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WMGWarner Music Group Corp.
$27.16$14.2B
Overview & Tools
OverviewChart Terminal ↗Visualize
Valuation & Forecasts
Valuation ModelsEstimatesDCF Model
Price & Analyst Data
Analyst TargetsPrice History
Financial Statements
Income StatementBalance SheetCash FlowRatios & Margins
Performance
P/E HistoryRevenue HistoryEarnings HistoryDividend HistoryTotal Return
Discovery & Screens
Live BreakoutsStock ScreenerOwnership
WMG logo

Warner Music Group Corp.

WMG
NASDAQ · Entertainment
$27.16
At close - Sep 23, 4:00 PM EDT - USD
Market Cap$14.17B
P/E38.8x
52W High$35.42
Volume1.19M
OverviewTerminalAnalysisFinancialsValuationEarningsBreakoutsOwnership
VCP Research Verdict2026Q3

Margin Expansion Masks Leverage and Cash Volatility

Warner Music Group is demonstrating accelerating revenue growth (10.4% in 2026Q3) and significant operating margin expansion (16.4% vs. 10.0% a year ago), driven by disciplined SG&A control. However, the balance sheet remains highly leveraged with a D/E of 4.5...

GrowthAccelerating
ProfitabilityModerate
ValuationAttractive
TechnicalsWeak
Explore valuation models
MARKET ACTION

WMG price & volume

Price trend, volume and key moving averages

Launch Terminal
Loading chart...
Decision Checklist4 Core Signals

What matters now

The signals most likely to change the investment case.

01

Earnings momentum

6/12 Beats

EPS beat 6 of last 12 quarters

02

Valuation risk

+23% Peers

P/E is 23% above peer median

03

Market leadership

RS 41 · Lag

Laggard (Underperforming 59% of market)

04

Weak Trend

Below 200DMA

Price < 200DMA

Next CatalystConfirmed earnings · Nov 19
01

Build the investment case

Start with the evidence for owning the stock and the risks that can break the thesis.

EXECUTIVE THESIS

The Investment Case

Full Analysis
Fundamental Trajectory

Revenue growth accelerated to 10.4% in 2026Q3, with operating margin expanding to 16.4% from 10.0% a year earlier, though net income remains volatile (swinging from -$16M to $204M).

Analyst Consensus+44.5% target
Buy(24 analysts)
16 Buy7 Hold1 Sell

The Bull Case

Upside Catalysts

Strategic partnerships and cost discipline

Warner Music Group is leveraging strategic partnerships and maintaining cost discipline to capitalize on high-margin opportunities, positioning itself for outsized returns by 2026.

Strong Q2 financial performance

The company reported higher Q2 sales and net income compared to the previous year, alongside margin expansion, indicating robust financial health.

Streaming growth above consensus

The bull case assumes continued high CAGR in streaming revenue, exceeding current consensus estimates, which could drive significant upside.

The Bear Case

Key Downside Risks

Market performance

Price History →

Trailing total returns as of 9/24/2026, which may include dividends or other distributions. Benchmark is S&P 500 (^GSPC).

YTD Return
WMG-8.87%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+12.39%
1-Year Return
WMG-16.15%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+15.77%
3-Year Return
WMG-5.20%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+75.26%
5-Year Return
WMG-30.72%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+69.03%
02

Test the fundamentals

Check whether operating performance supports the current valuation.

VALUATION & INTRINSIC VALUE

Valuation Scenarios

Valuation Analysis
Trailing P/EMedian
38.8x
Forward P/EExpansion
18.2x
EV/EBITDA20th %ile
15.8x
FCF YieldCash Flow
3.8%

Valuation vs 5-Year History

Multiple Range
Metric
Current
5Y Median
Historical Range
Percentile
P/E
38.8x
38.3x
60th· Fair
EV/EBITDA
15.8x
17.7x
20th· Low
Price/FCF
26.3x
32.8x
20th· Low
Current Multiple
5Y Median (50th %ile)

Intrinsic Value Scenarios

DCF Projection
Bear$15.81-41.8%
Base (Fair)$36.70+31.0%
Bull$62.06+128.5%
$15.81 Bear$36.70 Base$62.06 Bull
Current Market Price: $27.16
Trades at a 26.0% discount to Base DCF ($36.70)
Open DCF & Valuation Models →Chart Terminal ↗

Growth & profitability

Annual revenue & EPS trend
Revenue
$6.71B+4.4% YoY
Net income
$365M-16.1% YoY
Free cash flow
$539M-15.5% YoY
Operating margin
10.3%-2.5 pts YoY
ROIC (TTM)11.4%
Avg ROIC 5Y-
ROE (TTM)51%
Piotroski Score3 / 9
Financial Statements →
03

Monitor what changed

Recent results and news deserve attention only when they alter the forward view.

OPERATING RESULTS

Recent Earnings

Earnings History
EPS Beat Rate6/12 (50%)
Revenue Beat Rate10/12 (83%)
QuarterEPS (Act vs Est)Revenue (Act vs Est)
Q3 2026Latest
Aug 5, 2026
$0.38+10.6%
vs $0.34
$1.9B+3.0%
vs $1.8B
Q2 2026
May 7, 2026
$0.34+27.2%
vs $0.27
$1.7B+7.4%
vs $1.6B
Q1 2026
Feb 5, 2026
$0.33-17.5%
vs $0.40
$1.8B+3.8%
vs $1.8B
Q4 2025
Nov 20, 2025
$0.21-40.0%
vs $0.35
$1.9B+5.4%
vs $1.8B
Historical baseline: 12 quarters analyzedGAAP / Adjusted
MARKET COVERAGE

Latest News

5 Stories
Reuters·Sep 9, 2026
Suno releases new AI music models in partnership with Warner Music, BMG

AI music startup Suno on Wednesday launched a suite of AI models in partnership with record companies Warner Music Group and BMG to allow users to generate ​new music inspired by licensed music of participating artists.

Reuters·Aug 31, 2026
Sony, Warner Music sue Anthropic over songs used in AI training

The music publishing branches of Sony Music and Warner Music have sued Anthropic in California federal court for allegedly misusing their copyrighted ​song compositions to train its Claude AI models.

Seeking Alpha·Aug 14, 2026
Dividend Champion, Contender, And Challenger Highlights: Week August 16

A weekly summary of dividend activity for Dividend Champions, Contenders, and Challengers. Companies which changed their dividends. Companies with upcoming ex-dividend dates.

Defense World·Aug 12, 2026
Assenagon Asset Management S.A. Buys Shares of 266,620 Warner Music Group Corp. $WMG

Assenagon Asset Management S.A. purchased a new position in shares of Warner Music Group Corp. (NASDAQ: WMG) during the second quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The institutional investor purchased 266,620 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $7,217,000. Assenagon Asset Management S.A. owned 0.05%

Filtered for Warner Music Group Corp.More Headlines
04

Compare before deciding

Benchmark WMG against direct peers instead of judging its metrics in isolation.

Peers Comparison

Key metrics vs top competitors for Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG)

Full Screener →
CompanyPriceMarket CapP/E RatioRev Growth (1Y)Net MarginROEDiv Yield
WMG logoWMGWarner Music Group Corp.Current
$27.16$14.17B38.804.37%5.44%50.98%2.72%
SONY logoSONYSony Group Corporation
$23.20$137.28B-63.872.12%-1.86%-2.82%—
LYV logoLYVLive Nation Entertainment, Inc.
$169.03$39.34B-704.298.83%0.51%9%—
MMYT logoMMYTMakeMyTrip Limited
$46.79$4.4B99.556.71%3.23%——
SPOT logoSPOTSpotify Technology S.A.
$510.40$104.93B42.669.65%18.43%41.05%—
AAPL logoAAPLApple Inc.
$337.02$4.95T45.186.43%27.62%137.18%—

Compare WMG vs Peers

Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) vs competitors — business, growth, and fundamentals comparison against the closest industry rivals.

Closest Rival

vs SONY

Most directly comparable listed peer for WMG.

Scale Benchmark

vs AAPL

Larger-name benchmark to compare WMG against a more recognizable public peer.

Peer Set

Compare Top 5

vs SONY, LYV, MMYT, SPOT

05

Keep researching

Verify the primary filings, follow material updates, and answer the remaining questions.

WMG SEC Filings & Documents

Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) SEC filings — annual & quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q)

8-K Announcements

6
Material company update

Aug 5, 2026·SEC

Material company update

Aug 3, 2026·SEC

Material company update

Jul 31, 2026·SEC

10-K Annual Reports

3
FY 2025

Nov 20, 2025·SEC

FY 2024

Nov 21, 2024·SEC

FY 2023

Nov 21, 2023·SEC

10-Q Quarterly Reports

6
FY 2026

Aug 5, 2026·SEC

FY 2026

May 7, 2026·SEC

FY 2026

Feb 9, 2026·SEC

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WMG Frequently Asked Questions

Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) stock FAQ — growth, dividends, profitability & financials explained

Growth & Financials
What is Warner Music Group Corp.'s revenue?

Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) reported $7.30B in revenue for fiscal year 2025. This represents a 122% increase from $3.29B in 2002.

How fast is Warner Music Group Corp. growing?

Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) grew revenue by 4.4% over the past year. Growth has been modest.

Is WMG profitable?

Yes, Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) is profitable, generating $672.0M in net income for fiscal year 2025 (5.4% net margin).

Dividend & Returns
Does WMG pay dividends?

Yes, Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) pays a dividend with a yield of 2.72%. This makes it attractive for income-focused investors.

What is WMG's return on equity?

Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) has a return on equity (ROE) of 51.0%. This is excellent, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.

What is Warner Music Group Corp.'s free cash flow?

Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) generated $1.41B in free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Positive FCF indicates the company can fund dividends, buybacks, or reinvestment.

What if you invested $1,000 in WMG back in 2002?

Total return calculator · dividends reinvested · 24+ years of data

See returns →