MODEL VERDICT
Affinity Bancshares, Inc. (AFBI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 290 industry peers | $12.31 | -40.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 308 industry peers | $25.16 | +22.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 308 bank peers | $25.68 | +25.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 290 industry peers | $12.31 | -40.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $24.09 | +17.5% | 100% | 75 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (30%) | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 | $31 |
| Conservative (48%) | $26 | $28 | $31 | $33 | $36 |
| Base Case (74.3%) | $30 | $33 | $36 | $39 | $42 |
| Bull Case (100%) | $35 | $38 | $42 | $45 | $48 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 67.35 | 21.08 | 14.13 | 221.90 | 86.86 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.50 | 15.13 | 4.46 | 93.89 | 33.49 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.85 | 10.80 | 4.18 | 25.28 | 7.39 |
| P/FCF | 32.50 | 17.30 | 9.71 | 73.88 | 28.03 |
| P/FFO | 29.20 | 17.96 | 12.97 | 63.49 | 23.39 |
| P/TBV | 1.03 | 1.04 | 0.95 | 1.10 | 0.04 |
| P/AFFO | 29.76 | 18.39 | 14.43 | 91.22 | 30.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.90 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 1.02 | 0.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.14 | 2.96 | 2.09 | 4.72 | 1.07 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates AFBI's fair value at $24.09 vs the current price of $20.50, implying +17.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $24.09 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.26 (P10) to $39.68 (P90), with a median of $24.83.
AFBI's current P/E of 24.7x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (290 peers in the group). This represents a +66.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 67.4x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for AFBI.
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AFBI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.