST: 65.9% to $45.17.
07Which pays a better dividend — UPST or COF?
In this comparison, COF (1.2% yield) pays a dividend. UPST does not pay a meaningful dividend and should not be held primarily for income.
08Is UPST or COF better for a retirement portfolio?
For long-horizon retirement investors, Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding (1.2% yield, +228.4% 10Y return). Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) carries a higher beta of 2.55 — meaning larger drawdowns in market downturns, which matters significantly when you cannot wait years for a recovery. Both have compounded well over 10 years (COF: +228.4%, UPST: -7.6%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.
09What are the main differences between UPST and COF?
Both stocks operate in the Financial Services sector, making this a peer-level intra-sector comparison — the same macro tailwinds and headwinds will affect both. In terms of investment character: UPST is a small-cap quality compounder stock; COF is a mid-cap deep-value stock. COF pays a dividend while UPST does not, making them suitable for different income and tax situations. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.
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