MODEL VERDICT
BP p.l.c. (BP) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $38.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $38.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $37.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $36.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $34.29 | Below threshold | +14.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 16 analyst estimates | $33.52 | -13.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 16 industry peers | $76.61 | +97.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 15 industry peers | $0.31 | -99.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 15 industry peers | $60.15 | +54.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 16 industry peers | $39.09 | +0.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 16 industry peers | $47.70 | +22.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 16 industry peers | $85.26 | +119.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 16 industry peers | $70.91 | +82.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 16 industry peers | $0.31 | -99.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 16 industry peers | $63.62 | +63.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $39.03 | +0.4% | 100% | 77 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 1601× | 1753× | 1905× (Current) | 2057× | 2209× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $34 | $37 | $40 | $44 | $47 |
| Conservative (7%) | $35 | $38 | $41 | $45 | $48 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $36 | $39 | $43 | $46 | $50 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $37 | $41 | $44 | $48 | $51 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 392.87 | 31.98 | 6.87 | 1702.45 | 736.95 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.73 | 9.24 | 5.08 | 15.89 | 3.77 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.59 | 4.19 | 2.23 | 8.51 | 2.11 |
| P/FCF | 7.37 | 6.99 | 3.83 | 12.40 | 2.86 |
| P/FFO | 5.44 | 5.01 | 3.36 | 9.34 | 2.11 |
| P/TBV | 1.42 | 1.47 | 0.97 | 1.70 | 0.26 |
| P/AFFO | 20.48 | 19.74 | 6.20 | 48.56 | 16.98 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.13 | 1.23 | 0.81 | 1.33 | 0.19 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.56 | 0.50 | 0.44 | 0.81 | 0.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates BP's fair value at $39.03 vs the current price of $38.86, implying +0.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $39.03 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $41.62 (P10) to $55.94 (P90), with a median of $48.63.
BP's current P/E of 1904.9x compares to the industry median of 15.3x (15 peers in the group). This represents a +12352.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 392.9x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
43 analysts cover BP with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $39.58 (range: $31.00 — $51.00), implying +1.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (25), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BP trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (392.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (4.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 278220.0% to approximately $1120. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.