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Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC (CCEP) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC (CCEP)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$89.47
→
Intrinsic$90.01
+1%
$54.73$90.01$157.06
Market implies 13% growth for 5 years
CCEP appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $89, the market prices in 13% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (13%).
Range: Bear $55 → Bull $157. Current price implies expectations near the base case.
Discount ↓Growth →9%11%13%15%
8%$112$124$137$150
10%$73$81$90$99
12%$52$58$64$71
14%$38$43$48$53

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($157) offers 76% upside at 16% growth, 9% discount
  • 1% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
  • Market-implied growth (13%) ≤ historical CAGR (13%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($55) implies 39% downside at 11% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$2.57B
Year 2$2.92B
Year 3$3.31B
Year 4$3.75B
Year 5$4.25B
Terminal$62.53B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate13.4%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$2.27BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is CCEP stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟡 FAIRLY VALUED

CCEP trades at $89.47, within 10% of our $90.01 intrinsic value estimate. At 10.0% WACC and 13.4% FCF growth, the market is pricing in assumptions roughly aligned with the 5-year historical CAGR. The valuation range spans $55.72 (bear) to $138.07 (bull).

What is CCEP's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $2.27B, projected at 13.4% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $9.77B net debt and dividing by 0.46B shares: Bear $55.72 | Base $90.01 | Bull $138.07. Current price $89.47 implies +5% to base case.

How is CCEP's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 13.4% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($51.26B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 22.6x.