MODEL VERDICT
Ascent Industries Co. (ACNT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 15 analyst estimates | $13.32 | -22.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 12 industry peers | $34.31 | +101.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 12 industry peers | $34.45 | +101.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 18 industry peers | $7.34 | -57.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 18 industry peers | $8.06 | -52.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 12 industry peers | $34.06 | +99.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.63 | +9.1% | 100% | 69 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 6.65 | 5.88 | 3.63 | 11.21 | 3.54 |
| EV/EBIT | 1048.64 | 12.42 | 9.49 | 4160.21 | 2074.38 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.59 | 8.40 | 6.79 | 55.91 | 21.07 |
| P/FCF | 12.27 | 6.91 | 4.80 | 41.34 | 14.38 |
| P/FFO | 7.31 | 5.91 | 2.97 | 14.45 | 5.00 |
| P/TBV | 1.33 | 1.31 | 0.80 | 1.84 | 0.41 |
| P/AFFO | 19.37 | 19.28 | 3.35 | 35.58 | 17.40 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.08 | 1.09 | 0.67 | 1.44 | 0.28 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.45 | 0.46 | 0.28 | 0.64 | 0.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates ACNT's fair value at $18.63 vs the current price of $17.07, implying +9.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.17 (P10) to $20.57 (P90), with a median of $14.47.
ACNT's current P/E of -12.7x compares to the industry median of 22.7x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -156.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 6.7x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
4 analysts cover ACNT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $18.00 (range: $18.00 — $18.00), implying +5.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ACNT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.