Comprehensive Stock Comparison
Compare American Express Company (AXP) vs Mastercard Incorporated (MA) vs Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) Stock
Analyze side-by-side fundamentals, valuation, growth, and profitability to decide which stock is the better buy.
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Quick Verdict
| Category | Winner | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | MA | 16.4% revenue growth vs COF's 9.0% |
| Value | COF | Lower P/E (9.7x vs 17.6x) |
| Quality / Margins | MA | 45.6% net margin vs COF's 8.8% |
| Stability / Safety | MA | Beta 0.78 vs COF's 1.53 |
| Dividends | COF | 1.2% yield, 2-year raise streak, vs MA's 0.6% |
| Momentum (1Y) | AXP | +3.7% vs MA's -9.7% |
| Efficiency (ROA) | MA | 27.6% ROA vs COF's 0.2%, ROIC 56.5% vs 4.1% |
Who Each Stock Is For
Income & stability
Growth exposure
Long-term compounding (10Y)
Sleep-well-at-night portfolio
Valuation efficiency (growth/$)
Defensive / Recession hedge
Business Model
What each company does and how it makes money
American Express is a global payments and financial services company that issues charge and credit cards to consumers and businesses. It generates revenue primarily from discount fees charged to merchants — typically 2-3% of transaction value — and cardmember fees, with additional income from interest on revolving balances and travel services. Its key competitive advantage is its premium brand positioning and closed-loop network — which allows it to control both card issuance and merchant acceptance while collecting rich transaction data.
Mastercard is a global payment technology company that operates a network connecting consumers, merchants, financial institutions, and governments. It generates revenue primarily from transaction processing fees—charging a small percentage of each payment volume—and from service fees for its data analytics, consulting, and security solutions. The company's moat lies in its massive two-sided network effect—the more merchants accept Mastercard, the more valuable it becomes to cardholders, and vice versa—creating a powerful ecosystem that's difficult to replicate.
Capital One is a diversified financial services company that operates primarily as a credit card issuer and consumer bank. It generates revenue through three main segments: credit card interest and fees (its largest segment), consumer banking services, and commercial banking operations. The company's key advantage lies in its sophisticated data analytics and technology platform—which enables targeted marketing and risk assessment—coupled with its direct banking model that reduces physical branch costs.
Revenue Breakdown by Segment
How each company's revenue is distributed across its business units
Financial Metrics Comparison
Side-by-side fundamentals across 3 stocks. BestLagging
Financial Scorecard
MA leads in 3 of 6 categories (Financial Metrics, Profitability & Efficiency). COF leads in 1 (Valuation Metrics). 2 tied.
Financial Metrics (TTM)
AXP is the larger business by revenue, generating $74.2B annually — 2.3x MA's $32.8B. MA is the more profitable business, keeping 45.6% of every revenue dollar as net income compared to COF's 8.8%.
| Metric | AXPAmerican Express … | MAMastercard Incorp… | COFCapital One Finan… |
|---|---|---|---|
| RevenueTrailing 12 months | $74.2B | $32.8B | $53.9B |
| EBITDAEarnings before interest/tax | $15.2B | $20.5B | $6.1B |
| Net IncomeAfter-tax profit | $10.5B | $15.0B | $1.4B |
| Free Cash FlowCash after capex | $18.9B | $17.1B | $20.8B |
| Gross MarginGross profit ÷ Revenue | +81.9% | +83.4% | +50.8% |
| Operating MarginEBIT ÷ Revenue | +17.4% | +59.2% | +11.0% |
| Net MarginNet income ÷ Revenue | +13.7% | +45.6% | +8.8% |
| FCF MarginFCF ÷ Revenue | +16.4% | +52.3% | +31.4% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | — | — | — |
| EPS Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | +18.6% | +24.2% | +9.5% |
Valuation Metrics
At 16.9x trailing earnings, COF trades at a 46% valuation discount to MA's 31.3x P/E. Adjusting for growth (PEG ratio), MA offers better value at 1.49x vs COF's 10.08x — a lower PEG means you pay less per unit of expected earnings growth.
| Metric | AXPAmerican Express … | MAMastercard Incorp… | COFCapital One Finan… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market CapShares × price | $212.8B | $457.8B | $124.4B |
| Enterprise ValueMkt cap + debt − cash | $223.4B | $465.7B | $126.7B |
| Trailing P/EPrice ÷ TTM EPS | 22.03x | 31.31x | 16.88x |
| Forward P/EPrice ÷ next-FY EPS est. | 17.58x | 26.43x | 9.67x |
| PEG RatioP/E ÷ EPS growth rate | 1.85x | 1.49x | 10.08x |
| EV / EBITDAEnterprise value multiple | 15.33x | 22.67x | 13.85x |
| Price / SalesMarket cap ÷ Revenue | 2.87x | 13.96x | 2.31x |
| Price / BookPrice ÷ Book value/share | 7.28x | 59.96x | 1.23x |
| Price / FCFMarket cap ÷ FCF | 17.53x | 26.68x | 7.34x |
Profitability & Efficiency
MA delivers a 193.0% return on equity — every $100 of shareholder capital generates $193 in annual profit, vs $1 for COF. COF carries lower financial leverage with a 0.75x debt-to-equity ratio, signaling a more conservative balance sheet compared to MA's 2.45x. On the Piotroski fundamental quality scale (0–9), MA scores 9/9 vs COF's 5/9, reflecting strong financial health.
| Metric | AXPAmerican Express … | MAMastercard Incorp… | COFCapital One Finan… |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE (TTM)Return on equity | +32.5% | +193.0% | +1.2% |
| ROA (TTM)Return on assets | +3.5% | +27.6% | +0.2% |
| ROICReturn on invested capital | +12.2% | +56.5% | +4.1% |
| ROCEReturn on capital employed | +11.2% | +64.4% | +4.6% |
| Piotroski ScoreFundamental quality 0–9 | 7 | 9 | 5 |
| Debt / EquityFinancial leverage | 1.69x | 2.45x | 0.75x |
| Net DebtTotal debt minus cash | $10.5B | $7.9B | $2.3B |
| Cash & Equiv.Liquid assets | $40.6B | $11.1B | $43.2B |
| Total DebtShort + long-term debt | $51.1B | $19.0B | $45.6B |
| Interest CoverageEBIT ÷ Interest expense | 1.64x | 26.39x | 0.11x |
Total Returns (with DRIP)
A $10,000 investment in AXP five years ago would be worth $23,155 today (with dividends reinvested), compared to $14,586 for MA. Over the past 12 months, AXP leads with a +3.7% total return vs MA's -9.7%. The 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) favors COF at 23.1% vs MA's 13.9% — a key indicator of consistent wealth creation.
| Metric | AXPAmerican Express … | MAMastercard Incorp… | COFCapital One Finan… |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD ReturnYear-to-date | -16.9% | -8.0% | -20.8% |
| 1-Year ReturnPast 12 months | +3.7% | -9.7% | -1.1% |
| 3-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +82.4% | +47.9% | +86.3% |
| 5-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +131.5% | +45.9% | +68.2% |
| 10-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +491.2% | +515.7% | +228.4% |
| CAGR (3Y)Annualised 3-year return | +22.2% | +13.9% | +23.1% |
Risk & Volatility
MA is the less volatile stock with a 0.78 beta — it tends to amplify market swings less than COF's 1.53 beta. A beta below 1.0 means the stock typically moves less than the S&P 500. MA currently trades 85.9% from its 52-week high vs COF's 75.4% drawdown — a narrower gap to the peak suggests stronger recent price momentum.
| Metric | AXPAmerican Express … | MAMastercard Incorp… | COFCapital One Finan… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beta (5Y)Sensitivity to S&P 500 | 1.35x | 0.78x | 1.53x |
| 52-Week HighHighest price in past year | $387.49 | $601.77 | $259.64 |
| 52-Week LowLowest price in past year | $220.43 | $465.59 | $143.22 |
| % of 52W HighCurrent price vs 52-week peak | +79.7% | +85.9% | +75.4% |
| RSI (14)Momentum oscillator 0–100 | 42.2 | 42.8 | 45.1 |
| Avg Volume (50D)Average daily shares traded | 2.4M | 3.2M | 4.5M |
Analyst Outlook
Analyst consensus: AXP as "Hold", MA as "Buy", COF as "Buy". Consensus price targets imply 39.9% upside for COF (target: $274) vs 21.3% for AXP (target: $375). For income investors, COF offers the higher dividend yield at 1.24% vs MA's 0.59%.
| Metric | AXPAmerican Express … | MAMastercard Incorp… | COFCapital One Finan… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Analyst RatingConsensus buy/hold/sell | Hold | Buy | Buy |
| Price TargetConsensus 12-month target | $374.58 | $667.00 | $273.62 |
| # AnalystsCovering analysts | 56 | 63 | 56 |
| Dividend YieldAnnual dividend ÷ price | +0.9% | +0.6% | +1.2% |
| Dividend StreakConsecutive years of raises | 14 | 14 | 2 |
| Dividend / ShareAnnual DPS | $2.80 | $3.07 | $2.43 |
| Buyback YieldShare repurchases ÷ mkt cap | +2.8% | +2.6% | +0.6% |
Historical Charts
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Chart 1Total Return — 5 Years (Rebased to 100)
| Stock | Mar 20 | Feb 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Express Co… (AXP) | 100 | 309.85 | +209.9% |
| Mastercard Incorpor… (MA) | 100 | 181.06 | +81.1% |
| Capital One Financi… (COF) | 100 | 244.54 | +144.5% |
American Express Co… (AXP) returned +132% over 5 years vs Mastercard Incorpor… (MA)'s +46%. A $10,000 investment in AXP 5 years ago would be worth $23,155 today (including dividends reinvested).
Chart 2Revenue Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Express Co… (AXP) | $38.4B | $74.2B | +93.4% |
| Mastercard Incorpor… (MA) | $10.8B | $32.8B | +204.3% |
| Capital One Financi… (COF) | $27.5B | $53.9B | +96.0% |
Mastercard Incorporated's revenue grew from $10.8B (2016) to $32.8B (2025) — a 13.2% CAGR.
Chart 3Net Margin Trend — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Express Co… (AXP) | 14.0% | 13.7% | -2.6% |
| Mastercard Incorpor… (MA) | 37.7% | 45.6% | +21.2% |
| Capital One Financi… (COF) | 13.6% | 8.8% | -35.4% |
Mastercard Incorporated's net margin went from 38% (2016) to 46% (2025).
Chart 4P/E Ratio History — 9 Years
| Stock | 2017 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Express Co… (AXP) | 33.4 | 21.2 | -36.5% |
| Mastercard Incorpor… (MA) | 41.5 | 34.6 | -16.6% |
| Capital One Financi… (COF) | 28.5 | 15.4 | -46.0% |
American Express Company has traded in a 12x–33x P/E range over 8 years; current trailing P/E is ~22x. Mastercard Incorporated has traded in a 34x–56x P/E range over 9 years; current trailing P/E is ~31x.
Chart 5EPS Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Express Co… (AXP) | 5.65 | 14.02 | +148.1% |
| Mastercard Incorpor… (MA) | 3.69 | 16.52 | +347.7% |
| Capital One Financi… (COF) | 6.89 | 11.59 | +68.2% |
Mastercard Incorporated's EPS grew from $3.69 (2016) to $16.52 (2025) — a 18% CAGR.
Chart 6Free Cash Flow — 5 Years
American Express Company generated $12B FCF in 2024 (-7% vs 2021). Mastercard Incorporated generated $17B FCF in 2025 (+98% vs 2021).
AXP vs MA vs COF: Key Questions Answered
9 questions · data-driven answers · updated daily
01Is AXP or MA or COF a better buy right now?
Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) offers the better valuation at 16.9x trailing P/E (9.7x forward), making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate Mastercard Incorporated (MA) a "Buy" — based on 63 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.
02Which has the better valuation — AXP or MA or COF?
On trailing P/E, Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) is the cheapest at 16.9x versus Mastercard Incorporated at 31.3x. On forward P/E, Capital One Financial Corporation is actually cheaper at 9.7x. The PEG ratio (P/E divided by earnings growth rate) is the most growth-adjusted single valuation metric: Mastercard Incorporated wins at 1.26x versus Capital One Financial Corporation's 10.08x — a reasonable growth-adjusted valuation.
03Which is the better long-term investment — AXP or MA or COF?
Over the past 5 years, American Express Company (AXP) delivered a total return of +131.5%, compared to +45.9% for Mastercard Incorporated (MA). A $10,000 investment in AXP five years ago would be worth approximately $23K today (assuming dividends reinvested). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: MA returned +515.7% versus COF's +228.4%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.
04Which is safer — AXP or MA or COF?
By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), Mastercard Incorporated (MA) is the lower-risk stock at 0.78β versus Capital One Financial Corporation's 1.53β — meaning COF is approximately 97% more volatile than MA relative to the S&P 500. On balance sheet safety, Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) carries a lower debt/equity ratio of 75% versus 2% for Mastercard Incorporated — giving it more financial flexibility in a downturn.
05Which has better profit margins — AXP or MA or COF?
Mastercard Incorporated (MA) is the more profitable company, earning 45.6% net margin versus 8.8% for Capital One Financial Corporation — meaning it keeps 45.6% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: MA leads at 59.2% versus 11.0% for COF. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — MA leads at 83.4%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.
06Is AXP or MA or COF more undervalued right now?
The PEG ratio (forward P/E divided by expected earnings growth rate) is the most precise measure of undervaluation relative to growth potential. By this metric, Mastercard Incorporated (MA) is the more undervalued stock at a PEG of 1.26x versus Capital One Financial Corporation's 10.08x. A PEG below 1.5 suggests fair-to-attractive pricing relative to expected growth. On forward earnings alone, Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) trades at 9.7x forward P/E versus 26.4x for Mastercard Incorporated — 16.8x cheaper on a one-year earnings basis. Analyst consensus price targets imply the most upside for COF: 39.9% to $273.62.
07Which pays a better dividend — AXP or MA or COF?
All stocks in this comparison pay dividends. Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) offers the highest yield at 1.2%, versus 0.6% for Mastercard Incorporated (MA).
08Is AXP or MA or COF better for a retirement portfolio?
For long-horizon retirement investors, Mastercard Incorporated (MA) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding (low volatility (β 0.78), 0.6% yield, +515.7% 10Y return). Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) carries a higher beta of 1.53 — meaning larger drawdowns in market downturns, which matters significantly when you cannot wait years for a recovery. Both have compounded well over 10 years (MA: +515.7%, COF: +228.4%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.
09What are the main differences between AXP and MA and COF?
Both stocks operate in the Financial Services sector, making this a peer-level intra-sector comparison — the same macro tailwinds and headwinds will affect both. In terms of investment character: AXP is a large-cap quality compounder stock; MA is a large-cap quality compounder stock; COF is a mid-cap deep-value stock. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.
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