MODEL VERDICT
Auna S.A. (AUNA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 30 analyst estimates | $59.31 | +1135.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 29 industry peers | $126.59 | +2537.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $34.68 | +622.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 29 industry peers | $142.06 | +2859.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 25 industry peers | $139.49 | +2806.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 30 industry peers | $148.63 | +2996.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 37 industry peers | $36.97 | +670.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 37 industry peers | $51.14 | +965.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 22 industry peers | $36.20 | +654.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 29 industry peers | $143.63 | +2892.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $100.72 | +1998.3% | 100% | 62 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $10 | $13 | $17 | $20 | $23 |
| Conservative (5%) | $10 | $14 | $17 | $21 | $24 |
| Base Case (-0.7%) | $10 | $13 | $16 | $19 | $23 |
| Bull Case (-1%) | $10 | $13 | $16 | $19 | $23 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates AUNA's fair value at $100.72 vs the current price of $4.80, implying +1998.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $100.72 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $70.83 (P10) to $118.59 (P90), with a median of $94.70.
AUNA's current P/E of 9.9x compares to the industry median of 21.3x (20 peers in the group). This represents a -53.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover AUNA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $7.63 (range: $6.90 — $9.00), implying +59.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AUNA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.