...

Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

Popular:

Novavax, Inc. (NVAX)

View Full Profile →

Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$7.78
→
Intrinsic$0.00
-100%
0
$0.00$0.00$0.00
NVAX's FCF is temporarily suppressed due to reinvestment (actual margin: -36.1%). Valuation uses normalized cash flow (8% target margin) to reflect long-term earnings power.
Current price reflects expectations beyond normalized FCF — likely anticipating margin expansion, capital returns, or segment dominance.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$0$0$0$0
10%$0$0$0$0
12%$0$0$0$0
14%$0$0$0$0

Bull Case

    Bear Case

    • Trading 100% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
    • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion

    📐 Model Inputs

    Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
    Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
    Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
    Base Free Cash Flow$-100.32MNormalized (8% margin)
    Bear g×0.8, r+2%
    Base Historical CAGR
    Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
    ⚡ Reinvestor Mode: FCF margin is -36.1% (below 5% threshold). Using Revenue × 8% to reflect long-term earnings power.
    ℹ️

    DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses normalized FCF (Revenue × 8%) due to reinvestment-suppressed margins. See FAQ below for full methodology.

    Related Analysis

    Full Stock ProfileCompare NVAX vs AAPLStock Screener

    Frequently Asked Questions

    Is NVAX stock undervalued or overvalued?
    🟢 UNDERVALUED

    NVAX trades at $7.78 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $18.35, implying +147% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 25.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of NVAX's future cash flows. The bear case ($12.72) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

    What is NVAX's intrinsic value?

    Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $-100M, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $-300M net debt and dividing by 0.15B shares: Bear $12.72 | Base $18.35 | Bull $26.66. Current price $7.78 implies +147% to base case.

    How is NVAX's fair value calculated?

    DCF Methodology:

    ① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap). Note: FCF is normalized to 8% of revenue due to reinvestment-suppressed margins.

    ② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

    ③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

    ④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($2.49B).

    ⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

    Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation.

    ⚡ Reinvestor Mode: NVAX's FCF margin (-36.1%) is below 5% due to heavy reinvestment. We use normalized FCF (Revenue × 8% target margin) to reflect long-term earnings power rather than temporarily suppressed cash flows.