MODEL VERDICT
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC (CCEP) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $110.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $105.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $99.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $96.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $88.74 | Below threshold | +8.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $103.33 | -6.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 13 industry peers | $213.97 | +93.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $109.53 | -0.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $109.63 | -0.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 13 industry peers | $76.94 | -30.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $106.47 | -3.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 11 industry peers | $278.02 | +151.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $200.51 | +81.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 14 industry peers | $198.04 | +79.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $109.17 | -1.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $107.18 | -2.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $134.70 | +22.0% | 100% | 90 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $87 | $96 | $105 | $115 | $124 |
| Conservative (20%) | $93 | $103 | $113 | $122 | $132 |
| Base Case (30.3%) | $101 | $112 | $123 | $133 | $144 |
| Bull Case (41%) | $109 | $121 | $133 | $144 | $156 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.13 | 22.18 | 16.81 | 45.72 | 9.65 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.66 | 19.31 | 16.65 | 23.85 | 2.50 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.13 | 14.74 | 12.36 | 20.00 | 2.55 |
| P/FCF | 16.74 | 15.60 | 10.88 | 21.23 | 3.95 |
| P/FFO | 14.91 | 15.00 | 10.90 | 20.58 | 2.90 |
| P/AFFO | 21.82 | 21.24 | 14.72 | 32.65 | 5.49 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.91 | 3.84 | 3.40 | 4.98 | 0.51 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.85 | 1.86 | 1.46 | 2.14 | 0.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CCEP's fair value at $134.70 vs the current price of $110.43, implying +22.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $134.70 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $110.80 (P10) to $148.90 (P90), with a median of $129.69.
CCEP's current P/E of 22.9x compares to the industry median of 26.8x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -14.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.1x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
28 analysts cover CCEP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $113.00 (range: $110.00 — $118.00), implying +2.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (11), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CCEP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1000.0% to approximately $99. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.