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National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$139.01
→
Intrinsic$83.97
-40%
$54.65$83.97$139.71
Market implies 20% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 8% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $139, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (20%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $55 → Bull $140. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $101 | $111 | $122 | $134 |
| 10% | $70 | $77 | $84 | $92 |
| 12% | $52 | $57 | $63 | $69 |
| 14% | $41 | $45 | $49 | $54 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($140) offers 1% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($55) implies 61% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 20% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 40% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$86.10M
Year 2$93.00M
Year 3$100.46M
Year 4$108.52M
Year 5$117.22M
Terminal$1.72B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$79.70MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.