Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL)
Valuation Overview•Is Xcel Energy Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a peer premium multiple, but this multiple is justified by a strong intrinsic cash flow value.
Fragile underlying quality score of 30/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
XEL struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-1.4% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 19.8% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.0B | +9.1% | -1.4% | +4.9% | +2.9% | |
| EBITDA | $1.5B | — | +5.4% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $556.0M | +4.2% | +5.1% | — | +7.4% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.89 | -0.6% | +2.6% | +4.2% | +5.8% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$1.3B | -152.9% | -113.7% | -22.3% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 18.9% | 37.4% | 37.9% | 39.1% |
| Operating Margin | 19.8% | 18.3% | 17.4% | 18.0% |
| Net Margin | 14.1% | 13.5% | 12.8% | 12.0% |
| FCF Margin | -2.3% | -23.6% | -18.2% | -13.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.91 | $0.91 | +0.3% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.96 | $0.96 | -0.2% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.32 | $1.24 | -6.1% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.65 | $0.75 | +16.3% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.92 | $0.84 | -8.8% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.88 | $0.81 | -7.4% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.26 | $1.25 | -0.8% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.57 | $0.54 | -5.3% |
Total return is +20.3% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -4.7%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +5.2% | -4.1% | — |
| 1Y | +20.3% | -4.7% | +3.5% |
| 3YCAGR | +10.1% | -9.4% | +10.6% |
| 5YCAGR | +5.7% | -7.3% | +15.9% |
| 10YCAGR | +8.4% | -5.2% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL) valuation, health, and returns.
Xcel Energy Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Slightly expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +43.7% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $111.25)
Xcel Energy Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $111.25 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $70.30 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $90.36 (implying +16.7% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Xcel Energy Inc. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 30/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 4.0%.
Xcel Energy Inc. pays a 2.8% dividend yield, covered by a 64% payout ratio with 22 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Xcel Energy Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +9.1% 1Y revenue growth and -0.6% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -1.4%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 27 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 33% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +16.7% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Xcel Energy Inc. include: -11.5% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.08x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.