Comprehensive Stock Comparison
Compare Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) vs Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Stock
Analyze side-by-side fundamentals, valuation, growth, and profitability to decide which stock is the better buy.
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Quick Verdict
| Category | Winner | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | NVAX | 64.7% revenue growth vs MRNA's -53.3% |
| Quality / Margins | NVAX | 39.2% net margin vs MRNA's -140.3% |
| Stability / Safety | MRNA | Beta 1.25 vs NVAX's 1.25 |
| Dividends | Tie | Neither pays a meaningful dividend |
| Momentum (1Y) | MRNA | +73.0% vs NVAX's +21.7% |
| Efficiency (ROA) | NVAX | 37.4% ROA vs MRNA's -25.7% |
Who Each Stock Is For
Income & stability
Growth exposure
Long-term compounding (10Y)
Sleep-well-at-night portfolio
Defensive / Recession hedge
Business Model
What each company does and how it makes money
Novavax is a biotechnology company that develops and commercializes protein-based vaccines for serious infectious diseases. It generates revenue primarily from its COVID-19 vaccine sales and government contracts, with future potential from its pipeline including seasonal flu and RSV vaccines. The company's key advantage is its proprietary recombinant nanoparticle vaccine technology platform, which enables rapid development of vaccines with demonstrated efficacy.
Moderna is a biotechnology company that develops messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines for infectious diseases, cancer, and other serious conditions. It generates revenue primarily from vaccine sales—notably its COVID-19 vaccine—with additional income from research collaborations and government grants. The company's key advantage is its proprietary mRNA technology platform, which enables rapid development of new vaccines and therapeutics compared to traditional methods.
Revenue Breakdown by Segment
How each company's revenue is distributed across its business units
Financial Metrics Comparison
Side-by-side fundamentals across 2 stocks. BestLagging
Financial Scorecard
NVAX leads in 3 of 6 categories (Financial Metrics, Profitability & Efficiency). MRNA leads in 2 (Total Returns, Risk & Volatility). 1 tied.
Financial Metrics (TTM)
MRNA is the larger business by revenue, generating $2.2B annually — 2.0x NVAX's $1.1B. NVAX is the more profitable business, keeping 39.2% of every revenue dollar as net income compared to MRNA's -140.3%. On growth, NVAX holds the edge at +66.6% YoY revenue growth, suggesting stronger near-term business momentum.
| Metric | NVAXNovavax, Inc. | MRNAModerna, Inc. |
|---|---|---|
| RevenueTrailing 12 months | $1.1B | $2.2B |
| EBITDAEarnings before interest/tax | $453M | -$3.3B |
| Net IncomeAfter-tax profit | $440M | -$3.1B |
| Free Cash FlowCash after capex | -$251M | -$2.7B |
| Gross MarginGross profit ÷ Revenue | +93.5% | +11.9% |
| Operating MarginEBIT ÷ Revenue | +40.3% | -155.9% |
| Net MarginNet income ÷ Revenue | +39.2% | -140.3% |
| FCF MarginFCF ÷ Revenue | -22.3% | -119.9% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | +66.6% | -45.2% |
| EPS Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | +158.8% | -16.6% |
Valuation Metrics
| Metric | NVAXNovavax, Inc. | MRNAModerna, Inc. |
|---|---|---|
| Market CapShares × price | $1.7B | $20.9B |
| Enterprise ValueMkt cap + debt − cash | $1.7B | $19.8B |
| Trailing P/EPrice ÷ TTM EPS | 3.93x | -5.78x |
| Forward P/EPrice ÷ next-FY EPS est. | — | — |
| PEG RatioP/E ÷ EPS growth rate | — | — |
| EV / EBITDAEnterprise value multiple | 3.71x | — |
| Price / SalesMarket cap ÷ Revenue | 1.49x | 6.55x |
| Price / BookPrice ÷ Book value/share | — | 1.89x |
| Price / FCFMarket cap ÷ FCF | — | — |
Profitability & Efficiency
On the Piotroski fundamental quality scale (0–9), NVAX scores 5/9 vs MRNA's 4/9, reflecting solid financial health.
| Metric | NVAXNovavax, Inc. | MRNAModerna, Inc. |
|---|---|---|
| ROE (TTM)Return on equity | — | -33.4% |
| ROA (TTM)Return on assets | +37.4% | -25.7% |
| ROICReturn on invested capital | — | -27.0% |
| ROCEReturn on capital employed | +80.7% | -28.9% |
| Piotroski ScoreFundamental quality 0–9 | 5 | 4 |
| Debt / EquityFinancial leverage | — | 0.07x |
| Net DebtTotal debt minus cash | $8M | -$1.2B |
| Cash & Equiv.Liquid assets | $241M | $1.9B |
| Total DebtShort + long-term debt | $249M | $747M |
| Interest CoverageEBIT ÷ Interest expense | — | -393.13x |
Total Returns (with DRIP)
A $10,000 investment in MRNA five years ago would be worth $3,403 today (with dividends reinvested), compared to $422 for NVAX. Over the past 12 months, MRNA leads with a +73.0% total return vs NVAX's +21.7%. The 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) favors NVAX at 3.1% vs MRNA's -27.2% — a key indicator of consistent wealth creation.
| Metric | NVAXNovavax, Inc. | MRNAModerna, Inc. |
|---|---|---|
| YTD ReturnYear-to-date | +42.2% | +73.6% |
| 1-Year ReturnPast 12 months | +21.7% | +73.0% |
| 3-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +9.5% | -61.4% |
| 5-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -95.8% | -66.0% |
| 10-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -88.4% | +188.0% |
| CAGR (3Y)Annualised 3-year return | +3.1% | -27.2% |
Risk & Volatility
MRNA is the less volatile stock with a 1.25 beta — it tends to amplify market swings less than NVAX's 1.25 beta. A beta below 1.0 means the stock typically moves less than the S&P 500. MRNA currently trades 97.0% from its 52-week high vs NVAX's 84.7% drawdown — a narrower gap to the peak suggests stronger recent price momentum.
| Metric | NVAXNovavax, Inc. | MRNAModerna, Inc. |
|---|---|---|
| Beta (5Y)Sensitivity to S&P 500 | 1.25x | 1.25x |
| 52-Week HighHighest price in past year | $11.97 | $55.20 |
| 52-Week LowLowest price in past year | $5.01 | $22.28 |
| % of 52W HighCurrent price vs 52-week peak | +84.7% | +97.0% |
| RSI (14)Momentum oscillator 0–100 | 74.8 | 71.6 |
| Avg Volume (50D)Average daily shares traded | 4.2M | 10.8M |
Analyst Outlook
Wall Street rates NVAX as "Buy" and MRNA as "Hold". Consensus price targets imply 43.0% upside for NVAX (target: $15) vs -34.9% for MRNA (target: $35).
| Metric | NVAXNovavax, Inc. | MRNAModerna, Inc. |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst RatingConsensus buy/hold/sell | Buy | Hold |
| Price TargetConsensus 12-month target | $14.50 | $34.89 |
| # AnalystsCovering analysts | 23 | 27 |
| Dividend YieldAnnual dividend ÷ price | — | — |
| Dividend StreakConsecutive years of raises | 1 | 0 |
| Dividend / ShareAnnual DPS | — | — |
| Buyback YieldShare repurchases ÷ mkt cap | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Historical Charts
Charts are rendered on first load. Hover for details.
Chart 1Total Return — 5 Years (Rebased to 100)
| Stock | Feb 20 | Feb 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) | 100 | 54.31 | -45.7% |
| Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) | 100 | 164.1 | +64.1% |
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) returned -66% over 5 years vs Novavax, Inc. (NVAX)'s -96%.
Chart 2Revenue Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) | $15M | $1.1B | +7217.7% |
| Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) | $108M | $3.2B | +2851.2% |
Novavax, Inc.'s revenue grew from $15M (2016) to $1.1B (2025) — a 61.1% CAGR.
Chart 3Net Margin Trend — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) | -18.2% | 39.2% | +314.9% |
| Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) | -199.5% | -111.3% | +44.2% |
Novavax, Inc.'s net margin went from -18% (2016) to 39% (2025).
Chart 4EPS Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) | -20.68 | 2.58 | +112.5% |
| Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) | -3.79 | -9.27 | -144.6% |
Novavax, Inc.'s EPS grew from $-20.68 (2016) to $2.58 (2025).
Chart 5Free Cash Flow — 5 Years
Novavax, Inc. generated $-250M FCF in 2025 (-194% vs 2021). Moderna, Inc. generated $-4B FCF in 2024 (-130% vs 2021).
NVAX vs MRNA: Frequently Asked Questions
7 questions · data-driven answers · updated daily
01Is NVAX or MRNA a better buy right now?
Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) offers the better valuation at 3.9x trailing P/E, making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) a "Buy" — based on 23 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.
02Which is the better long-term investment — NVAX or MRNA?
Over the past 5 years, Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) delivered a total return of -66.0%, compared to -95.8% for Novavax, Inc. (NVAX). A $10,000 investment in MRNA five years ago would be worth approximately $3K today (assuming dividends reinvested). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: MRNA returned +188.0% versus NVAX's -88.4%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.
03Which is safer — NVAX or MRNA?
By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) is the lower-risk stock at 1.25β versus Novavax, Inc.'s 1.25β — meaning NVAX is approximately 0% more volatile than MRNA relative to the S&P 500.
04Which has better profit margins — NVAX or MRNA?
Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) is the more profitable company, earning 39.2% net margin versus -111.3% for Moderna, Inc. — meaning it keeps 39.2% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: NVAX leads at 40.3% versus -123.3% for MRNA. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — NVAX leads at 93.5%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.
05Which pays a better dividend — NVAX or MRNA?
None of the stocks in this comparison currently pay a material dividend. All are effectively zero-yield and should be held for capital appreciation rather than income.
06Is NVAX or MRNA better for a retirement portfolio?
For long-horizon retirement investors, Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding (low volatility (β 1.25), +188.0% 10Y return). Both have compounded well over 10 years (MRNA: +188.0%, NVAX: -88.4%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.
07What are the main differences between NVAX and MRNA?
Both stocks operate in the Healthcare sector, making this a peer-level intra-sector comparison — the same macro tailwinds and headwinds will affect both. In terms of investment character: NVAX is a small-cap deep-value stock; MRNA is a mid-cap quality compounder stock. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.
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