Comprehensive Stock Comparison
Compare nCino, Inc. (NCNO) vs Forge Global Holdings, Inc. (FRGE) Stock
Analyze side-by-side fundamentals, valuation, growth, and profitability to decide which stock is the better buy.
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Quick Verdict
| Category | Winner | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | FRGE | 13.6% revenue growth vs NCNO's 13.5% |
| Quality / Margins | NCNO | -3.7% net margin vs FRGE's -67.4% |
| Stability / Safety | FRGE | Beta 0.56 vs NCNO's 0.95, lower leverage |
| Dividends | Tie | Neither pays a meaningful dividend |
| Momentum (1Y) | FRGE | +200.0% vs NCNO's -48.5% |
| Efficiency (ROA) | NCNO | -1.4% ROA vs FRGE's -24.8%, ROIC -1.2% vs -45.6% |
Who Each Stock Is For
Income & stability
Growth exposure
Long-term compounding (10Y)
Sleep-well-at-night portfolio
Defensive / Recession hedge
Business Model
What each company does and how it makes money
nCino provides cloud-based banking software that digitizes and automates lending, account opening, and compliance processes for financial institutions. It generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for its SaaS platform — which includes its core Bank Operating System, nCino IQ analytics suite, and SimpleNexus mortgage solutions — with professional services making up the remainder. The company's competitive moat lies in its comprehensive, integrated platform that creates high switching costs for banks by embedding deeply into their core lending and deposit operations.
Forge Global operates a marketplace and technology platform for trading private company shares. It generates revenue primarily through transaction fees from secondary market trades in private securities — supplemented by data subscriptions and technology services for market participants. The company's key advantage is its established network effect and proprietary technology infrastructure that connects private companies, shareholders, and accredited investors in a traditionally illiquid market.
Revenue Breakdown by Segment
How each company's revenue is distributed across its business units
Financial Metrics Comparison
Side-by-side fundamentals across 2 stocks. BestLagging
Financial Scorecard
NCNO leads in 3 of 6 categories (Financial Metrics, Valuation Metrics). FRGE leads in 2 (Total Returns, Risk & Volatility).
Financial Metrics (TTM)
NCNO is the larger business by revenue, generating $586M annually — 6.3x FRGE's $93M. NCNO is the more profitable business, keeping -3.7% of every revenue dollar as net income compared to FRGE's -67.4%.
| Metric | NCNOnCino, Inc. | FRGEForge Global Hold… |
|---|---|---|
| RevenueTrailing 12 months | $586M | $93M |
| EBITDAEarnings before interest/tax | $27M | -$64M |
| Net IncomeAfter-tax profit | -$22M | -$63M |
| Free Cash FlowCash after capex | $60M | -$40M |
| Gross MarginGross profit ÷ Revenue | +60.1% | +11.9% |
| Operating MarginEBIT ÷ Revenue | -0.8% | -73.5% |
| Net MarginNet income ÷ Revenue | -3.7% | -67.4% |
| FCF MarginFCF ÷ Revenue | +10.2% | -43.4% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | +9.6% | +10.6% |
| EPS Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | +2.3% | +8.1% |
Valuation Metrics
| Metric | NCNOnCino, Inc. | FRGEForge Global Hold… |
|---|---|---|
| Market CapShares × price | $1.9B | $8.4B |
| Enterprise ValueMkt cap + debt − cash | $2.0B | $8.3B |
| Trailing P/EPrice ÷ TTM EPS | -48.91x | -8.29x |
| Forward P/EPrice ÷ next-FY EPS est. | 17.83x | — |
| PEG RatioP/E ÷ EPS growth rate | — | — |
| EV / EBITDAEnterprise value multiple | 111.31x | — |
| Price / SalesMarket cap ÷ Revenue | 3.54x | 105.74x |
| Price / BookPrice ÷ Book value/share | 1.69x | 2.42x |
| Price / FCFMarket cap ÷ FCF | 35.81x | — |
Profitability & Efficiency
NCNO delivers a -2.1% return on equity — every $100 of shareholder capital generates $-2 in annual profit, vs $-30 for FRGE. FRGE carries lower financial leverage with a 0.06x debt-to-equity ratio, signaling a more conservative balance sheet compared to NCNO's 0.22x. On the Piotroski fundamental quality scale (0–9), NCNO scores 5/9 vs FRGE's 3/9, reflecting solid financial health.
| Metric | NCNOnCino, Inc. | FRGEForge Global Hold… |
|---|---|---|
| ROE (TTM)Return on equity | -2.1% | -30.3% |
| ROA (TTM)Return on assets | -1.4% | -24.8% |
| ROICReturn on invested capital | -1.2% | -45.6% |
| ROCEReturn on capital employed | -1.5% | -31.3% |
| Piotroski ScoreFundamental quality 0–9 | 5 | 3 |
| Debt / EquityFinancial leverage | 0.22x | 0.06x |
| Net DebtTotal debt minus cash | $116M | -$91M |
| Cash & Equiv.Liquid assets | $121M | $105M |
| Total DebtShort + long-term debt | $237M | $15M |
| Interest CoverageEBIT ÷ Interest expense | -0.51x | — |
Total Returns (with DRIP)
A $10,000 investment in FRGE five years ago would be worth $2,927 today (with dividends reinvested), compared to $2,269 for NCNO. Over the past 12 months, FRGE leads with a +200.0% total return vs NCNO's -48.5%. The 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) favors FRGE at 18.6% vs NCNO's -16.0% — a key indicator of consistent wealth creation.
| Metric | NCNOnCino, Inc. | FRGEForge Global Hold… |
|---|---|---|
| YTD ReturnYear-to-date | -34.5% | +1.2% |
| 1-Year ReturnPast 12 months | -48.5% | +200.0% |
| 3-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -40.8% | +66.7% |
| 5-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -77.3% | -70.7% |
| 10-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -82.4% | -70.9% |
| CAGR (3Y)Annualised 3-year return | -16.0% | +18.6% |
Risk & Volatility
FRGE is the less volatile stock with a 0.56 beta — it tends to amplify market swings less than NCNO's 0.95 beta. A beta below 1.0 means the stock typically moves less than the S&P 500. FRGE currently trades 99.9% from its 52-week high vs NCNO's 47.6% drawdown — a narrower gap to the peak suggests stronger recent price momentum.
| Metric | NCNOnCino, Inc. | FRGEForge Global Hold… |
|---|---|---|
| Beta (5Y)Sensitivity to S&P 500 | 0.95x | 0.56x |
| 52-Week HighHighest price in past year | $33.92 | $45.03 |
| 52-Week LowLowest price in past year | $13.80 | $6.60 |
| % of 52W HighCurrent price vs 52-week peak | +47.6% | +99.9% |
| RSI (14)Momentum oscillator 0–100 | 37.4 | 64.7 |
| Avg Volume (50D)Average daily shares traded | 1.7M | 146K |
Analyst Outlook
Wall Street rates NCNO as "Buy" and FRGE as "Hold". Consensus price targets imply 106.0% upside for NCNO (target: $33) vs 0.0% for FRGE (target: $45).
| Metric | NCNOnCino, Inc. | FRGEForge Global Hold… |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst RatingConsensus buy/hold/sell | Buy | Hold |
| Price TargetConsensus 12-month target | $33.25 | $45.00 |
| # AnalystsCovering analysts | 22 | 5 |
| Dividend YieldAnnual dividend ÷ price | — | — |
| Dividend StreakConsecutive years of raises | — | — |
| Dividend / ShareAnnual DPS | — | — |
| Buyback YieldShare repurchases ÷ mkt cap | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Historical Charts
Charts are rendered on first load. Hover for details.
Chart 1Total Return — 5 Years (Rebased to 100)
| Stock | Feb 21 | Feb 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| nCino, Inc. (NCNO) | 100 | 29.11 | -70.9% |
| Forge Global Holdin… (FRGE) | 100 | 28.88 | -71.1% |
Forge Global Holdin… (FRGE) returned -71% over 5 years vs nCino, Inc. (NCNO)'s -77%.
Chart 2Revenue Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2018 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| nCino, Inc. (NCNO) | $58M | $541M | +829.9% |
| Forge Global Holdin… (FRGE) | $24M | $79M | +229.9% |
nCino, Inc.'s revenue grew from $58M (2018) to $541M (2025) — a 37.5% CAGR.
Chart 3Net Margin Trend — 10 Years
| Stock | 2018 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| nCino, Inc. (NCNO) | -32.0% | -7.0% | +78.1% |
| Forge Global Holdin… (FRGE) | -63.4% | -83.6% | -32.0% |
nCino, Inc.'s net margin went from -32% (2018) to -7% (2025).
Chart 4EPS Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2018 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| nCino, Inc. (NCNO) | -0.21 | -0.33 | -57.1% |
| Forge Global Holdin… (FRGE) | -4.42 | -5.43 | -22.9% |
nCino, Inc.'s EPS grew from $-0.21 (2018) to $-0.33 (2025).
Chart 5Free Cash Flow — 5 Years
nCino, Inc. generated $53M FCF in 2025 (+993% vs 2021). Forge Global Holdings, Inc. generated $-41M FCF in 2024 (-641% vs 2021).
NCNO vs FRGE: Frequently Asked Questions
8 questions · data-driven answers · updated daily
01Is NCNO or FRGE a better buy right now?
Analysts rate nCino, Inc. (NCNO) a "Buy" — based on 22 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.
02Which is the better long-term investment — NCNO or FRGE?
Over the past 5 years, Forge Global Holdings, Inc. (FRGE) delivered a total return of -70.7%, compared to -77.3% for nCino, Inc. (NCNO). A $10,000 investment in FRGE five years ago would be worth approximately $3K today (assuming dividends reinvested). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: FRGE returned -70.9% versus NCNO's -82.4%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.
03Which is safer — NCNO or FRGE?
By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), Forge Global Holdings, Inc. (FRGE) is the lower-risk stock at 0.56β versus nCino, Inc.'s 0.95β — meaning NCNO is approximately 71% more volatile than FRGE relative to the S&P 500. On balance sheet safety, Forge Global Holdings, Inc. (FRGE) carries a lower debt/equity ratio of 6% versus 22% for nCino, Inc. — giving it more financial flexibility in a downturn.
04Which has better profit margins — NCNO or FRGE?
nCino, Inc. (NCNO) is the more profitable company, earning -7.0% net margin versus -83.6% for Forge Global Holdings, Inc. — meaning it keeps -7.0% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: NCNO leads at -3.4% versus -103.7% for FRGE. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — NCNO leads at 60.1%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.
05Is NCNO or FRGE more undervalued right now?
Analyst consensus price targets imply the most upside for NCNO: 106.0% to $33.25.
06Which pays a better dividend — NCNO or FRGE?
None of the stocks in this comparison currently pay a material dividend. All are effectively zero-yield and should be held for capital appreciation rather than income.
07Is NCNO or FRGE better for a retirement portfolio?
For long-horizon retirement investors, Forge Global Holdings, Inc. (FRGE) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding (low volatility (β 0.56)). Both have compounded well over 10 years (FRGE: -70.9%, NCNO: -82.4%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.
08What are the main differences between NCNO and FRGE?
Both stocks operate in the Technology sector, making this a peer-level intra-sector comparison — the same macro tailwinds and headwinds will affect both. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.
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