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Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) (CART)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$41.91
→
Intrinsic$74.42
+78%
$52.23$74.42$116.52
Market implies 6% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests CART could have 78% upside at 23% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $42, the market prices in only 6% growth — below historical 23%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $52 → Bull $117. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 19% | 21% | 23% | 25% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $90 | $97 | $104 | $112 |
| 10% | $65 | $69 | $74 | $80 |
| 12% | $50 | $54 | $58 | $62 |
| 14% | $42 | $44 | $47 | $50 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($117) offers 178% upside at 27% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (6%) ≤ historical CAGR (23%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($52) with 18% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 23% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$763.67M
Year 2$936.11M
Year 3$1.15B
Year 4$1.41B
Year 5$1.72B
Terminal$25.37B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate22.6%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$623.00MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.