nCino, Inc. (NCNO)
Valuation Overview•Is nCino, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
The market is pricing the stock in line with historical averages, assuming steady-state growth.
Moderate quality score of 54/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
NCNO demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (13.4% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (4.5%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $159.4M | +10.0% | +13.4% | +23.8% | — | |
| EBITDA | $32.1M | — | — | — | — | |
| Net Income | $13.6M | +113.7% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.12 | +115.2% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $80.8M | +56.0% | — | +76.0% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 60.7% | 60.1% | 59.6% | 56.2% |
| Operating Margin | 4.5% | -3.7% | -12.0% | -17.7% |
| Net Margin | 2.2% | -5.0% | -11.6% | -17.2% |
| FCF Margin | 18.2% | 11.6% | 3.5% | -4.1% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.28 | $0.33 | +17.9% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.21 | $0.37 | +76.2% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.21 | $0.31 | +50.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.14 | $0.22 | +57.1% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.16 | $0.16 | +0.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.18 | $0.12 | -33.3% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.16 | $0.21 | +31.3% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.13 | $0.14 | +7.7% |
Total return is -44.8% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -69.8%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -40.0% | -49.3% | — |
| 1Y | -44.8% | -69.8% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -21.0% | -39.3% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -25.7% | -37.1% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -16.7% | -29.9% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about nCino, Inc. (NCNO) valuation, health, and returns.
nCino, Inc. is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Fair versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $14.17)
nCino, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $14.17 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $15.82 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $27.50 (implying +85.8% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
nCino, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 54/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 1.5 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 0.2%.
nCino, Inc. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 7.7% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by -0.7% in the last 12 months.
nCino, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +10.0% 1Y revenue growth and +115.2% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +13.4%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 23 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 83% of recent quarters with a 4-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +85.8% change from current levels.
Investment risks for nCino, Inc. include: -57.1% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.93x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.