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Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Meta Platforms, Inc. (META)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$631.09
→
Intrinsic$1,035.57
+64%
$646.18$1,035.57$1,975.48
Market implies 13% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests META could have 64% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $631, the market prices in 13% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (25%).
Range: Bear $646 → Bull $1975. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
6%$1505$1629$1761$1902
8%$888$959$1036$1117
10%$622$671$723$779
12%$474$511$550$591

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($1975) offers 213% upside at 30% growth, 7% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (13%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($646) with 20% growth, 10% discount rate
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$67.59B
Year 2$84.49B
Year 3$105.61B
Year 4$132.01B
Year 5$165.01B
Terminal$3.37T

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate8.1%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$54.07BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is META stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟡 FAIRLY VALUED

META trades at $631.09, within 10% of our $617.96 intrinsic value estimate. At 8.1% WACC and 25.0% FCF growth, the market is pricing in assumptions roughly aligned with the 5-year historical CAGR. The valuation range spans $396.00 (bear) to $982.74 (bull).

What is META's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $54.07B, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 8.1% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $5.88B net debt and dividing by 2.61B shares: Bear $396.00 | Base $617.96 | Bull $982.74. Current price $631.09 implies -6% to base case.

How is META's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=8.1%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($1621.22B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 30.0x.