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MRNAModerna, Inc.
$254.19$100.9B
Overview & Tools
OverviewChart Terminal ↗Visualize
Valuation & Forecasts
Valuation ModelsEstimatesDCF Model
Price & Analyst Data
Analyst TargetsPrice History
Financial Statements
Income StatementBalance SheetCash FlowRatios & Margins
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P/E HistoryRevenue HistoryEarnings HistoryDividend HistoryTotal Return
Discovery & Screens
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MRNA logo

Moderna, Inc.

MRNA
NASDAQ · Vaccines & Infectious Disease
$254.19
At close - Nov 6, 4:00 PM EST - USD
Market Cap$100.86B
P/E-39.2x
52W High$267.50
Volume16.17M
OverviewTerminalAnalysisFinancialsValuationEarningsBreakoutsOwnership
VCP Research Verdict2026Q2

Cash Burn Deepens as Revenue Collapses

Moderna's transition from pandemic-driven demand to a seasonal commercial market has resulted in a severe revenue contraction, with 2026Q2 revenue of $145M down 85% from 2024Q3's $1.9B.

GrowthDecelerating
ProfitabilityNegative
ValuationReview
TechnicalsStrong
Explore valuation models
MARKET ACTION

MRNA price & volume

Price trend, volume and key moving averages

Launch Terminal
Loading chart...
Decision Checklist4 Core Signals

What matters now

The signals most likely to change the investment case.

01

Earnings momentum

12/12 Beats

EPS beat 12 of last 12 quarters

02

Valuation risk

-207% Peers

P/E is 207% below peer median

03

Market leadership

RS 99 · Leader

High momentum (Outperforming 99% of market)

04

Strong Uptrend

Strong Trend

Price > 20DMA > 50DMA > 200DMA

Next CatalystEstimated earnings · Feb 6
01

Build the investment case

Start with the evidence for owning the stock and the risks that can break the thesis.

EXECUTIVE THESIS

The Investment Case

Full Analysis
Fundamental Trajectory

Revenue has collapsed from $1.9B in 2024Q3 to $145M in 2026Q2, with gross margin deteriorating to 35.9% and net losses of -$782M in the latest quarter.

Analyst Consensus-47.8% target
Hold(29 analysts)
7 Buy16 Hold6 Sell

The Bull Case

Upside Catalysts

Expanding mRNA product pipeline

Moderna is expected to launch over ten products by 2035, with a focus on respiratory vaccines and immuno-oncology, driving a Revenue CAGR of over +15% from 2026-2035.

Leadership in mRNA technology

Moderna specializes in mRNA therapeutics, leveraging its proprietary technology platform to develop innovative medicines, including vaccines and oncology treatments.

Advancements in oncology pipeline

Moderna is making progress in its personalized cancer vaccine program, including late-stage data and collaborations with Merck, positioning it as a leader in immuno-oncology.

The Bear Case

Key Downside Risks

Market performance

Price History →

Trailing total returns as of 11/7/2026, which may include dividends or other distributions. Benchmark is S&P 500 (^GSPC).

YTD Return
MRNA+723.69%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+7.63%
1-Year Return
MRNA+944.76%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+9.69%
3-Year Return
MRNA+252.70%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+80.00%
5-Year Return
MRNA+3.89%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+64.32%
02

Test the fundamentals

Check whether operating performance supports the current valuation.

VALUATION & INTRINSIC VALUE

Valuation Scenarios

Valuation Analysis
Trailing P/E5Y Low
-39.2x
Forward P/E
N/A
EV/EBITDA
N/A
FCF YieldCash Flow
N/A

Valuation vs 5-Year History

Multiple Range
Metric
Current
5Y Median
Historical Range
Percentile
P/E
-39.2x
9.0x
0th· Low
EV/EBITDA
N/A
7.7x
N/A
Price/FCF
N/A
16.3x
N/A
Current Multiple
5Y Median (50th %ile)

Intrinsic Value Scenarios

DCF Projection
Bear$6.51-97.4%
Base (Fair)$95.02-62.6%
Bull$8.56-96.6%
$6.51 Bear$95.02 Base$8.56 Bull
Current Market Price: $254.19
Trades at a 167.5% premium to Base DCF ($95.02)
Open DCF & Valuation Models →Chart Terminal ↗

Growth & profitability

Annual revenue & EPS trend
Revenue FY25
$1.94B-39.2% YoY
Net income FY25
-$2.82B+20.8% YoY
Free cash flow FY25
-$2.06B+49.1% YoY
Operating margin FY25
-158.1%-34.8 pts YoY
ROIC (FY25)-26.1%
Avg ROIC 5Y43.8%
ROE (TTM)-37.6%
Piotroski Score3 / 9
Financial Statements →
03

Monitor what changed

Recent results and news deserve attention only when they alter the forward view.

OPERATING RESULTS

Recent Earnings

Earnings History
EPS Beat Rate12/12 (100%)
Revenue Beat Rate10/12 (83%)
QuarterEPS (Act vs Est)Revenue (Act vs Est)
Q4 2026Latest
Nov 6, 2026
$0.38+134.5%
vs -$1.10
$1.3B+47.5%
vs $890M
Q3 2026
Jul 31, 2026
-$1.97+3.0%
vs -$2.03
$145M+40.9%
vs $103M
Q2 2026
May 1, 2026
-$3.40+23.6%
vs -$4.45
$389M+64.6%
vs $236M
Q1 2026
Feb 13, 2026
-$2.11+16.9%
vs -$2.54
$678M+6.7%
vs $635M
Historical baseline: 12 quarters analyzedGAAP / Adjusted
MARKET COVERAGE

Latest News

4 Stories
Zacks Investment Research·1d ago
Moderna (MRNA) Stock Hits 52-Week Highs After Q3 Earnings: Buy, Hold, or Sell?

Moderna stock has surged as much as 10% in Friday's trading session, reaching a fresh 52-week high after delivering much stronger-than-expected Q3 results.

Seeking Alpha·1d ago
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Moderna, Inc. ( MRNA ) Q3 2026 Earnings Call November 6, 2026 8:00 AM EST Company Participants Lavina Talukdar - Senior VP & Head of Investor Relations Stéphane Bancel - CEO & Director James Mock - Chief Financial Officer Stephen Hoge - President David Berman - Chief Development Officer Conference Call Participants Salveen Richter - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division Terence Flynn - Morgan Stanley, Research Division Eliana Merle - Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division Edward Tenthoff - Piper Sandler & Co., Research Division Alec Stranahan - BofA Securities, Research Division Myles Minter - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division Tyler Van Buren - TD Cowen, Research Division Lin Tsai - Jefferies LLC, Research Division Michael Yee - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division Courtney Breen - Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, Research Division Alexandria Hammond - Wolfe Research, LLC Jessica Fye - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division Luca Issi - RBC Capital Markets, Research Division Presentation Operator Good day, and thank you for standing by.

Zacks Investment Research·1d ago
MRNA Q3 Earnings Beat on COVID Sales, Raises '26 Outlook, Stock Rises

Moderna's Q3 earnings beat estimates on strong COVID-19 vaccine sales, returning to profitability and boosting its 2026 revenue growth outlook.

Reuters·1d ago
GSK, Moderna settle patent dispute over Moderna COVID, RSV shots

GSK, Moderna settle patent dispute over Moderna COVID, RSV shots

Filtered for Moderna, Inc.More Headlines
04

Compare before deciding

Benchmark MRNA against direct peers instead of judging its metrics in isolation.

Peers Comparison

Key metrics vs top competitors for Moderna, Inc. (MRNA)

Full Screener →
CompanyPriceMarket CapP/E RatioRev Growth (1Y)Net MarginROEDiv Yield
MRNA logoMRNAModerna, Inc.Current
$254.19$100.86B-39.19-39.23%-110.46%-37.62%—
BNTX logoBNTXBioNTech SE
$87.51$21.98B-13.430.2%-61.28%-8.06%—
NVAX logoNVAXNovavax, Inc.
$10.78$1.77B-23.1764.69%-18.64%——
PFE logoPFEPfizer Inc.
$29.39$167.51B41.91-1.65%6.34%4.58%5.85%
JNJ logoJNJJohnson & Johnson
$276.22$664.92B42.026.05%16.2%19.55%1.85%
AZN logoAZNAstraZeneca PLC
$186.43$290.83B26.478.63%17.68%22.18%1.71%

Compare MRNA vs Peers

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) vs competitors — business, growth, and fundamentals comparison against the closest industry rivals.

Closest Rival

vs BNTX

Most directly comparable listed peer for MRNA.

Scale Benchmark

vs JNJ

Larger-name benchmark to compare MRNA against a more recognizable public peer.

Peer Set

Compare Top 5

vs BNTX, NVAX, PFE, JNJ

05

Keep researching

Verify the primary filings, follow material updates, and answer the remaining questions.

MRNA SEC Filings & Documents

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) SEC filings — annual & quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q)

8-K Announcements

6
Material company update

Jul 31, 2026·SEC

Material company update

Jul 8, 2026·SEC

Material company update

May 11, 2026·SEC

10-K Annual Reports

2
FY 2026

Feb 20, 2026·SEC

FY 2025

Feb 21, 2025·SEC

10-Q Quarterly Reports

6
FY 2026

Jul 31, 2026·SEC

FY 2026

May 1, 2026·SEC

FY 2025

Nov 6, 2025·SEC

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MRNA Frequently Asked Questions

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) stock FAQ — growth, dividends, profitability & financials explained

Growth & Financials
What is Moderna, Inc.'s revenue?

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) reported $2.52B in revenue over the trailing twelve months. Revenue was $1.94B in fiscal year 2025. That is 1693% more than the $108.4M of fiscal year 2016.

How fast is Moderna, Inc. growing?

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) grew revenue by 13.7% over the trailing twelve months, compared with the twelve months before.

Is MRNA profitable?

No. Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) reported a net loss of $2.79B over the trailing twelve months.

Dividend & Returns
What is MRNA's return on equity?

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) had a return on equity (ROE) of -37.6% over the trailing twelve months. A negative ROE means the company lost money over the period.

What is Moderna, Inc.'s free cash flow?

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) had negative free cash flow of $1.95B over the trailing twelve months.

What if you invested $1,000 in MRNA back in 2016?

Total return calculator · dividends reinvested · 10+ years of data

See returns →