Comprehensive Stock Comparison
Compare Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) vs NerdWallet, Inc. (NRDS) Stock
Analyze side-by-side fundamentals, valuation, growth, and profitability to decide which stock is the better buy.
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Quick Verdict
| Category | Winner | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | UPST | 54.2% revenue growth vs NRDS's 21.7% |
| Value | NRDS | Lower P/E (11.6x vs 12.8x), PEG 0.23 vs 0.89 |
| Quality / Margins | NRDS | 5.8% net margin vs UPST's 5.1% |
| Stability / Safety | NRDS | Beta 1.29 vs UPST's 2.55 |
| Dividends | Tie | Neither pays a meaningful dividend |
| Momentum (1Y) | NRDS | +6.4% vs UPST's -59.2% |
| Efficiency (ROA) | NRDS | 10.6% ROA vs UPST's 1.1%, ROIC 13.1% vs 2.2% |
Who Each Stock Is For
Income & stability
Growth exposure
Long-term compounding (10Y)
Sleep-well-at-night portfolio
Valuation efficiency (growth/$)
Defensive / Recession hedge
Business Model
What each company does and how it makes money
Upstart operates an AI-powered lending platform that connects borrowers with bank partners using machine learning to assess credit risk. It generates revenue primarily from referral fees paid by banks for approved loans — roughly 80% of revenue — and smaller amounts from servicing fees and interest income. Its key advantage is its proprietary AI underwriting model, which analyzes thousands of data points beyond traditional credit scores to identify creditworthy borrowers that conventional models might miss.
NerdWallet operates a digital personal finance platform that connects consumers with financial product providers through educational content and product marketplaces. It generates revenue primarily through lead generation fees — earning commissions when users apply for financial products like credit cards, loans, and insurance through its platform. The company's moat lies in its trusted brand reputation and extensive educational content library that attracts a large, engaged audience seeking financial guidance.
Revenue Breakdown by Segment
How each company's revenue is distributed across its business units
Financial Metrics Comparison
Side-by-side fundamentals across 2 stocks. BestLagging
Financial Scorecard
NRDS leads in 4 of 6 categories (Financial Metrics, Valuation Metrics). UPST leads in 1 (Total Returns).
Financial Metrics (TTM)
UPST and NRDS operate at a comparable scale, with $1.0B and $837M in trailing revenue. Profitability is closely matched — net margins range from 5.8% (NRDS) to 5.1% (UPST).
| Metric | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… | NRDSNerdWallet, Inc. |
|---|---|---|
| RevenueTrailing 12 months | $1.0B | $837M |
| EBITDAEarnings before interest/tax | $46M | $102M |
| Net IncomeAfter-tax profit | $32M | $49M |
| Free Cash FlowCash after capex | -$374M | $122M |
| Gross MarginGross profit ÷ Revenue | — | +92.4% |
| Operating MarginEBIT ÷ Revenue | +4.1% | +7.8% |
| Net MarginNet income ÷ Revenue | +5.1% | +5.8% |
| FCF MarginFCF ÷ Revenue | -14.2% | +15.6% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | — | — |
| EPS Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | +4.1% | -62.7% |
Valuation Metrics
At 17.0x trailing earnings, NRDS trades at a 72% valuation discount to UPST's 60.5x P/E. Adjusting for growth (PEG ratio), NRDS offers better value at 0.33x vs UPST's 4.21x — a lower PEG means you pay less per unit of expected earnings growth.
| Metric | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… | NRDSNerdWallet, Inc. |
|---|---|---|
| Market CapShares × price | $2.7B | $344M |
| Enterprise ValueMkt cap + debt − cash | $2.0B | $246M |
| Trailing P/EPrice ÷ TTM EPS | 60.51x | 16.95x |
| Forward P/EPrice ÷ next-FY EPS est. | 12.81x | 11.61x |
| PEG RatioP/E ÷ EPS growth rate | 4.21x | 0.33x |
| EV / EBITDAEnterprise value multiple | 47.31x | 3.77x |
| Price / SalesMarket cap ÷ Revenue | 2.56x | 0.41x |
| Price / BookPrice ÷ Book value/share | 3.66x | 2.20x |
| Price / FCFMarket cap ÷ FCF | — | 2.64x |
Profitability & Efficiency
NRDS delivers a 13.0% return on equity — every $100 of shareholder capital generates $13 in annual profit, vs $4 for UPST. On the Piotroski fundamental quality scale (0–9), NRDS scores 8/9 vs UPST's 3/9, reflecting strong financial health.
| Metric | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… | NRDSNerdWallet, Inc. |
|---|---|---|
| ROE (TTM)Return on equity | +4.3% | +13.0% |
| ROA (TTM)Return on assets | +1.1% | +10.6% |
| ROICReturn on invested capital | +2.2% | +13.1% |
| ROCEReturn on capital employed | +1.6% | +17.0% |
| Piotroski ScoreFundamental quality 0–9 | 3 | 8 |
| Debt / EquityFinancial leverage | — | — |
| Net DebtTotal debt minus cash | -$652M | -$98M |
| Cash & Equiv.Liquid assets | $652M | $98M |
| Total DebtShort + long-term debt | $0 | $0 |
| Interest CoverageEBIT ÷ Interest expense | 0.85x | 122.00x |
Total Returns (with DRIP)
A $10,000 investment in UPST five years ago would be worth $4,086 today (with dividends reinvested), compared to $3,834 for NRDS. Over the past 12 months, NRDS leads with a +6.4% total return vs UPST's -59.2%. The 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) favors UPST at 13.7% vs NRDS's -19.3% — a key indicator of consistent wealth creation.
| Metric | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… | NRDSNerdWallet, Inc. |
|---|---|---|
| YTD ReturnYear-to-date | -40.6% | -16.1% |
| 1-Year ReturnPast 12 months | -59.2% | +6.4% |
| 3-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +47.1% | -47.4% |
| 5-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -59.1% | -61.7% |
| 10-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -7.6% | -61.7% |
| CAGR (3Y)Annualised 3-year return | +13.7% | -19.3% |
Risk & Volatility
NRDS is the less volatile stock with a 1.29 beta — it tends to amplify market swings less than UPST's 2.55 beta. A beta below 1.0 means the stock typically moves less than the S&P 500. NRDS currently trades 66.8% from its 52-week high vs UPST's 31.2% drawdown — a narrower gap to the peak suggests stronger recent price momentum.
| Metric | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… | NRDSNerdWallet, Inc. |
|---|---|---|
| Beta (5Y)Sensitivity to S&P 500 | 2.55x | 1.29x |
| 52-Week HighHighest price in past year | $87.30 | $16.24 |
| 52-Week LowLowest price in past year | $26.80 | $7.55 |
| % of 52W HighCurrent price vs 52-week peak | +31.2% | +66.8% |
| RSI (14)Momentum oscillator 0–100 | 33.9 | 51.5 |
| Avg Volume (50D)Average daily shares traded | 4.2M | 695K |
Analyst Outlook
Wall Street rates UPST as "Hold" and NRDS as "Buy". Consensus price targets imply 65.9% upside for UPST (target: $45) vs 47.5% for NRDS (target: $16).
| Metric | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… | NRDSNerdWallet, Inc. |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst RatingConsensus buy/hold/sell | Hold | Buy |
| Price TargetConsensus 12-month target | $45.17 | $16.00 |
| # AnalystsCovering analysts | 22 | 6 |
| Dividend YieldAnnual dividend ÷ price | — | — |
| Dividend StreakConsecutive years of raises | — | — |
| Dividend / ShareAnnual DPS | — | — |
| Buyback YieldShare repurchases ÷ mkt cap | 0.0% | +0.6% |
Historical Charts
Charts are rendered on first load. Hover for details.
Chart 1Total Return — 5 Years (Rebased to 100)
| Stock | Dec 21 | Feb 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upstart Holdings, I… (UPST) | 100 | 22.09 | -77.9% |
| NerdWallet, Inc. (NRDS) | 62.61 | 43.64 | -30.3% |
Upstart Holdings, I… (UPST) returned -59% over 5 years vs NerdWallet, Inc. (NRDS)'s -62%.
Chart 2Revenue Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2018 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upstart Holdings, I… (UPST) | $96M | $1.0B | +992.1% |
| NerdWallet, Inc. (NRDS) | $228M | $837M | +266.4% |
Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s revenue grew from $96M (2018) to $1.0B (2025) — a 40.7% CAGR.
Chart 3Net Margin Trend — 10 Years
| Stock | 2018 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upstart Holdings, I… (UPST) | -12.9% | 5.1% | +139.8% |
| NerdWallet, Inc. (NRDS) | 10.6% | 5.8% | -45.1% |
Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s net margin went from -13% (2018) to 5% (2025).
Chart 4P/E Ratio History — 3 Years
| Stock | 2020 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upstart Holdings, I… (UPST) | 177.2 | 97.2 | -45.1% |
Upstart Holdings, Inc. has traded in a 97x–177x P/E range over 3 years; current trailing P/E is ~61x.
Chart 5EPS Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2018 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upstart Holdings, I… (UPST) | -0.87 | 0.45 | +151.7% |
| NerdWallet, Inc. (NRDS) | 0.37 | 0.64 | +73.0% |
Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s EPS grew from $-0.87 (2018) to $0.45 (2025).
Chart 6Free Cash Flow — 5 Years
Upstart Holdings, Inc. generated $-148M FCF in 2025 (-196% vs 2021). NerdWallet, Inc. generated $130M FCF in 2025 (+925% vs 2021).
UPST vs NRDS: Frequently Asked Questions
9 questions · data-driven answers · updated daily
01Is UPST or NRDS a better buy right now?
NerdWallet, Inc. (NRDS) offers the better valuation at 17.0x trailing P/E (11.6x forward), making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate NerdWallet, Inc. (NRDS) a "Buy" — based on 6 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.
02Which has the better valuation — UPST or NRDS?
On trailing P/E, NerdWallet, Inc. (NRDS) is the cheapest at 17.0x versus Upstart Holdings, Inc. at 60.5x. On forward P/E, NerdWallet, Inc. is actually cheaper at 11.6x. The PEG ratio (P/E divided by earnings growth rate) is the most growth-adjusted single valuation metric: NerdWallet, Inc. wins at 0.23x versus Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s 0.89x — a PEG below 1.0 traditionally signals the market is underpricing earnings growth.
03Which is the better long-term investment — UPST or NRDS?
Over the past 5 years, Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) delivered a total return of -59.1%, compared to -61.7% for NerdWallet, Inc. (NRDS). A $10,000 investment in UPST five years ago would be worth approximately $4K today (assuming dividends reinvested). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: UPST returned -7.6% versus NRDS's -61.7%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.
04Which is safer — UPST or NRDS?
By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), NerdWallet, Inc. (NRDS) is the lower-risk stock at 1.29β versus Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s 2.55β — meaning UPST is approximately 97% more volatile than NRDS relative to the S&P 500.
05Which has better profit margins — UPST or NRDS?
NerdWallet, Inc. (NRDS) is the more profitable company, earning 5.8% net margin versus 5.1% for Upstart Holdings, Inc. — meaning it keeps 5.8% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: NRDS leads at 7.8% versus 4.1% for UPST. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — NRDS leads at 92.4%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.
06Is UPST or NRDS more undervalued right now?
The PEG ratio (forward P/E divided by expected earnings growth rate) is the most precise measure of undervaluation relative to growth potential. By this metric, NerdWallet, Inc. (NRDS) is the more undervalued stock at a PEG of 0.23x versus Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s 0.89x. A PEG below 1.0 is traditionally considered the threshold for growth-adjusted undervaluation. On forward earnings alone, NerdWallet, Inc. (NRDS) trades at 11.6x forward P/E versus 12.8x for Upstart Holdings, Inc. — 1.2x cheaper on a one-year earnings basis. Analyst consensus price targets imply the most upside for UPST: 65.9% to $45.17.
07Which pays a better dividend — UPST or NRDS?
None of the stocks in this comparison currently pay a material dividend. All are effectively zero-yield and should be held for capital appreciation rather than income.
08Is UPST or NRDS better for a retirement portfolio?
For long-horizon retirement investors, NerdWallet, Inc. (NRDS) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding (low volatility (β 1.29)). Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) carries a higher beta of 2.55 — meaning larger drawdowns in market downturns, which matters significantly when you cannot wait years for a recovery. Both have compounded well over 10 years (NRDS: -61.7%, UPST: -7.6%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.
09What are the main differences between UPST and NRDS?
Both stocks operate in the Financial Services sector, making this a peer-level intra-sector comparison — the same macro tailwinds and headwinds will affect both. In terms of investment character: UPST is a small-cap quality compounder stock; NRDS is a small-cap deep-value stock. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.
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