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MRNAModerna, Inc.
$182.56$72.3B
Overview & Tools
OverviewChart Terminal ↗Visualize
Valuation & Forecasts
Valuation ModelsEstimatesDCF Model
Price & Analyst Data
Analyst TargetsPrice History
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Income StatementBalance SheetCash FlowRatios & Margins
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P/E HistoryRevenue HistoryEarnings HistoryDividend HistoryTotal Return
Discovery & Screens
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MRNA logo

Moderna, Inc.

MRNA
NASDAQ · Biotechnology
$182.56
At close - Sep 22, 4:00 PM EDT - USD
Market Cap$72.44B
P/E-25.1x
52W High$187.20
Volume23.71M
OverviewTerminalAnalysisFinancialsValuationEarningsBreakoutsOwnership
VCP Research Verdict2026Q2

Cash Burn Deepens as Revenue Collapses

Moderna's transition from pandemic-driven demand to a seasonal commercial market has resulted in a severe revenue contraction, with 2026Q2 revenue of $145M down 85% from 2024Q3's $1.9B. The company's fixed-cost manufacturing footprint and persistent R&D spendi...

GrowthDecelerating
ProfitabilityNegative
ValuationReview
TechnicalsStrong
Explore valuation models
MARKET ACTION

MRNA price & volume

Price trend, volume and key moving averages

Launch Terminal
Loading chart...
Decision Checklist4 Core Signals

What matters now

The signals most likely to change the investment case.

01

Earnings momentum

11/12 Beats

EPS beat 11 of last 12 quarters

02

Valuation risk

-212% Peers

P/E is 212% below peer median

03

Market leadership

RS 98 · Leader

High momentum (Outperforming 98% of market)

04

Strong Uptrend

Strong Trend

Price > 20DMA > 50DMA > 200DMA

Next CatalystEstimated earnings · Oct 31
01

Build the investment case

Start with the evidence for owning the stock and the risks that can break the thesis.

EXECUTIVE THESIS

The Investment Case

Full Analysis
Fundamental Trajectory

Revenue has collapsed from $1.9B in 2024Q3 to $145M in 2026Q2, with gross margin deteriorating to 35.9% and net losses of -$782M in the latest quarter.

Analyst Consensus-36.5% target
Hold(29 analysts)
8 Buy16 Hold5 Sell

The Bull Case

Upside Catalysts

Expanding mRNA product pipeline

Moderna is expected to launch over ten products by 2035, with a focus on respiratory vaccines and immuno-oncology, driving a Revenue CAGR of over +15% from 2026-2035.

Leadership in mRNA technology

Moderna specializes in mRNA therapeutics, leveraging its proprietary technology platform to develop innovative medicines, including vaccines and oncology treatments.

Advancements in oncology pipeline

Moderna is making progress in its personalized cancer vaccine program, including late-stage data and collaborations with Merck, positioning it as a leader in immuno-oncology.

The Bear Case

Key Downside Risks

Market performance

Price History →

Trailing total returns as of 9/23/2026, which may include dividends or other distributions. Benchmark is S&P 500 (^GSPC).

YTD Return
MRNA+491.57%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+13.20%
1-Year Return
MRNA+587.35%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+15.98%
3-Year Return
MRNA+82.58%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+89.99%
5-Year Return
MRNA-58.58%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+81.80%
02

Test the fundamentals

Check whether operating performance supports the current valuation.

VALUATION & INTRINSIC VALUE

Valuation Scenarios

Valuation Analysis
Trailing P/E5Y Low
-25.1x
Forward P/E
N/A
EV/EBITDA
N/A
FCF YieldCash Flow
N/A

Valuation vs 5-Year History

Multiple Range
Metric
Current
5Y Median
Historical Range
Percentile
P/E
-25.1x
9.0x
0th· Low
EV/EBITDA
N/A
7.7x
N/A
Price/FCF
N/A
16.3x
N/A
Current Multiple
5Y Median (50th %ile)

Intrinsic Value Scenarios

DCF Projection
Bear$6.77-96.3%
Base (Fair)$88.13-42.8%
Bull$9.03-95.1%
$6.77 Bear$88.13 Base$9.03 Bull
Current Market Price: $182.56
Trades at a 107.1% premium to Base DCF ($88.13)
Open DCF & Valuation Models →Chart Terminal ↗

Growth & profitability

Annual revenue & EPS trend
Revenue
$1.94B-39.2% YoY
Net income
-$2.82B+20.8% YoY
Free cash flow
-$2.06B+49.1% YoY
Operating margin
-158.1%-34.8 pts YoY
ROIC (TTM)-26.1%
Avg ROIC 5Y-
ROE (TTM)-28.9%
Piotroski Score3 / 9
Financial Statements →
03

Monitor what changed

Recent results and news deserve attention only when they alter the forward view.

OPERATING RESULTS

Recent Earnings

Earnings History
EPS Beat Rate11/12 (92%)
Revenue Beat Rate10/12 (83%)
QuarterEPS (Act vs Est)Revenue (Act vs Est)
Q3 2026Latest
Jul 31, 2026
-$1.97+3.0%
vs -$2.03
$145M+40.9%
vs $103M
Q2 2026
May 1, 2026
-$3.40+23.6%
vs -$4.45
$389M+64.6%
vs $236M
Q1 2026
Feb 13, 2026
-$2.11+16.9%
vs -$2.54
$678M+6.7%
vs $635M
Q4 2025
Nov 6, 2025
-$0.51+72.7%
vs -$1.87
$1.0B+10.3%
vs $921M
Historical baseline: 12 quarters analyzedGAAP / Adjusted
MARKET COVERAGE

Latest News

5 Stories
Barrons·8h ago
Moderna CEO's Surprising Comment Gives Clues About Where Drugmaker Is Going Next

Moderna stock heads for its highest close since 2023 after CEO Stéphane Bancel says the drugmaker ‘has never been' just a Covid vaccine company.

Seeking Alpha·8h ago
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Presents at Bernstein Insights: Healthcare Leaders and Disruptors - 3rd Annual Healthcare Forum Transcript

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Presents at Bernstein Insights: Healthcare Leaders and Disruptors - 3rd Annual Healthcare Forum Transcript

MarketBeat·10h ago
Moderna Eyes Cancer Vaccine Filing as It Expands Beyond COVID

Moderna NASDAQ: MRNA executives emphasized the company's evolution beyond COVID-19 vaccines during a discussion with Bernstein, highlighting its mRNA platform, personalized cancer vaccine program intismeran, rare-disease pipeline and plans to expand therapeutics development.

The Motley Fool·1d ago
Is Moderna Stock a Buy After Its Melanoma Breakthrough?

Moderna (MRNA +5.87%) may finally have the catalyst investors have been waiting for beyond COVID. A successful Phase 3 melanoma study strengthens the case for personalized mRNA cancer treatment, but the stock's huge rerating now leaves one question dominant: Can this become a durable oncology franchise, or has the market moved faster than the evidence?

Filtered for Moderna, Inc.More Headlines
04

Compare before deciding

Benchmark MRNA against direct peers instead of judging its metrics in isolation.

Peers Comparison

Key metrics vs top competitors for Moderna, Inc. (MRNA)

Full Screener →
CompanyPriceMarket CapP/E RatioRev Growth (1Y)Net MarginROEDiv Yield
MRNA logoMRNAModerna, Inc.Current
$182.56$72.44B-25.15-39.23%-145.16%-28.87%—
BNTX logoBNTXBioNTech SE
$100.87$25.34B-19.500.2%-64.02%-9.13%—
NVAX logoNVAXNovavax, Inc.
$10.83$1.78B4.2664.69%-59.87%——
CVAC logoCVACCureVac N.V.
$4.66$1.05B6.47895.54%37.93%33.02%—
PFE logoPFEPfizer Inc.
$27.93$159.19B20.54-1.65%6.81%4.87%—
JNJ logoJNJJohnson & Johnson
$269.19$648B24.416.05%21.58%25.75%—

Compare MRNA vs Peers

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) vs competitors — business, growth, and fundamentals comparison against the closest industry rivals.

Closest Rival

vs BNTX

Most directly comparable listed peer for MRNA.

Scale Benchmark

vs JNJ

Larger-name benchmark to compare MRNA against a more recognizable public peer.

Peer Set

Compare Top 5

vs BNTX, NVAX, CVAC, PFE

05

Keep researching

Verify the primary filings, follow material updates, and answer the remaining questions.

MRNA SEC Filings & Documents

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) SEC filings — annual & quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q)

8-K Announcements

6
Material company update

Jul 31, 2026·SEC

Material company update

Jul 8, 2026·SEC

Material company update

May 11, 2026·SEC

10-K Annual Reports

2
FY 2026

Feb 20, 2026·SEC

FY 2025

Feb 21, 2025·SEC

10-Q Quarterly Reports

6
FY 2026

Jul 31, 2026·SEC

FY 2026

May 1, 2026·SEC

FY 2025

Nov 6, 2025·SEC

Get notified when MRNA posts new earnings or crosses analyst targets

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MRNA Frequently Asked Questions

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) stock FAQ — growth, dividends, profitability & financials explained

Growth & Financials
What is Moderna, Inc.'s revenue?

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) reported $2.23B in revenue for fiscal year 2025. This represents a 1955% increase from $108.4M in 2016.

How fast is Moderna, Inc. growing?

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) saw revenue decline by 39.2% over the past year.

Is MRNA profitable?

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) reported a net loss of $3.15B for fiscal year 2025.

Dividend & Returns
What is MRNA's return on equity?

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) has a return on equity (ROE) of -28.9%. Negative ROE indicates the company is unprofitable.

What is Moderna, Inc.'s free cash flow?

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) had negative free cash flow of $1.22B in fiscal year 2025, likely due to heavy capital investments.

What if you invested $1,000 in MRNA back in 2016?

Total return calculator · dividends reinvested · 10+ years of data

See returns →