Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$110.43
→
Intrinsic$128.37
+16%
$80.19$128.37$219.78
Market implies 22% growth for 5 years
CCEP shows 16% potential upside using 25% growth — reasonable if fundamentals hold.
At $110, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (22%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $80 → Bull $220. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $163 | $178 | $194 | $211 |
| 10% | $107 | $118 | $128 | $140 |
| 12% | $76 | $84 | $92 | $101 |
| 14% | $57 | $63 | $69 | $76 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($220) offers 99% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
- 14% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (22%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($80) implies 27% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$2.43B
Year 2$3.04B
Year 3$3.80B
Year 4$4.76B
Year 5$5.94B
Terminal$87.47B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.95BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.