MODEL VERDICT
Alpha Cognition Inc. Common Stock (ACOG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $8.18 | +66.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 5 bank peers | $8.10 | +64.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.49 | +52.3% | 100% | 50 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 4 valuation metrics, the model estimates ACOG's fair value at $7.49 vs the current price of $4.92, implying +52.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 50/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.24 (P10) to $12.17 (P90), with a median of $8.11.
ACOG's current P/E of -2.4x compares to the industry median of 12.1x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -120.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover ACOG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $18.00 (range: $18.00 — $18.00), implying +265.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 50/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ACOG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.