BP p.l.c. (BP) — Estimates & Forecasts
Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
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Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $15.2B | $381M | $55M | $3.1B | $3.0B | $1.1B | $1.2B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $5.15 | $0.14 | $0.02 | $1.25 | $1.26 | $0.46 | $0.56 |
| YoY Growth | — | -97.5% | -85.5% | +5591.0% | -4.0% | -65.0% | +15.1% |
| Net Margin | 7.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| Metric | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $189.8B | $183.7B | $188.1B | $187.9B | $184.5B |
| Net Income | $55M | $3.1B | $3.0B | $1.1B | $1.2B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.02 | $1.25 | $1.26 | $0.46 | $0.56 |
| Free Cash Flow | $11.3B | $958M | $1.6B | $2.1B | $2.4B |
Treat point estimates cautiously; use wider scenario ranges and position sizing discipline.
BP p.l.c.'s projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $1.25. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 45/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for BP p.l.c.: Bear case $-3, Base case $39, and Bull case $199. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
BP p.l.c.'s projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is -2.9%, reaching approximately $183.7B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 45/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Contracting margins add uncertainty to forward projections. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
BP p.l.c.'s forward operating margin is estimated at 10.7% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "contracting". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($-3) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is below Wall Street consensus with a 52.4% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 43% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.