Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$163.50
→
Intrinsic$306.48
+87%
$206.95$306.48$495.37
Market implies 8% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests NHC could have 87% upside at 23% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $164, the market prices in 8% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (23%).
Range: Bear $207 → Bull $495. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 19% | 21% | 23% | 25% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $377 | $408 | $441 | $477 |
| 10% | $262 | $284 | $306 | $331 |
| 12% | $199 | $215 | $232 | $250 |
| 14% | $159 | $172 | $185 | $199 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($495) offers 203% upside at 28% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (8%) ≤ historical CAGR (23%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($207) with 18% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 23% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$182.88M
Year 2$225.01M
Year 3$276.85M
Year 4$340.64M
Year 5$419.12M
Terminal$6.17B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate23.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$148.63MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.