MODEL VERDICT
Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $648.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $655.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $639.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $670.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $653.06 | Below threshold | +3.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 29 analyst estimates | $341.68 | -47.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 24 industry peers | $466.13 | -28.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 19 industry peers | $367.17 | -43.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 27 industry peers | $244.45 | -62.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 20 industry peers | $270.21 | -58.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 27 industry peers | $217.57 | -66.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $417.64 | -35.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 34 industry peers | $195.88 | -69.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 34 industry peers | $233.58 | -64.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 23 industry peers | $499.57 | -22.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 27 industry peers | $236.42 | -63.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $418.39 | -35.4% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 24× | 26× | 28× (Current) | 30× | 32× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $605 | $656 | $706 | $757 | $807 |
| Conservative (12%) | $631 | $684 | $736 | $789 | $842 |
| Base Case (18.4%) | $667 | $723 | $779 | $834 | $890 |
| Bull Case (25%) | $704 | $763 | $821 | $880 | $939 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.84 | 24.54 | 14.01 | 31.92 | 5.54 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.58 | 20.27 | 11.62 | 23.93 | 3.82 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.72 | 17.52 | 8.96 | 19.78 | 3.67 |
| P/FCF | 27.04 | 27.83 | 17.07 | 36.85 | 6.81 |
| P/FFO | 19.49 | 20.31 | 10.20 | 24.37 | 4.50 |
| P/TBV | 7.45 | 7.26 | 3.11 | 9.50 | 2.16 |
| P/AFFO | 158.53 | 40.44 | 33.42 | 714.63 | 250.78 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.36 | 6.15 | 2.59 | 8.38 | 1.94 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.59 | 8.35 | 2.79 | 9.30 | 2.26 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates META's fair value at $418.39 vs the current price of $648.18, implying -35.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $418.39 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $319.37 (P10) to $523.45 (P90), with a median of $415.36.
META's current P/E of 27.6x compares to the industry median of 15.6x (19 peers in the group). This represents a +76.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
60 analysts cover META with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $853.00 (range: $700.00 — $1117.00), implying +31.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (2), Buy (48), Hold (7), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: META trades at the 6320th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (24.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that META's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (30.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1010.0% to approximately $583. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.