Exelon Corporation (EXC)
Valuation Overview•Is Exelon Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
Fragile underlying quality score of 35/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside with steady expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
EXC struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (8.3% 3Y CAGR) paired with robust earnings compounding (9.6% EPS 3Y CAGR). The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 21.0% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.2B | +5.3% | +8.3% | -6.0% | -1.9% | |
| EBITDA | $2.6B | — | +9.8% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $919.0M | +12.5% | +8.5% | — | +2.0% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.90 | +11.8% | +9.6% | +6.4% | +0.8% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$634.0M | -48.9% | +0.0% | +9.8% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 24.1% | 36.6% | 38.2% | 33.3% |
| Operating Margin | 21.0% | 19.5% | 18.2% | 14.6% |
| Net Margin | 11.2% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 8.9% |
| FCF Margin | -8.7% | -9.5% | -13.6% | -10.1% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.88 | $0.91 | +2.9% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.55 | $0.59 | +7.9% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.78 | $0.86 | +10.5% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.37 | $0.39 | +6.2% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.88 | $0.92 | +4.9% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.59 | $0.64 | +8.1% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.67 | $0.71 | +6.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.40 | $0.47 | +17.5% |
Total return is +12.0% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -13.0%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +6.2% | -3.1% | — |
| 1Y | +12.0% | -13.0% | +3.9% |
| 3YCAGR | +7.4% | -12.3% | +11.5% |
| 5YCAGR | +10.8% | -2.5% | +23.0% |
| 10YCAGR | +9.0% | -4.8% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Exelon Corporation (EXC) valuation, health, and returns.
Exelon Corporation is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Slightly cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +56.1% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $71.51)
Exelon Corporation has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $71.51 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $53.59 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $48.91 (implying +6.8% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Exelon Corporation displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 35/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 5.1%.
Exelon Corporation pays a 3.5% dividend yield, covered by a 58% payout ratio with 4 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Exelon Corporation's current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +5.3% 1Y revenue growth and +11.8% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +8.3%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 37 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 75% of recent quarters with a 8-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +6.8% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Exelon Corporation include: -13.7% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of -0.15x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.