MODEL VERDICT
Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) (CART) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $37.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $36.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $36.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $34.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $41.17 | Below threshold | -14.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 43 analyst estimates | $50.70 | +35.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 40 industry peers | $34.24 | -8.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $46.28 | +23.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 38 industry peers | $50.00 | +33.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 40 industry peers | $34.29 | -8.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 39 industry peers | $57.82 | +54.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 51 industry peers | $25.13 | -33.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 51 industry peers | $15.97 | -57.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 36 industry peers | $46.28 | +23.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 39 industry peers | $51.98 | +38.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $46.74 | +24.6% | 100% | 65 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $33 | $36 | $39 | $43 | $46 |
| Conservative (7%) | $34 | $37 | $40 | $44 | $47 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $35 | $38 | $42 | $45 | $49 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $36 | $39 | $43 | $47 | $50 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates CART's fair value at $46.74 vs the current price of $37.51, implying +24.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $46.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $35.75 (P10) to $52.18 (P90), with a median of $43.85.
CART's current P/E of 23.7x compares to the industry median of 29.3x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -18.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Discount.
26 analysts cover CART with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $47.54 (range: $40.00 — $60.00), implying +26.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CART.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.