Auna S.A. (AUNA) — Estimates & Forecasts
Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
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Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $-85M | $-252M | $111M | $203M | $227M | $205M | $199M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-1.90 | $-5.78 | $1.63 | $2.73 | $2.77 | $2.27 | $2.01 |
| YoY Growth | — | — | — | +83.5% | +11.5% | -9.6% | -2.8% |
| Net Margin | -3.5% | -6.6% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% |
| Metric | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.4B | $5.1B | $6.0B | $7.2B | $8.1B |
| Net Income | $111M | $203M | $227M | $205M | $199M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.63 | $2.73 | $2.77 | $2.27 | $2.01 |
| Free Cash Flow | $578M | $138M | $144M | $148M | $144M |
Treat point estimates cautiously; use wider scenario ranges and position sizing discipline.
Auna S.A.'s projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $2.73. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 53/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for Auna S.A.: Bear case $-8, Base case $30, and Bull case $-39. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
Auna S.A.'s projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is 19.9%, reaching approximately $5.1B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 53/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Currently expanding margins support higher forecast reliability. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
Auna S.A.'s forward operating margin is estimated at 15.1% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "expanding". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($-8) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is below Wall Street consensus with a 20.1% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 15% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.