National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)
Valuation Overview•Is National HealthCare Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
Priced at a premium to peer multiples and intrinsic cash flows, demanding strong execution to justify current levels.
Moderate quality score of 64/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral. However, capital return yields remain modest, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
NHC struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($24M) and minimal debt risk.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (12.0% 3Y CAGR) paired with highly explosive earnings growth (74.2% EPS 3Y CAGR). However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-0.4%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $380.0M | +16.4% | +12.0% | +9.0% | +5.2% | |
| EBITDA | -$92.7M | — | +37.5% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $35.9M | +17.7% | +74.9% | — | +8.5% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.27 | +17.5% | +74.2% | +23.0% | +9.1% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $52.9M | +86.5% | — | -3.9% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 37.2% | 47.7% | 42.6% | 41.3% |
| Operating Margin | -0.4% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% |
| Net Margin | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.6% |
| FCF Margin | 11.0% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 6.6% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | — | $1.91 | — | ||
| Q1'26 | — | $1.83 | — | ||
| Q4'25 | — | $1.58 | — | ||
| Q3'25 | — | $1.65 | — | ||
| Q2'25 | — | $1.59 | — | ||
| Q1'25 | — | $1.66 | — | ||
| Q4'24 | — | $1.27 | — | ||
| Q3'24 | — | $1.00 | — |
Total return is +92.5% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +67.5%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +55.0% | +45.7% | — |
| 1Y | +92.5% | +67.5% | +2.4% |
| 3YCAGR | +51.0% | +29.1% | +12.1% |
| 5YCAGR | +25.4% | +10.1% | +17.1% |
| 10YCAGR | +13.3% | -0.6% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) valuation, health, and returns.
National HealthCare Corporation is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -74.8% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $50.82)
National HealthCare Corporation has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $50.82 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $146.07. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
National HealthCare Corporation displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 64/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 6.2 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 9.9%.
National HealthCare Corporation pays a 1.2% dividend yield, covered by a 32% payout ratio with 21 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.5% buyback yield.
National HealthCare Corporation's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +16.4% 1Y revenue growth and +17.5% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +12.0%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 0 analysts. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for National HealthCare Corporation include: -13.4% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.55x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.