MODEL VERDICT
National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $163.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $157.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $169.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $162.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $129.76 | Below threshold | +25.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 26 analyst estimates | $135.92 | -16.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $115.99 | -29.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $149.09 | -8.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 22 industry peers | $158.48 | -3.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 26 industry peers | $112.68 | -31.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 23 industry peers | $201.43 | +23.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 11 industry peers | $230.08 | +40.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 31 industry peers | $134.70 | -17.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 31 industry peers | $91.00 | -44.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 21 industry peers | $161.05 | -1.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 23 industry peers | $163.50 | +0.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $154.59 | -5.5% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $142 | $159 | $176 | $193 | $209 |
| Conservative (15%) | $150 | $168 | $185 | $203 | $220 |
| Base Case (23.0%) | $160 | $179 | $198 | $217 | $236 |
| Bull Case (31%) | $171 | $191 | $211 | $231 | $251 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.16 | 19.47 | 7.56 | 41.03 | 10.22 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.99 | 16.18 | 7.33 | 35.49 | 9.55 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.62 | 13.63 | 11.84 | 16.50 | 1.59 |
| P/FCF | 20.29 | 17.54 | 5.63 | 45.55 | 13.44 |
| P/FFO | 11.76 | 12.17 | 5.84 | 14.60 | 2.79 |
| P/TBV | 1.69 | 1.75 | 1.31 | 2.12 | 0.34 |
| P/AFFO | 16.64 | 16.46 | 7.49 | 28.08 | 6.07 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.49 | 1.56 | 1.05 | 2.00 | 0.34 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.18 | 1.25 | 0.86 | 1.46 | 0.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates NHC's fair value at $154.59 vs the current price of $163.50, implying -5.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $154.59 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $127.48 (P10) to $167.96 (P90), with a median of $147.41.
NHC's current P/E of 21.3x compares to the industry median of 19.4x (20 peers in the group). This represents a +9.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.2x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
No analyst coverage data is available for NHC.
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NHC trades at the 5500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (21.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NHC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 250.0% to approximately $168. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.